Welcome to Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 16)! In this article, I’ll outline my favorite cash game and GPP options at each of the positions. I’ll utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of my Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NFL Package.
| QBs: | RBs | WRs | Game Stacks |
| J. Hurts | J. Jackson | C. Kupp | LA/MIN |
| J. Herbert | A. Mattison | A. Brown | BAL/CIN |
| M. Stafford | D. Montgomery | D. Moore | LAC/HOU |
| J. Burrow | D. Singletary | A. St. Brown | PIT/KC |
| T. Brady | C. Patterson | M. Brown | TB/CAR |
| J. Allen | C. Hubbard | J. Jeudy | DEN/LV |
| CASH | SAFE GPP | LOW OWNED GPP | FADE |
*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.
Quarterbacks
Cash
There are several elite options at quarterback in cash games this weekend. Jalen Hurts is arguably the most mispriced, as he’s been one of the more consistent fantasy options in the NFL this season. He has struggled a bit in recent games, but he’s posted 29.64 and 30.78 DK points in two of his last three games. Hurts gets a solid matchup against the New York Giants, who he just struggled against, and I’m expecting a bounce-back game this week. Justin Herbert is another elite option. He’s posted 24+ DK points in each of his last five games, including a 38 DK point performance. Herbert gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans, although I slightly worry about a blowout here. Still, the Los Angeles Chargers focus on their passing game much more than their rushing attack. He’s an elite option for a high price tag.
I listed Matthew Stafford as a “Safe GPP” play, as I prefer Herbert or Hurts above him. With that being said, I think you can consider him in cash games this weekend. He’s been enjoying an outstanding season for the Los Angeles Rams, and Stafford gets an elite matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend. The Rams should find plenty of success, and the majority of that should come through the air. Patrick Mahomes is the final cash game option to consider here. He’s the most expensive quarterback on the slate, but he gets a solid home matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Mahomes comes with as much upside as anyone on this slate, and he’s my least favorite of the four listed above.
GPP
Joe Burrow is likely the most overlooked quarterback on this slate. He hasn’t been overly consistent in recent games, but he boasts elite upside. Burrow gets a matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who feature one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. He scored slightly over 30 DK points in their only matchup this season, and the Ravens are dealing with several injuries throughout their secondary. Burrow’s inconsistencies have kept his price tag relatively low, and he’s an elite tournament option on this slate.
Tom Brady is another interesting option. He’s “struggled” on the road, averaging 21.8 DK points per game outside of Tampa Bay. He’s also coming off of a 6.76 DK point performance against the New Orleans Saints. Brady always boasts elite upside, though, and he gets a matchup against the Carolina Panthers. Matt Ryan is another veteran that can be considered on this slate. He’s absurdly cheap because he hasn’t flashed upside since Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints. Ryan gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, though, and he can be used in GPPs. Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, and Russell Wilson can all be considered in GPPs tonight.
Running Backs
Cash
We have multiple elite running back options because of Covid and injuries. Dalvin Cook recently tested positive, meaning Alexander Mattison will take over as the workhorse back in Minnesota. He gets a tougher matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, but this is a volume/talent play. Mattison isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s averaging 25.9 DK points per game as the workhorse. Justin Jackson should take over for Austin Ekeler, who recently tested positive for Covid. He’s seen 22 carries over his last two games, and Jackson should see plenty of carries in this game. He gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans, who feature one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Oddly enough, Ekeler suggested to Dawson Knox that he pick up Jackson as a filler for him on Knox’s fantasy team. That counts for something, right?
Leonard Fournette was placed on IR, leaving Ronald Jones as the lead back for the Tampa Bay Bucs. He’s performed well in his opportunities this season, and Jones could have a major red zone role with one of the best offenses in the NFL. He’s only $5.1k on this slate, and he’s a solid salary relief option at this position. James Robinson is the final option I’m considering in cash this weekend. He scored 17.8 DK points on 21 touches in his first game without Urban Meyer. I’d expect a similar role this weekend, and he gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets tonight. These four are currently the top running back options to consider in cash games, and it makes sense to use three of them this week.
GPP
Cordarrelle Patterson going overlooked this weekend is a bit surprising. He’s been a fantasy star throughout the season, as he’s one of the biggest surprises. Patterson’s also taken on a slightly larger rushing role in recent games, posting double-digit rush attempts in each of his last four games. He’s still involved in the passing attack, and Patterson gets a great matchup against the Detroit Lions this weekend. He’s a direct pivot off of Mattison, who should garner significantly more ownership on this slate.
David Montgomery is listed as a “Safe GPP” option, and I’d consider him in cash games on most other slates. He’s still far too cheap for his workhorse role in the Chicago Bears offense, as he’s posted 16+ touches in each of his last four games. He’s posted double-digit fantasy points in each of those games, scoring as many as 28.1 DK points over that span. Devin Singletary is a bit riskier, but he does come with plenty of upside. The Buffalo Bills recently threw support behind him, and he saw 22 carries last week. He gets an interesting matchup against the New England Patriots, and Singletary can contribute in several ways. As long as he continues to see the snaps, he’ll make a strong GPP option. You can also consider Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Saquon Barkley, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire at this position.
Wide Receivers
Cash
As is the case most weeks, you’re starting wide receiver with Cooper Kupp. He’s been arguably the best fantasy option in the NFL this season, and he isn’t quite priced like it. He’s similar to Christian McCaffrey last season where you plug and play him, but Kupp’s well under $10k at this point. The cherry on top is that he gets an elite matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. Tyreek Hill is another solid high-priced option, but he has to clear Covid protocols to play. If he doesn’t, Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle will shift into the cash game conversation. It may be difficult to get Kupp and Hill, and Kupp is the clear priority, though. With that being said, this is a viable way to construct your cash game lineups if you choose.
With Chris Godwin injured, Antonio Brown will be in an elite spot this week. He was playing at a high level prior to missing a few games, and head coach Bruce Arians said he’s looked outstanding in practice. Brown is entirely too cheap for what his role should be in the Tampa Bay offense, and he’s an elite option on this slate. On the opposite side of Kupp, Justin Jefferson can be considered. He gets an elite matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. Jefferson boasts an elite role in the Minnesota offense, and he’s a slightly riskier option with tremendous upside. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can be considered here as well, especially if you’re using Justin Herbert at quarterback.
GPP
Marquise Brown is quietly one of the best GPP options at receiver, specifically if Lamar Jackson returns. He was seeing elite volume with Jackson, and he should return to that. Brown gets a great matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, who’ve struggled with air yards, and he leads Baltimore in air yards this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is heating up, scoring 23.5, 15.3, and 24.8 DK points in his last three games. He’ll continue to see plenty of opportunities as Detroit tries to get their rookie more experience. With that being said, he’ll be without Jared Goff, and Tim Boyle is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. This should help keep his ownership lower, though.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are great options, as they both boast elite upside. Either can be paired with Burrow, and they each offer something different in terms of skillset. DJ Moore is another great option here, as he’s performed well with Cam Newton under center. He’s dealing with an injury, though, and those concerns could move ownership off of him. His hamstring injury is one of the key reasons I prefer him in GPPs rather than cash games this week. I’m still making my decision on Nico Collins with Brandin Cooks on the Covid list. He should see plenty of volume and he’s cheap, but this is a tough situation for the rookie. Russell Gage, Laquon Treadwell, and Diontae Johnson can all be considered at receiver this weekend.
Tight Ends
Cash
We’re waiting on Covid news at this position. If Travis Kelce is able to play, he’ll make an elite option. If he’s out, Noah Gray will likely draw the start and become a chalky salary relief play. Dallas Goedert has taken the next step forward in his last two games, scoring 23.5 and 31.5 DK points. He’s still cheap enough to be considered in all leagues. Rob Gronkowski is another option at tight end. He’s seeing an elite number of targets on a weekly basis, and he’s a major touchdown threat for Tampa Bay. Cole Kmet is another option that can be considered here if Kelce is active and you need to save a bit of salary.
GPP
Mark Andrews is a player that immediately sticks out, as he isn’t projecting for as much ownership as some of the other high-priced options. He’s seen 8+ targets in seven consecutive games, scoring 30+ DK points in each of his last two games. He may be even better if Lamar Jackson is ruled out. Jared Cook’s consistently disappointed, but he could see a larger role with Austin Ekeler ruled out. He saw 7 targets in his last game, and Cook could see a slightly larger red zone role on this slate. C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, and Kyle Pitts are all solid GPP options at tight end this weekend.
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