Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 15)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

There are a few great options in cash games at quarterback this weekend. Josh Allen is the most expensive option on the slate and for good reason. He’s enjoying an elite season. He gets a tough matchup against the Carolina Panthers, who’ve performed well against quarterbacks this season. Allen’s also dealing with an injury, so we’ll have to monitor that throughout the week. With that being said, he’ll be fully healthy if he suits up for this game, and he’s a quarterback with a solid floor against any defense in the NFL. Allen boasts tremendous rushing potential, and he’s an elite option if he’s announced as healthy.

If you want to spend up on a quarterback that isn’t Allen, Kyler Murray’s an elite option. Since returning from injury, Murray’s scored 22.42 and 30.82 DK points. He also didn’t record a touchdown last week. Similar to Allen, Murray boasts elite rushing potential, and he gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions. If you need to save some salary here, Jalen Hurts is an interesting option. He’s dealing with a high ankle sprain, but the Philadelphia Eagles have suggested he’ll play this weekend. If he does, he gets an elite matchup against the Washington Football Team. Hurts’ been an elite fantasy option this season, and he’s way underpriced because of his recent injury. Assuming he’s healthy, Hurts can be used in all leagues.

GPP

Tua Tagovailoa could garner some ownership this week, but he’s an outstanding cheaper option. He’s struggled a bit in recent games, although he’s flashed 25+ DK point upside this season. Tagovailoa’s also seeing plenty of volume, throwing 30+ pass attempts in each of his last 6 healthy games. In those games, he’s averaging 38.5 pass attempts per game. Tagovailoa gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins should have no issues scoring in this game, and Tagovailoa should find success this weekend.

Aaron Rodgers has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in recent games. He’s averaging 32.8 DK points per game over his last 3 games, scoring 29+ DK points in each of those games. He gets an elite matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve struggled with yards after the catch, and Rodgers boasts elite upside this weekend. Matthew Stafford gets a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who’ve allowed a league-high 3,728 airYAC in 2021. Stafford’s enjoying a great season, and he’ll be a lower-owned option to pair with a chalky Cooper Kupp. You can also consider Dak Prescott this weekend.

Running Backs

Cash

Cash games will start with James Robinson at running back this weekend. He’s seen only 15 touches over his last 2 games, but that’s dropped his price tag significantly. He gets an elite matchup against the Houston Texans this weekend, and Robinson could return to full touches this week. Antonio Gibson is in a similar situation, as he’s coming off of a terrible game as chalk last season. J.D. McKissic still isn’t practicing, though, and Gibson could return to 20+ touches again this week. He also gets a solid matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, and he’ll return to a volume play if McKissic is ruled out.

Eli Mitchell didn’t play last week, but he’s seen 25+ touches in each of his last 3 healthy games. If he’s starting, he should return to his full role. Mitchell gets a plus matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and he’s an elite option for too cheap of a price tag. Myles Gaskin is an interesting option if he returns from the Covid list. He’s seen 15+ touches in 7 consecutive games, including an 18.6 DK point performance against the New York Jets. He gets a matchup against them again this week, and Gaskin will continue to see a big role in the Miami Dolphins offense regardless of the score. Saquon Barkley, Darrell Henderson (if he plays), and Najee Harris can all be considered here as well.

GPP

James Conner isn’t practicing at this point in the week, but he’ll be an interesting option on this slate if he’s able to suit up. He could lose some ownership if Chase Edmonds returns to the team, but this game still plays into Conner’s strengths. He boasts elite touchdown potential, scoring 33.5 and 40.3 DK points in 2 of his 13 games this season. Conner gets a matchup against the Detroit Lions in an elite, and he could see another massive workload this weekend.

Javonte Williams and D’Onta Foreman are in similar situations this week. They’re arguably the most talented running backs on their respective teams, yet they split carries with other players. Williams continues to produce in somewhat of limited touches, and it looks like that could be the case again with Melvin Gordon practicing. He’ll continue to make a great option, as he’ll go under-owned as long as Gordon is in the picture. Foreman’s the lead back for the Tennessee Titans, but Dontrell Hillard and Jeremy McNichols are finding touches as well. Still, this is a plus matchup, and Foreman’s still a bit too cheap. Other running backs to consider this week include Miles Sanders, Joe Mixon, and Ezekiel Elliott.

Wide Receivers

Cash

I’m starting my cash games with Cooper Kupp, who is likely my favorite overall play on this slate. He’s been the best WR in the NFL, and he’s playing for a record at this point. Kupp also gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who’ve allowed the most YAC in the NFL this season. Devante Parker’s price tag will make Kupp’s a bit more manageable. The Miami Dolphins receiver posted double-digit fantasy points in 3 consecutive games, including 11.2 DK points in his first game back from injury. Parker gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, who feature one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL.

Although the matchup is less than ideal, Stefon Diggs is a solid option if you’re using Josh Allen in cash games. He’s an extremely consistent option, and he’s one of few players in the NFL that is essentially matchup proof. Davante Adams is another high-priced option that gets a plus matchup (Baltimore Ravens) and can be used in all leagues on this slate. I have Laquon Treadwell listed as a “Safe GPP” option, but he can be considered in cash games if you need the salary relief. He’s seen 5+ targets in each of his last 3 games, scoring 9+ DK points in each of those games. He’ll allow you to fit in some of the studs in cash games. Jaylen Waddle and Christian Kirk are the only other options I’m considering here at the moment, although I’m not likely to use Waddle and Parker together.

GPP

DeVonta Smith caught fire over a few games before tailing off recently. He posted 20+ DK points in consecutive games before scoring 10.1, 4.2, and 3.5 DK points in his last 3. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Football Team this weekend, though, and Jalen Hurts is expected to return. Smith should benefit from Hurts on the field, and he’ll go overlooked because of his recent struggles. Diontae Johnson is currently going overlooked with some other great options around his price tag. He’s seeing an elite number of targets, and he’s a player that boasts elite potential with the ball in his hands. Johnson gets a solid matchup against the Tennessee Titans. If he starts to gain steam throughout the week, he can be added to the cash game pool. For now, he’s better suited in GPPs.

Gabriel Davis is quietly playing a solid role in the Buffalo Bills offense, and he’s scored a touchdown in each of his last 2 games. He does come with more upside than being touchdown-dependent, although he generally needs one to hit double-digit DK points. Braxton Berrios is an interesting option after seeing 10 targets last week. He’s a solid salary relief option in PPR leagues, but his lack of big-play potential hurts his overall value. Brandin Cooks, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase, and A.J. Green are interesting options on this slate.