Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 18)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

This is an extremely weird slate because of all of the “issues” we have to deal with. Along with Covid concerns, we have teams that don’t need to play this weekend based on either having their spot locked up or not being eligible for the playoffs anymore. Josh Allen and Kyler Murray are two of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and they’ll both be playing to win this weekend. Allen gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, and he’s flashed ridiculous potential throughout the season. He scored 23.9 DK points while throwing for 120 yards without any touchdowns and three interceptions last week. Murray won’t come cheap, but he’s scored 22+ DK points in four of his last five games. He boasts tremendous upside as well. If you want to go cheaper at quarterback, Trey Lance is a great option again. I have him listed as a “Safe GPP” play, but he’s viable for cash games if you’re looking to save at quarterback. This also assumes he’s starting this week. Lance gets a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, but he comes with plenty of rushing potential and a high-upside arm.

GPP

Taysom Hill’s quietly one of the better tournament options on this slate. He’s far from a great real-life quarterback, but he’s a great fantasy option. He’s scored 17+ DK points in three of his last four games, including games with 26.3 and 27.66 DK points. He gets a matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, who allowed Josh Allen to run for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Hill’s still reasonably priced, and the New Orleans Saints are in a must-win situation. Baker Mayfield’s been ruled out this week, meaning Case Keenum will draw the start. Although I don’t love him, this is an interesting spot. He gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who will be benching several starters this week. Keenum’s flashed upside in the past, and although this isn’t the best offense for quarterbacks, he’s absurdly cheap on this slate. He’ll allow you to spend up on the rest of your roster. Ryan Tannehill, Carson Wentz, and Matthew Stafford are all interesting options as well.

Running Backs

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Running back starts with Jonathan Taylor this weekend. He’s the best fantasy running back on this slate, as he’s consistently getting 20+ touches a week. He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who he recently posted nearly 30 DK points against. The Indianapolis Colts are in a must-win situation, and I’d anticipate they ride their star running back like they should have last week. David Montgomery’s a workhorse back for the Chicago Bulls, who is too cheap for his role. He’s averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry the last two weeks, yet he’s scored 21.1 and 23.6 DK points in those games. Montgomery’s an extremely safe option because he has the ability to contribute in any game script. I have D’Onte Foreman listed as a “Safe GPP” option, but he can also be used in cash games. Derrick Henry is expected to return soon, but Foreman should continue to see a big role until then. He posted 132 yards and 1 touchdown on 26 carries last week, and Foreman gets a great matchup against the Houston Texans this week. Antonio Gibson, Dalvin Cook, and Rashaad Penny are all solid options here this week.

GPP

Devin Singletary is one of the top options in tournaments on this slate. He may garner some ownership, but there are plenty of other options that will likely be used over him in cash games. He’s taking on a significantly bigger role for the Buffalo Bills, and he gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets this week. The only major concern here is that Josh Allen has a massive role in the red zone. If you want to spend up here, Nick Chubb is an interesting option. It’s still slightly early in the week, so we need confirmation that he’ll play a full role this week. If he does, he’ll get a matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals backups. This is the type of game Chubb can find elite success in, but he’s likely to go overlooked because of his price tag. You can also consider Najee Harris, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, and Eli Mithcell at running back this weekend.

Wide Receivers

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Wide receiver’s extremely interesting this weekend. You can start with the Pittsburgh Steelers guys in cash games. Diontae Johnson entered the Covid protocols, leaving Chase Claypool and Ray Ray McCloud to take on bigger roles. They both get elite matchups against the Baltimore Ravens, who struggle against receivers. Of the duo, I slightly prefer McCloud, who’s under $4k and has seen 18 targets over his last two games. It’s important to note that Claypool comes with significantly more upside, though. Brandin Cooks is another great option here. He gets a good matchup against the Tennessee Titans, and he’s seen 10+ targets in each of his last three games. Over that span, Cooks is averaging 24.3 DK points per game. Davis Mills is playing for his future, and Houstons star receiver is surprisingly cheap on this slate. There are several other options you can consider here, including AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, Christian Kirk, Jaylen Waddle, and DJ Moore.

GPP

I listed Cooper Kupp as a “Safe GPP” option this week. He can be considered in cash games, but I’m not expecting you to be able to get there this weekend. He’s the best receiver in the NFL this season, though, and he gets a solid matchup against the San Francisco 49ers. If you can fit him, he’s a great play. I considered Carson Wentz in the chart at the top because the matchup is so good. That’s also true for Michael Pittman Jr., who should have no problems against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. He’s been playing a massive role in the offense, and he owns plenty of upside for a surprisingly low price tag. Stefon Diggs is another elite high-priced option. He’ll go overlooked because of his price tag, but he gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets. Any time you can get someone as talented as Diggs with low ownership, you can take a shot on him. Marquise Brown, Darnell Mooney, Mike Evans, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all interesting plays at receiver this weekend.