Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 12)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

There are a few solid cash game options at quarterback tonight. If you’re looking to spend up here, Tom Brady is an elite option. Although Brady and the entire Tampa Bay Buccaneers team have struggled on the road this season, he gets a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who’ve given up a league-high 26 passing touchdowns with a 6.5% passing touchdown rate. This is an elite matchup for one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert is another elite option, although he comes with a bit more risk. He’s posted 35+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 games, and Herbert gets a solid matchup against the Denver Broncos. He makes an elite option for his current price tag.

There are a pair of cheaper quarterback options that can be considered in cash games this weekend as well. Cam Newton took over the starting job last week, scoring 26.16 DK points against the Washington Football Team. This week, he gets an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins, who’ve struggled with airYAC throughout the 2021 season. Newton recorded 10 rushing attempts last weekend, and he’s always a threat to find the end zone on the ground. He’s far too cheap at this point, and he’s an elite cash game option, as he boasts the highest Karma Value in our Projections. I have Tyrod Taylor listed as a “Safe GPP” option because I prefer Newton, although Taylor can be considered in all leagues this weekend. He gets an elite matchup against a weak New York Jets defense, and he’s scored 19+ DK points in 2 of his 3 full games in 2021. The Houston Texans could focus heavily on the run this weekend, and Taylor’s coming off of a 2 touchdown performance. He’s a solid option, but I have him well below Newton in terms of cash games, even if I believe you can consider him here.

GPP

This is an interesting slate for tournaments, especially at quarterback. There aren’t as many games, but we’re still getting a few great options projecting for low ownership. Jalen Hurts is enjoying an outstanding season, specifically in terms of fantasy production. The Philadelphia Eagles have been establishing the run in recent weeks, and Hurts posted 69 yards and 3 touchdowns on 18 carries last week. He’s seen double-digit carries in 5 of his last 6 games, and I don’t expect the New York Giants defense to be able to stop him on the ground this weekend. The Vegas line is only set at 3.5 points, suggesting that we shouldn’t be overly concerned with a blowout in this game.

The other option that sticks out is Carson Wentz. He gets a great matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who will force offenses to throw the ball against them. I’m expecting them to focus on shutting down Jonathan Taylor, meaning Wentz could see his largest workload of the season. He’s surprisingly cheap for a player that could throw the ball 40+ times this weekend. This could be a great week to buy-low on Matt Ryan. He’s scored a total of 6.8 DK points over the last 2 weeks, and he’s a player that will go overlooked because of those struggles. He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, though, and Ryan will make an outstanding tournament option, specifically if Cordarrelle Patterson returns. Daniel Jones can also be considered in tournaments this weekend.

Running Backs

Cash

Cash games are starting with Christian McCaffrey this weekend. He’s still far too cheap, and he’ll make an easy plug-and-play until his price tag jumps over $10k. He’s scored 25+ DK points in each of his last 2 games. He had touchdowns stolen from him in those games, as well. Regardless of the matchup, situation, game flow, or anything, McCaffrey has the skillset to find success. He’s one of the safest fantasy options in the NFL. Miles Sanders returned last week, recording 94 yards on 16 carries. As I mentioned above, the Philadelphia Eagles have been establishing the run in recent weeks. Jordan Howard’s been ruled out, leaving Sanders to see plenty of carries once again. He’s far too cheap for his combination of role and talent in a matchup against the New York Giants.

Darrell Henderson continues to see a massive role for the Los Angeles Rams. He’s been struggling in recent weeks, although he has a role in nearly any situation. He gets a tough matchup against the Green Bay Packers, who’ve been playing extremely well this season. With that being said, Henderson’s far too cheap for a big role. Austin Ekeler and Dalvin Cook are two higher-priced options that can be considered here. They’re both coming off of big games, and they have seen workhorse roles for their respective teams. If Aaron Jones (unlikely) is ruled out this weekend, AJ Dillon will become a must-start. We need more information on Jones’ health before making a definitive choice on Dillon at this point.

GPP

James Robinson is one of the more interesting options on this slate. I listed him as a “Safe GPP” option, but he can be considered in cash games if you want. He’s been consistent, as he has a featured role regardless of the situation. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his last 7 games, including a pair of games with 25+ DK points. It isn’t often the Jacksonville Jaguars can be winning (or even stay competitive) throughout their games, although they have that opportunity this weekend. That should solidify Robinson’s role, making him a great option for a reasonable price tag.

The Houston Texans are in an odd spot with their running backs, although it seems as if Rex Burkhead is taking on a larger role in the offense. He saw 18 carries last week, failing to impress in that time. With that being said, Burkhead gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets this weekend. They feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and Burkhead is near the minimum price. If he gets around 20 touches again, he’ll make an outstanding salary relief option. Eli Mitchell is another running back in a solid spot. He saw 27 carries in his last game before missing last week with a finger injury. If he’s active, he’ll be the lead back for the San Francisco 49ers. They’re a team that wants to establish the run, and the Minnesota Vikings have struggled with their run defense. Assuming he’s healthy, Mitchell comes with elite upside. Myles Gaskin, Cordarrelle Patterson (if healthy), and Leonard Fournette can all be considered at running back this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Cash

With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts being such a great game environment, I’m looking to grab some of the receivers in this game here. Antonio Brown’s already been ruled out, leaving Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as great options. I prefer Godwin, who’s been extremely consistent this season. He also boasts tremendous upside, and I don’t expect the Indianapolis Colts defense to slow them down. On the other side, Michael Pittman continues to be a great option. He’s enjoying a breakout season, averaging 15.4 DK points per game. He’s coming off of a terrible game against a tough Buffalo Bills defense, and Pittman is a great option in all leagues this weekend.

If you can get to either of their price tags, Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp make great options, as they’re two of the most consistent players in the NFL. They’ll also be playing in a game with plenty of shootout potential. Slightly cheaper options who have found plenty of success in recent games include Keenan Allen and Deebo Samuel. I prefer Samuel, who can score fantasy points in several different ways, although both can be considered in their matchups. Diontae Johnson’s seeing plenty of targets on a weekly basis, and he still boasts tremendous fantasy upside. He’s surprisingly cheap for his target share, and Johnson can be used in all leagues. Brandin Cooks, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins are cheaper options that can fill out your cash game lineups at this position.

GPP

Cam Newton is projecting for plenty of ownership, yet DJ Moore continues to go overlooked. He performed well in his first game with Newton last week, and Moore gets an elite matchup against the Miami Dolphins again this weekend. He isn’t too pricey at the moment, and Moore is a great option on this slate. Dez Fitzpatrick is projecting for barely any ownership in our Projections at the moment. He played 64 snaps last week, posting 3 receptions for 35 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 targets. The Tennessee Titans will be without AJ Brown, Julio Jones, or Derrick Henry, leaving plenty of production open. Fitzpatrick isn’t seen as the top option in the offense, but he comes with plenty of upside for a near-minimum price tag.

There are a few solid one-offs in the New York Jets vs Houston Texans game. If Corey Davis is active, he’ll make a solid option. Nico Collins and Elijah Moore are two more solid GPP plays in this game. Moore will see a boost if Davis is out, as well. Keep in mind, these are bad offenses against bad defenses with New Yorks being much worse than Houstons. Ja’Marr Chase is a player that always seemingly goes overlooked, yet he always comes with tremendous upside. This week is no different. He’s been a consistent touchdown threat, and Chase gets a plus matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers this weekend. He isn’t cheap, but he boasts the ability to break any slate. Adam Thielen, Nelson Agholor, and Jaylen Waddle are all great options here as well.