Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 5 – UPDATED)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

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Quarterback’s an interesting position because you’re likely only going one of two ways this weekend. If you’re paying up, Kyler Murray’s the top option. He’s struggled in each of his last 2 games, scoring 20+ DK points in both contests. His elite rushing potential adds to his floor, while the majority of Arizona’s offensive production runs through him. Murray isn’t going to come cheap, but he boasts the highest projected points on our Projections Portal this weekend. If you can’t get to Murray’s salary, Daniel Jones is the next top option. He’s scored 22+ DK points in 3 of his 4 games this season, including 29.46 and 30.78 DK point performances. More importantly, Jones boasts a quietly rushing floor, averaging 47 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 6.8 carries per game. Furthermore, he’s been airing the ball out early this season. Jones gets an interesting matchup against an improved Dallas Cowboys defense, who allowed Sam Darnold to run for a pair of touchdowns last week.

This is an ideal week to check back with this article for its Friday update. If Jimmy Garoppolo is ruled out, Trey Lance will likely become cheap chalk over Jones. Lance needed only 39 snaps to throw for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns in relief against the Seattle Seahawks last week. More importantly, he added 41 yards only 7 carries in that game. Although the rookie will have some growing pains, it’s impossible to avoid his potential at such a low price tag. He also gets a plus matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in a game that could be the highest scoring on the slate.

GPP

I have Dak Prescott listed as a “safe GPP” option, and I’d likely hold him there over cash games this weekend. I expect him to garner some ownership in cash, but his questionable volume adds too much risk, even in a good matchup. The Dallas Cowboys have the highest implied team total on the slate, although Prescott hasn’t recorded more than 30 pass attempts since Week 1. He’s posted 7 touchdowns on only 48 pass attempts over the last 2 weeks, although he recorded 35 rushing yards against the Carolina Panthers. He’s in a great spot, but he should be used in GPPs with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard eating into his potential usage.

Joe Burrow is quietly in a great spot this weekend. He’ll get Tee Higgins back, and he’s facing off against the Green Bay Packers, who will likely be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander. Green Bay ranks in the bottom third of the NFL in pressure percentage (23.5%), and the Cincinnati Bengals could lean more on Burrow with Joe Mixon injured. This matchup doesn’t look elite on paper, but it’s quietly a perfect storm for Burrow and company. Taylor Heinicke is another player in a sneaky situation. The New Orleans Saints feature one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and they’ve performed well against quarterbacks in 2021. With that being said, they’re 1,209 airYAC (air yards + yards after the catch, shoutout Matthew Freedman) this season. Heinicke’s been an outstanding fantasy option that goes overlooked on a seemingly weekly basis, and the Washington offense should focus around him in this matchup. Other tournament options I’d consider include Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, and Tom Brady. 

UPDATE

It looks as if Jimmy Garoppolo is going to sit out this week, solidifying Trey Lance as an elite option, specifically in cash games. He boasts an elite rushing floor, and his price tag will open up elite options at other positions. If you aren’t willing to trust the rookie in his first NFL start, Kyler Murray continues to be the safest option at quarterback. Once again, he’s an elite option on this slate. If you need to save a bit of salary without using Lance, I’ll continue to consider Daniel Jones a viable option, even in cash games.

Dak Prescott could garner some ownership on this slate, although I solely prefer him in GPPs compared to cash. Even then, I’ll likely end up underweight on him. Joe Burrow and Taylor Heinicke continue to be my favorite options in GPPs at this position. On top of the final four listed in the paragraph above, I’ll add Derek Carr as a viable option in tournaments this week. The Chicago Bears are struggling against somewhat of limited volume, and Carr comes with tremendous upside if he’s forced to throw the ball his usual number of times.

Running Backs

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There are several high-priced running backs that can be considered in cash games this weekend. Derrick Henry is arguably the top option. He’s averaged 35.7 touches per game over his last 3 games, and Henry gets an elite matchup against a bad Jacksonville Jaguars defense. He’s the safest of the high-priced options. Christian McCaffrey is expected to return to the Carolina Panthers lineup this week. If he does, he’s entirely too cheap for his role. The third option that can be considered here is Dalvin Cook. He’s another player that needs to be announced as healthy prior to the slate, though. He returned last week, recording limited touches. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions. It isn’t often that you can get three elite running backs in great matchups with reasonable price tags, but this could be a double spend-up at the position type of week.

You don’t necessarily have to pay up at the position, though. Najee Harris is a bit cheaper, and his elite role as a receiver in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense gives him a great floor. Over his last 3 games, Harris’ seen 31 targets including several in the red zone. He boasts elite usage for the position, and it likely won’t be long until he’s priced significantly higher. Leonard Fournette saw 20 rush attempts last week along with 5 targets. Overall, he posted 138 yards in that game. Fournette could be due for positive touchdown regression, and he gets a great matchup against a weak Miami Dolphins defense. He’s the clear-cut salary relief option on this slate. If Joe Mixon is out this week, Samaje Perine would make a solid salary relief option for the minimum price.

GPP

Once again I’m going back to Nick Chubb in tournaments. He’s posted 20+ carries in each of his last 2 games, although he hasn’t truly flashed his elite upside. Chubb gets a great matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who love to run two deep safeties, daring opponents to run on them. Kareem Hunt can also be considered in this matchup, as he’s another massive part of the Cleveland Browns offense. Keep in mind, you shouldn’t play Chubb and Hunt together, but rather one or the other. David Montgomery suffered an injury in the Chicago Bears last game, leaving Damien Williams to take a significantly larger role this weekend. He needed only 10 touches to post 15 DK points in Week 4, and he gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders this weekend. Williams is a versatile option, and only rookie Khalil Herbert sits behind him on the depth chart. If Williams is getting a workhorse role for Chicago this weekend, he’s an outstanding option for under $6k.

Two of the best options play against each other this weekend. Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley will face off, and they both make great options. Elliott looks refreshed and in arguably the best shape of his career early this season. Barkley also finally looks fully healthy, scoring 29.6 and 21.4 DK points in his last 2 games. Damien Harris is coming off two terrible games against arguably the top run defenses in the NFL. He gets a significantly easier matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend, and he should return to his normal role. D’Andre Swift, Chase Edmonds, and Aaron Jones can also be considered in GPPs on this slate.

UPDATE

There are still plenty of injuries that haven’t been decided at the moment, and you can get in our free Discord where we discuss this news at all times. With that being said, there seems to be a clear duo in cash games this week with Derrick Henry and Leonard Fournette. These are the top options that you’ll likely be using this weekend. If Dalvin Cook is ruled out, Alexander Mattison will become the third chalky option. If he’s starting, Najee Harris or James Robinson can be considered as the RB3 in cash games. I prefer Harris of the duo.

Surprisingly, I haven’t changed my GPP thoughts much at all this weekend. The only note here is that Chase Edmonds is questionable, and James Conner would be viable if Edmonds misses. If only because of his touchdown potential.

Wide Receivers

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If you can get to the top of receiver, Davante Adams is the top option. He’s seeing plenty of air yards for the Green Bay Packers, and this game could stay close throughout with the Packers dealing with defensive injuries. If that’s the case, Adams could continue to see around 15 targets. He boasts a floor that other receivers don’t have because of his potential volume. If Christian McCaffrey is out, D.J. Moore will make a great option again. He played snaps in the backfield, especially in the red zone, in the form of McCaffrey’s role. That’d likely happen once again this weekend. Regardless of CMC, he’s found plenty of success early this season, and the Philadelphia Eagles don’t possess anyone in their secondary that will slow him down.

Tee Higgins is one of the most mispriced players on the slate. He’s expected to return from injury, and he gets a plus matchup against an injured Green Bay defense. Ja’Marr Chase is another Cincinnati Bengal that I’d be willing to play in cash games. Keenan Allen’s another player that simply comes with too low of a price tag, and as he’s seen 11+ targets in 3 of his 4 games this season. Laviska Shenault is a bit too cheap with DJ Chark injured, as he saw extra usage after the Chark injury last week. He also gets a plus matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Amari Cooper and Deebo Samuel can be considered in cash games, as well.

GPP

Arguably my favorite play on this entire slate is Justin Jefferson. He’s going a bit overlooked because of his price tag, but he gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, who don’t feature anyone that will be able to slow him down. He’s posted 18+ DK points in each of his last 3 games, but he hasn’t flashed his true upside over that span. The only major concern with him is volume, as this game could get out of hand early on. If Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are out, Kadarius Toney will make an elite option. He’s flashed tremendous YAC ability last week, and the Dallas Cowboys have given up the second-most YAC this season.

There are several other receivers that can be considered, specifically in GPPs this weekend. Jaylen Waddle is a cheap option who sticks out. He’s seeing plenty of volume, although he hasn’t been producing overly well. He gets a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who are allowing the most airYAC in the NFL this season. CeeDee Lamb is coming off of a terrible game, which could keep his ownership a bit low this weekend, but he’s in an elite matchup. Chris Godwin, Adam Thielen, and Marvin Jones are three more great options in GPPs. Curtis Samuel can also be considered, as he should see roughly 50% of the snaps this weekend, and he’s the minimum price.

UPDATE

The cash game options at WR have shifted quite a bit throughout the week. Davante Adams continues to be a lock with Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb both projecting to command ownership. Although I believe both can be considered, I’m slightly lower on the Dallas passing attack than most. Jakobi Meyers is in an elite matchup, and he’s been a target monster for New England in recent games. Keenan Allen continues to be underpriced, while Tee Higgins and Laviska Shenault are two salary relief options that can be considered in all leagues. Although DJ Moore is expensive, I trust him in all leagues with Christian McCaffrey ruled out, as he’s going to see snaps in the backfield, specifically in the red zone, one again.

Pivoting off of Adams to Justin Jefferson in GPPs is one of my favorite tournament routes on this slate. Kadarius Toney is also in an elite spot with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton officially ruled out. Ultimately, I still like everyone listed above. The one player that I’ve become extremely bullish on is Henry Ruggs. As I mentioned at QB, I love the matchup against the Chicago Bears, and he leads the Raiders in YAC/R and % of air yards. He’s far too cheap for his role with Las Vegas, and he’s an elite boom or bust option in tournaments.