Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 3 – UPDATED)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

Quarterback feels relatively simple in cash games this week. You’re taking the rushing floor of two high-priced options – Kyler Murray or Lamar Jackson. Murray’s been playing at an elite level early this season, scoring 35+ DK points in both of his games. He boasts a rushing touchdown in each game, as well. He’s the safest option on this slate, and Murray’s the top play if you can get to his price tag. Jackson hasn’t been as consistent, scoring 20 DK points in his first game before dropping 37.26 against the Kansas City Chiefs in primetime. The most important aspect of his success is that he owns 28 rushing attempts in that pair of games this season. The only downfall from Murray and Jackson is that they are both -7.5 point favorites, suggesting they won’t be needed for the entire game this weekend. With that being said, they are so featured in their respective offenses that if they’re winning by a wide margin, it’s likely to be because of them, and they’re the best cash options.

If you aren’t sold on the safety of Murray and Jackson, you’re still likely paying up for a quarterback in cash. Patrick Mahomes is the top option, as he’s in an elite offensive system with elite arm talent. Mahomes’ posted 28+ DK points in each of his games this season, and Kansas City continues to rely on him in any type of matchup. The major concern here is that the Los Angeles Chargers feature one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. With that being said, this game has sneaky shootout potential, although I’d personally prefer Mahomes in small-field SE GPPs rather than 50/50s and H2Hs. Keep in mind, these are three of the top four projected scoring quarterbacks in our Projections Portal this weekend.

GPP

There are several ways to go in tournaments on this slate without any individual quarterback sticking out well above the rest. Russell Wilson continues to be one of the most efficient options in the NFL, and the Seattle Seahawks are utilizing more play-action this season. He gets a plus matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who feature a defense he should have no issues manipulating this weekend. Speaking of good matchups, Justin Herbert will face off against the Kansas City Chiefs, who’ve struggled defensively early this season. He’ll likely be throwing from behind for the majority of the game, allowing him to potentially record the 300+ passing yard bonus on DraftKings along with multiple touchdowns.

There are four other quarterbacks playing in two games that I believe possess shootout potential with the majority of the production coming on the backs of the quarterbacks. The Tampa Bay Bucs and Los Angeles Rams will face off in a battle between two of the best teams in the NFC. The Bucs offense fully runs through Tom Brady, who continues to have his number called in the red zone. Although the Rams don’t solely focus on their passing attack on a weekly basis, Tampa Bay features the best run defense in the NFL, suggesting Matthew Stafford could be the focal point of the offense this week. Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan are two cheap options in a game that features sneaky shootout potential. I prefer Jones, who comes with tremendous rushing upside for his price tag, although I believe either can be used in this contest. Other options I’d consider in GPPs include Josh Allen, Justin Fields, and Ryan Tannehill. 

Update

Quarterback’s interesting in cash games at this point in the week. The Baltimore Ravens will be without several players in this game, meaning Lamar Jackson likely takes over as the top high-priced option, as this game could stay closer than people initially projected. If you can’t get to the top of this position, Justin Fields is the play. He has a reasonable floor because of his rushing potential. He’s also too cheap, and it’s easy to make an elite lineup with him at quarterback. For what it’s worth, I still feel Kyler Murray is a fine cash option if you don’t feel comfortable with Jackson.

There hasn’t been much of a change in terms of tournament options from my initial analysis. Patrick Mahomes moves here from a cash option with Tom Brady and Daniel Jones moving up my list slightly later in the week. I also believe you can add Jared Goff to your player pool with Baltimore being without several defenders in this game.

Running Backs

Cash

Cash games feel relatively obvious at this point in the week. Dalvin Cook is coming off of a big game for the Minnesota Vikings, although he was injured. He’s still dealing with that injury at the moment, but he’s expected to play. If he does, he’s an elite option against the Seattle Seahawks struggling run defense. Derrick Henry is coming off of a massive game in his own right against that Seattle defense. He gets a solid matchup against the Indianapolis Colts this week, and people are beginning to catch on that Henry is now involved in the Tennessee passing attack. He’s seen 10 targets through 2 games, raising his floor and making Henry one of the top options on any given slate. He’ll be the clear-cut RB1 if Cook sits out this week [although Alexander Mattison would become chalk].

You’re spending down at your RB2 slot this week. Cylde Edwards-Helaire’s struggled early in his career, but he’s still played 69% of the Kansas City Chiefs offensive snaps this season. CEH’s seen 30 touches through 2 games, including 3 receptions. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, who’ve struggled to stop the run early this season. CEH is the clear RB1 in a team with the highest implied team total on the slate. He’s cheap enough that he doesn’t need a ton of fantasy points to hit value, and he boasts slate-breaking upside in this matchup at his price.

GPP

This is an odd slate where I don’t necessarily love many running backs at this point. Javonte Williams’ been one of the most elusive running backs in the NFL this season. He gets a great matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Denver Broncos are sizeable favorites in this game. If they get out to an early lead, they could lean on Williams more than Melvin Gordon, who’s dealt with plenty of leg injuries throughout his career. Williams is an outstanding pivot off of CEH on this slate. Ty’Son Williams is also a boom or bust option. The Baltimore Ravens stated they’re going to “ride the hot hand” at running back, keeping Williams’ ownership low. He’s clearly the most talented option, though, and Baltimore is a massive favorite in this game. If they’re able to get out to an early lead, the Ravens could rely heavier on Williams rather than Lamar Jackson’s legs, giving him plenty of upside in a great matchup against the Detroit Lions.

Chris Carson and Najee Harris are two workhorse running backs, who are projecting for some ownership but are still low enough to be used in GPPs. I believe either come with upside in their matchups, as they will play the majority of the snaps for their respective teams. If they project for more ownership closer to Sunday, I’ll avoid them, as I don’t want to play either in GPPs if they’re chalky. If it lowers, I may bump them up my rankings a bit. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line, but he has yet to score in that situation. It’s only a matter of time before he flashes elite upside, and he gets a good matchup against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. Mike Davis is another solid option, although I’m concerned with the role of Cordarralle Patterson. With that being said, Davis is playing nearly 70% of the snaps this week, and he’s heavily involved in the passing game. He’s a player who sticks out in a sneaky game this weekend.

Update

Dalvin Cook’s separated himself from Derrick Henry [as expected]. He’s the top high-priced option in cash, although I believe it’s reasonable to pair those two together if you can get to their prices. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the other option in cash games. He’s entirely too cheap for this matchup, and he should be one of the higher owned players on this slate. With Cook/CEH being the clear running back options this weekend, there are a few others, including Henry, that can be considered as a flex option in cash. That list includes Chris Carson, Najee Harris, and Austin Ekeler, although I prefer each of those three in tournaments, and they should specifically be used as the RB3 [or flex] in cash games.

I feel comfortable with my GPP analysis, especially since I believe any of the “cash options” are also viable in GPPs. The only addition I want to make to my tournament player pool is D’Andre Swift.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Cash at wide receiver is relatively easy this week because there are a few grossly mispriced options, specifically in arguably the best game of the week. Cooper Kupp was chalk last week and absolutely smashed. He could be the highest-owned player once again this week, as he’s Stafford’s clear top option in Los Angeles. Although not necessarily my favorite option, Robert Woods is also far too cheap for his talent, especially in this game environment. On the other side, Antonio Brown’sbeen ruled out after testing positive for Covid, leaving Chris Godwin as a terrible misprice. He’s the other elite option in this game that can be used in cash.

Keenan Allen gets a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs this week, and he’s another guy that DraftKings opted not to price appropriately. Mike Williams’ seen a significantly larger role this season, but Allen is still an elite option as a top target for Herbert. On the other side of this game, I also feel comfortable using Tyreek Hill. This game should feature plenty of scoring, and using two of the best wide receivers in the NFL in it is never a bad idea.

GPP

With the ownership projecting to be relatively condensed at such a wide-open position, it opens the door for several other great GPP options. AJ Brown’s struggled early this season, but I’m going back to the well this week. He gets a great matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who don’t feature a defense I’m concerned with. Julio Jones got going last week, and I’m expecting Brown to be featured more in this type of matchup. Tyler Lockett’s been playing at an elite level with one of the highest aDOTs in the NFL this season. He’s benefitting greatly from the added play action to Seattle’s offense, and he’s a great tournament option. With that being said, I’m banking on DK Metcalf this weekend. He was inefficient with 11 targets last week, but the volume is there. He’s a great option against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend.

We have some interesting spots where you can move off of the chalk this week. Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, and Mike Evans are all high-upside options, who will go a bit overlooked because their teammates are “better options.” It’s simply a way to get a piece of a great game with significantly less ownership. Calvin Ridley remains one of the best receivers in the NFL, and I’m expecting the Atlanta Falcons to figure their offense out in this game. Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney could benefit from Justin Fields’ arm talent. Mooney specifically sticks out as a high upside deep threat, who comes with a low price tag. Sterling Shepard’s role has increased this season, and he’s looked like a new player. He’s in a great spot against Atlanta, and he can be used in GPPs on this slate.

Update

There isn’t much of a change at receiver in cash games. Cooper Kupp should be the highest owned player and for good reason. The five listed above are the pool you should try to be choosing from. If you absolutely need salary at this position, KJ Osborn continues to be too cheap, and he’s in a plus matchup. The main concern with him is that his role and efficiency likely aren’t sustainable throughout the season. Marvin Jones is another player who is a bit too cheap on this slate, and he can be considered in cash games, as well.

Once again, there aren’t any guys in the GPP player pool listed above that I’d remove. With Tee Higgins doubtful and Diontae Johnson out, I think the out four WRs in that game – Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster – can all be considered. Rondale Moore is another interesting option, although I’m concerned about his lack of a major role in the offense. Furthermore, with Osborn potentially getting some cheap ownership, Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are both interesting options in that game.