Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 7 – UPDATED)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

We’re back to essentially two options in cash games at this point in the week. As always seems to be the case, we start with Lamar Jackson. He’s coming off of his worst game of the season, scoring 13.78 DK points against the Los Angeles Chargers. With that being said, Jackson still ranks third on the slate in DK points per game (26.6) this season. He wasn’t needed in the easy win last week, as he saw only 27 pass attempts with 8 rushing attempts. He threw only 1 touchdown in that game, as well. Jackson gets an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who’ve seen mixed results against quarterbacks this season. Still, the Baltimore Ravens own one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, and Jackson ranks second in Karma Rating on our Projections Portal this weekend.

The second option should come as no surprise. Patrick Mahomes continues to be an outstanding cash game option. He leads this slate in DK points per game (28.6), and he’s the second-most expensive option. Mahomes’ scored 22+ DK points in each of his 6 games, while flashing 35+ DK point upside. He gets a great matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who rank eighth-last in the NFL in airYAC allowed (1,730) this season. The Kansas City Chiefs offense runs through Mahomes, and he’s an elite option if you can get to his price tag this weekend.

GPP

One of the safest tournament options this week is Matthew Stafford. He’s been a safe option throughout his first season with the Los Angeles Rams, while flashing 30+ DK point upside. He gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions, who’ve allowed the seventh-most air yards in the league this season. As is the case most weeks, the Rams feature one of the highest implied totals on the slate. Stafford’s safe enough to be considered in cash games, although I prefer him in tournaments, as he’s a tier below Jackson and Mahomes.

The Washington Football Team’s allowed a league-high 1,228 air yards, which is nearly 200 higher than the next highest team. They’ve also allowed the most airYAC (1,904) this season. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been a dominant option this season, but he’s flashed at times. This is an ideal matchup for him, and he’s one of the best GPP options on the slate. I nearly wrote up Joe Burrow, but I slightly prefer Matt Ryan. After a rough Week 1, Ryan’s quietly looked good, scoring 29.02 and 24.58 DK points in his last two games. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who’ve struggled with both air yards (1,029) and YAC (812) in 2021. Tom Brady, Jalen Hurts, and Derek Carr can be considered in GPPs, as well.

UPDATE

Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are my favorite cash game options at quarterback this week. With that being said, Jalen Hurts is gaining steam, and he has an outstanding floor at the position. He’s a third option you can consider in cash games. I’m sticking with the same pool in GPPs with Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan being my favorites. I also think you can add Ryan Tannehill and Sam Darnold for their prices, although these are deeper GPP plays in my opinion.

Running Backs

Cash

Cash games start with Derrick Henry, who’s the best fantasy running back in the NFL by a wide margin at this point. He’s seeing a massive role in the offense, totaling 20+ touches in every game, topping out at 41 touches against the Seattle Seahawks. Henry gets a plus matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 133.2 rushing yards per game this season. There’s some concern that Tennessee could get down early in this game, but it’s unlikely they move away from Henry as their primary gameplan regardless of the score early in the game.

As I mentioned above, the Los Angeles Rams feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. Darrell Henderson gets a matchup against the Detroit Lions, who are only allowing 4.3 yards per carry this season. With that being said, they’re giving up 132.2 rushing yards per game because they’re generally losing, which should be the case again this week. Darrel Williams is playing a massive role in the Kansas City offense with Clyde Edwards-Helaire injured, and he’s too cheap once again. D’Andre Swift, Chuba Hubbard, and Leonard Fournette are three more options I’d consider in cash games on this slate.

GPP

For what it’s worth, the three players I mentioned at the end of the cash game section can also be used in GPPs on this slate. If Saquon Barkley is out again, Devontae Booker makes an interesting option. He’s seen 35 touches, including 8 targets, over his last 2 games. Although Booker hasn’t flashed, the way to beat the Carolina Panthers’ defense is with your rushing attack, as they’re giving up 4.7 yards per carry. He’ll make a volume option if he’s the featured back once again. Damien Harris predictably struggled in his 2 toughest matchups of the season, but he’s averaging 15.2 DK points per game in his other 4 contests. He’s also coming off of a 20.8 DK point performance. Harris gets a great matchup against the New York Jets, who he already performed well against this season. He’s relatively touchdown-dependent, but this is a great matchup to find his ceiling.

Josh Jacobs gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, but he’s locked into a big role for the Las Vegas Raiders. He isn’t overly safe in this particular matchup, but he boasts tremendous upside, specifically with his touchdown potential. Cordarrelle Patterson isn’t a cheap option anymore, but this is an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins. He’s playing a hybrid role of running back and wide receiver, as he’s seen 41 carries with 31 targets through 5 games. Patterson’s role makes him an elite option, even with the increased price tag. Chase Edmonds and James Conner both get great matchups against the Houston Texans. I slightly prefer Conner, who sees the bigger role in the red zone and when Arizona is leading. He’s an extremely touchdown-dependent option, though. Aaron Jones is another running back, who can be considered in tournaments this weekend.

UPDATE

I think I nailed this position pretty well early in the week, although there’s one major thing I may have missed. It looks as if the cash pairing with be Darrell Henderson and Darrel Williams with people spending up elsewhere than on Derrick Henry. Henry will certainly feature ownership because of his name, but he won’t be owned nearly as high as he should be. He’s an elite tournament option. Miles Sanders is expected to see a bigger role, and he can be considered, as well. I’m not sure at this point in the week if I’d consider trusting him in cash games, but he’s a solid play nonetheless. The other small adjustment I’m making is adding Mike Davis to my GPP pool, as well.

Wide Receivers

Cash

The top cash game options at wide receiver are expensive this weekend. Cooper Kupp’s seeing an elite target share regardless of the game script or matchup. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who don’t feature anyone defensively that will be able to guard him. Davante Adams is another focal point of his offense. As I mentioned above, I want to attack the Washington Football Team’s pass defense, and Adams should be peppered with targets after a down game last weekend. If you can get to the top of this position, which may be difficult, Kupp and Adams are two elite options in all leagues.

Calvin Ridley gets an elite matchup against a weak Miami Dolphins defense. He’s seeing plenty of targets, and they should sit in the double-digits once again this weekend. Ridley’s price has overcorrected this weekend, and he’s an elite option in all leagues. Robert Woods is an interesting option, as he’s clearly the second receiver behind Kupp. With that being said, he’s significantly cheaper, and he’s a solid way to get a piece of this offense. D.J. Moore’s struggled the last couple of weeks, but he’s seeing tremendous volume, and this is a fine matchup against the New York Giants. He’ll continue to be the focal point of the offense with Christian McCaffrey injured. Rashod Bateman saw 6 targets in his NFL debut last weekend, and he could see his role increase as the season progresses. You’re going to need to save salary somewhere, and Bateman is entirely too cheap on this slate.

GPP

AJ Brown is a leverage play off of Derrick Henry this weekend. Although I like Henry, there is a scenario where Kansas City gets an early lead and the Tennessee Titans are throwing the majority of the second half. The Chiefs don’t feature an elite defense, and it’s only a matter of time before Brown flashed his previous form. The Baltimore Ravens are no longer an elite defense, leaving the Cincinnati Bengals receivers as great options this season. Ja’Marr Chase is my favorite, as he’s flashed tremendously as a rookie in 2021. I’m also interested in Tyler Boyd, as Baltimore’s struggled with YAC this season. Keep in mind, Tee Higgins can be used in GPPs, as well, but he’s currently my third option for Cincinnati.

I don’t love the matchup for Brandin Cooks, but it’s impossible to ignore his volume. As he’s done throughout his entire career, he’s proving he can find success with any quarterback and team. He’s still surprisingly cheap, making him a great tournament option in a game the Houston Texans should be forced to throw early and often. I’m interested in both Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney for their price tags. The Chicago Bears should be throwing throughout the game, giving both plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. I prefer Mooney for slightly cheaper at this point, though. On the other side, I’m interested in Chris Godwin with Antonio Brown and Mike Evans making solid options behind him Marquise Brown and Terry McLaurin can also be considered this weekend.

UPDATE

I’d likely move Robert Woods out of the cash game conversation, although he can still be used in GPPs. The rest of the players listed above, along with Sterling Shepard and Mecole Hardman can be considered in cash games. Chris Godwin is viable, as well, with Antonio Brown out, although I slightly prefer him in GPPs. Nico Collins can also be added to the GPP pool with an absurdly low price tag, but there is plenty of risk with him as a play.