Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 13)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

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There aren’t many options I’m truly considering at quarterback this early in the week. After struggling for a few games, Tom Brady’s price tag dipped a few hundred dollars, as he’s the fourth-most expensive option on the slate. He’s been relatively bad on the road (30.3 DK FP/G at home vs 20 on the road), but he gets an elite matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. Brady posted 30.64 DK points in a dominant game against them earlier this season, and he could use this game as a “get right” spot as the playoffs approach. Jalen Hurts is another option I’m interested in, and it looks as if he could start this weekend. He’s dealing with an ankle injury, which is concerning, although I don’t believe the Philadelphia Eagles would play him with their bye coming up if they weren’t confident in his health. Hurts gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL. My only major concern at the moment is Philadelphia utilizing several running backs instead of Hurts, which is why Brady is my favorite option this weekend.

I have Derek Carr listed as a “Safe GPP” play, but I do believe you can consider him in cash games if you need to save some salary. He struggled for a few weeks before scoring 24 DK points on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys. This week, Carr gets a great matchup against the Washington Football Team, who’ve struggled against opposing quarterbacks in 2021. He should continue airing the ball out, and Carr ranks third on the slate in Karma Value via our Projections. Justin Herbert and Matthew Stafford are two more interesting options at quarterback, although I have them in a tier below the other three at this point.

GPP

It’s an interesting route to save salary at quarterback in tournaments. Similar to quite a few quarterbacks in the NFL, Taylor Heinicke’s seen mixed results over his last few games. His price tag is low, although he comes with 25+ DK point upside. Heinicke comes with great rushing potential along with plenty of upside with his arm. Heinicke gets a plus matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders in a game that projects as one of the highest-scoring on the slate. The Washington Football Team’s offense is getting healthier, excluding J.D. McKissic, and that adds to Heinicke’s overall potential in this matchup. He doesn’t need a massive game to hit value, although he’s flashed the ability to throw for 300+ yards with multiple touchdowns or run for nearly 100 yards in a game this season.

Speaking of cheap quarterbacks with rushing upside, Justin Fields is in play if he’s starting. Prior to his injury, he posted 19.14 and 29.3 DK points in his last 2 games, seemingly turning the corner. More importantly, he comes with more upside than he’s flashed early in his career because he’s yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. Fields also comes with the ability to run for 100+ yards, and I like him in the matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. Keep in mind, he’s strictly a GPP option if he’s healthy. If he’s out, I’ll likely pass on Andy Dalton. With everyone playing Jonathan Taylor against the Houston Texans, Carson Wentz is a great GPP pivot. He needed only 20 pass attempts to score 17 DK points against them earlier this season, and he comes with plenty of upside if this game can stay somewhat close. Wentz is also a great pivot off of Carr, who’s expected to see more ownership. There are several other quarterbacks that you can take a chance on in GPPs, including Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, and Tua Tagovailoa. This isn’t a slate where I’m set on a very small pool of quarterbacks for tournaments.

Running Backs

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You’re starting your cash games with Jonathan Taylor this weekend. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s been playing at an elite level this season. He gets an elite matchup against a weak Houston Texans run defense, and Taylor posted 145 yards and 2 touchdowns on only 14 carries against them earlier this season. He’s a “fade at your own risk” candidate at this point. The other clear cash game option is Jamaal Williams, who is far too cheap on this slate. D’Andre Swift is expected to miss some time with an injury, and Williams saw 20 touches last week. He has the skill set to be a three-down running back, and the Detroit Lions seem poised to use him that way. Williams’ low price tag makes Taylor’s a bit easier to fit in, making this a clear cash game duo this weekend.

Once you’ve inserted Taylor and Williams into your lineups, there are a few more options that can be considered at the utility slot in cash games. The most obvious one is Alexander Mattison, who I have listed as a “Safe GPP” option. DraftKings did well in pricing him up at $7.6k, although he’s still viable in all leagues. Mattison will take over a workhorse role with Dalvin Cook injured. He also gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions. If you need to save a bit more salary here, David Montgomery is another running back with an oddly mispriced tag. He has a featured role with the Chicago Bears, and he gets a solid matchup against the Arizona Cardinals. Montgomery hasn’t been playing at an elite level in recent games, but he’s seeing an elite number of touches for his price tag. Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, James Conner, and Darrell Henderson are other options for varying price tags that make sense as the third running back in your lineups this weekend.

GPP

The cash game pool is massive for Week 13, and as some players gain more steam and others lose it, some will switch into the GPP conversation. Depending on ownership on Sunday, everyone listed above can at least be considered in tournaments. Eli Mitchell is another great option here. He returned last week, posting 133 yards and 1 touchdown on 27 carries. He also recorded a season-high 5 receptions for 35 yards on 6 targets. Deebo Samuel isn’t expected to play this weekend, and Mitchell could see a larger workload in the passing game. Regardless, Mitchell gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who have allowed a few big games to opposing running backs. If there weren’t so many elite options on this slate, he’d be cash viable. With that being said, I’m shifting him to GPPs for the time being, and he’s one of the top options this weekend.

J.D. McKissic is expected to miss some time for the Washington Football Team, leaving Antonio Gibson to take on a larger role. He saw 36 touches (29 carries, 7 receptions) against the Seattle Seahawks last week, and Washington could rely on Gibson in a similar way this weekend. He’s surprisingly cheap and going overlooked in one of the best games on the slate. On the other side of this game, Josh Jacobs is an interesting option. The Las Vegas Raiders claimed they wanted to get him more involved in the offense, and he saw 24 touches last game. Jacobs comes with plenty of touchdown potential, and he’s an outstanding tournament option off of the chalkier plays in Week 13. Austin Ekeler, Myles Gaskin, and whichever Philadelphia Eagles running backs are healthy can also be considered here.

Wide Receivers

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Cooper Kupp’s been the most consistent and best wide receiver option in the NFL this season. He’s consistently scored 20+ DK points, flashing 40+ DK point upside. Kupp gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the only major concern here is a blowout. Still, if the Los Angeles Rams are leading by that much, Kupp’s likely already found success. Chris Godwin’s coming off of a bad game, but he’s looked outstanding for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He gets an outstanding matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and Godwin is a great stacking option with Tom Brady. He’ll benefit from Antonio Brown missing the game this week once again.

There are several other options that can be considered in cash games at wide receiver this weekend. Keenan Allen’s locked into a massive role for the Los Angeles Chargers, as he’s taken back over as their WR1. He’s seen 10+ targets in 5 consecutive games, scoring 15+ DK points in each of those games. Allen gets a solid matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals this week, although he won’t come cheap. Diontae Johnson’s in a similar position, as he’s seen 13+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games. Johnson’s a massive part of the Pittsburgh Steelers offense, and he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. He gets a plus matchup against the Baltimore Ravens, who’ve struggled to contain receivers throughout the season. Hunter Renfrow, Jaylen Waddle, Marvin Jones, and Justin Jefferson are all options that can be considered in cash games depending on how much salary you have to spend.

GPP

Michael Pittman is one of the more interesting options on this slate. He’s currently projecting for solid ownership, although that’s unlikely come Sunday. Everyone will be using Jonathan Taylor, and there’s isn’t much reason to use both options. I prefer Pittman in GPPs because of the blowout potential, although he makes a great stacking option with Carson Wentz if you’re looking for leverage off of the Taylor chalk. Brandon Aiyuk is another interesting option here. He could garner some ownership with Deebo Samuel unlikely to play. He’s seen an increased role in recent games, scoring double-digit fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games. Aiyuk isn’t overly cheap anymore, but he’s a solid option on this slate.

Darnell Mooney has caught fire in recent games, scoring 20+ DK points in 3 consecutive games. He’s proving to be capable of being the Chicago Bears WR1, and they’re likely to treat him as such for the remainder of the season. Mooney gets a solid matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, and he’s a great stacking option with Justin Fields. Josh Reynolds saw a large role in the Detroit Lions offense last week, turning 5 targets into 3 receptions for 70 yards and 1 touchdown. He already has chemistry with Jared Goff, and Reynolds is still near the minimum price. He’s a solid option because of that low price tag. Ja’Marr Chase, D.K. Metcalf, Brandin Cooks, and Tee Higgins can all be considered here as well.