Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 17)

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Quarterbacks

Cash

At the moment, there are only two quarterbacks I’m truly considering in cash games. Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand. It was initially suggested that he didn’t have a chance to play this week, although Kyle Shanahan claims they’ll see where he’s at throughout the week. If Garoppolo is out, Trey Lance will draw the start. He’s played ~50% of the offensive snaps or more in two contests this season. Lance posted 15.58 and 20.38 DK points in those games. He’s barely played since Week 5, and we can expect that Lance has taken steps forward since then. He’s a dual-threat quarterback with elite rushing potential. Lance also gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend. If he’s starting, he’s the best cash game option as there are plenty of elite spend-ups at other positions.

If Lance doesn’t start, you can spend up at quarterback on Josh Allen. Although he’s been inconsistent at times this season, he’s arguably the best fantasy quarterback in the NFL. Allen’s scored 22+ DK points in four of his last five games, flashing 40+ DK point upside over that span. He gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and Allen owns an elite combination of rushing and passing potential. He’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate, and Allen is a player that can be considered in all leagues this weekend.

GPP

With so much concentration on only two quarterbacks in cash, there are several elite tournament options. Patrick Mahomes is heating up, ad he comes with tremendous upside. He gets an interesting matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have struggled with airYAC throughout the season. Mahomes should get Travis Kelce back this week, and he’s an elite option on this slate. Jalen Hurts has found tremendous success throughout the season. He’s far too cheap for his fantasy production, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury, which is why he’s listed as a GPP play. Hurts recorded only 2 carries for 7 yards last week, and his rushing floor is one of his most appealing traits. I expect more rushing potential than that as Hurts has another week to get healthy, but there is plenty of risk with any dual-threat quarterback that is dealing with an ankle injury.

Matthew Stafford is one of my favorite quarterbacks on this slate. The Los Angeles Rams love throwing the ball, and Stafford has an elite receiving group. He gets an elite matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who Joe Burrow torched last week. Although the Ravens are getting healthier, there’s no reason to believe Stafford and company won’t find success this weekend. He flopped in a great matchup last week, which could cause him to go a bit overlooked as well. Dak Prescott finally returned to form last week, throwing for 330 yards and 4 touchdowns in less than a full game against the Washington Football Team last week. He gets an important matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend, and the Dallas Cowboys could give Prescott extra opportunities to continue this success as the playoffs are coming up. Mac Jones, Taysom Hill, Ryan Tannehill, and Justin Herbert are all interesting options on this slate as well.

Running Backs

Cash

As mentioned above, you’re going to need salary to spend up on other positions. That starts at running back with Jonathan Taylor. He’s recorded 27+ touches in four of his last five games, and he recently flashed 55+ DK point upside. Carson Wentz was placed on the Covid list, meaning Taylor will be locked into a massive role for the Indianapolis Colts once again. He could be used as a check-down option more this week with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. Taylor also gets a great matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, and he’s an elite option in all leagues on this slate.

David Montgomery’s consistently seen a workhorse role for the Chicago Bears, but he isn’t priced like it. He has a massive role in the passing game, seeing 6+ targets in each of his last four games. He gets a plus matchup against the New York Giants, and Montgomery’s been a safe option in recent weeks. He’s a player that will likely garner plenty of ownership, and he’s a great option to pair with Taylor. Sony Michel isn’t cheap at this point, but he’s going to play a massive role with Darrell Henderson on IR. Michel’s posted 23+ DK points in two of his last four games, and he’s seen 18+ carries in each of those games. He’s still a bit too cheap, and he makes a great option in all leagues this weekend. Antonio Gibson, Michael Carter, and Josh Jacobs can all be considered here as well.

GPP

Damien Harris is one of the more interesting options at running back this slate. He’ll continue to go completely overlooked because he doesn’t contribute in the passing game for the New England Patriots. With that being said, Harris’ scored 51.4 DK points over his last two games. He’s been playing a solid role in the New England offense, and he’s the red zone option for the Patriots. Harris is slightly more expensive than David Montgomery, which will be his ownership extremely low, as very few will pivot to him, even in GPPs. He comes with plenty of upside, especially in an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Devin Singletary has finally been given the main role for the Buffalo Bills, as he’s locked into massive snaps for one of the best offenses in the NFL. That role started three weeks ago, and Singletary’s scored 15+ DK points in each of his last three games. He’s a versatile running back that can contribute regardless of the score. Singletary gets a plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and he’s a solid option off of the Josh Allen chalk at quarterback. Rashaad Penny’s another solid play here. He’s been given a massive role in the Seattle Seahawks offense, scoring 22.5 and 29.8 DK points in two of his last three games. Penny gets a plus matchup against the Detroit Lions this weekend, and he boasts tremendous upside for a reasonable price tag. Alvin Kamara, Boston Scott, D’Andre Swift, Ronald Jones, and Elijah Mitchell are all great options on this larger slate.

Wide Receivers

Cash

You’re starting cash games at the top of receiver once again. Cooper Kupp is arguably my favorite play on the entire slate. He’s the safest receiver with the most upside in the NFL. Kupp’s averaging 31.6 DK points per game over his last four games. He gets an elite matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve struggled with airYAC throughout the season. Kupp will continue to see elite volume, and he’s the top spend-up on this slate. Antonio Brown is too cheap once again. He “quietly” posted 10 receptions for 101 yards on 15 targets last week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans again this week, leaving Brown as their focal point. He’s priced up significantly from last week, but he’s still entirely too cheap at this point.

I listed AJ Brown as a “Safe GPP” play, but I believe he can be used in cash games as well. He returned last week, posting 11 receptions for 145 yards and 1 touchdown on 16 targets. The Tennesee Titans will be without Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, leaving Brown as their clear focal point once again. He should be peppered with targets, and Brown’s an elite option in all leagues. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs can both be considered if you can spend up on multiple receivers this week. They would each make solid stacking options depending on who you are using at quarterback.

GPP

I currently have Christian Kirk listed as a GPP option, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he garners steam throughout the week. He’s playing a bigger role in the Arizona Cardinals’ offense with DeAndre Hopkins out, and that will continue this week. He gets a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, and Kirk has been playing well. I think he’s a fine option in cash games, but he isn’t projecting for much ownership at the moment. Jaylen Waddle is another outstanding option here. He returned last week, posting 10 receptions for 92 yards and 1 touchdown on 12 targets. He’s seeing an elite amount of targets, and that will continue to be the case throughout the remainder of the season. Waddle gets a plus matchup against the Tennessee Titans, and he’s an elite option.

In terms of game theory, Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson are elite options on this slate. Cooper Kupp is projecting for all of the ownership, but the second and third options in the passing game can be considered as well. As I mentioned above, the Baltimore Ravens have struggled with airYAC throughout the season, and Beckham and Jefferson are two high-upside options that will go overlooked because of Kupp. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s found tremendous success without D’Andre Swift in the lineup. Swift’s expected to return this week, which could hurt St. Brown’s value. Still, he’s looked outstanding when given the opportunity, and I expect Detroit to continue to give him opportunities as the season winds down. Jakobi Meyers, Zay Jones, Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, and Marquise Brown are all interesting options at a loaded position as well.