Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 11)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

I’m starting with my cash game quarterback pool relatively large early in the week. After a few back games, Patrick Mahomes bounced back with nearly 40 DK points against the Las Vegas Raiders last week. He gets an interesting matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, and this game features the highest game total on the slate. These were two of the best-projected offenses in the NFL entering the season, and both should find success against the opposing defense. It’s a reason Dak Prescott will also start the week in my cash game pool. He’s scored 25+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, flashing plenty of upside. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has struggled throughout the season, and I expect Dallas to find plenty of success with their passing attack this weekend. Of the two quarterbacks in this game, I prefer Mahomes for only a few hundred dollars more.

Josh Allen is the most expensive quarterback on the slate and for good reason. Excluding a surprising game against the Miami Dolphins, he’s been absurdly consistent with an elite floor on a weekly basis. The Buffalo Bills love throwing the ball, and he gets a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who’ve allowed the sixth-most airYAC (2,641) in the NFL this season. Lamar Jackson is throwing the ball 40+ times per game while boasting the upside of recording 20 rush attempts. He comes with a role that no one else in the NFL possesses. His rushing floor and pure volume make him one of the safest quarterbacks on any given slate, and that isn’t going to change against the Chicago Bears this weekend. Cam Newton is far too cheap for taking over as the Carolina Panthers starting quarterback. He’s only projecting for 4.35% ownership according to our Projections, although I expect that to increase throughout the week. He’s the top option if you decide to save at this position. At the moment, I’m expecting to pay up for someone with several elite options, though.

GPP

I’m expecting some of my “cash” options to lose ownership throughout the weekend, and they’ll likely turn into elite tournament options for me, as there aren’t many other quarterbacks I love in GPPs this weekend. Tua Tagovailoa sticks out as a potentially elite volume play. Prior to his injury, he averaged 42 pass attempts per game over his last 3 games. Tagovailoa gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, who have allowed the third-most airYAC (2,692) in the NFL this season. The Miami Dolphins passing attack should continue to get better as Jaylen Waddle progresses through the season. Tagovailoa isn’t a player that will garner much ownership, but he could see 40+ pass attempts against one of the league’s worst pass defenses this weekend.

I have some interest in Justin Fields this weekend, as well. I’ve attacked the Baltimore Ravens defense quite a few weeks, as they simply aren’t as good as many pretend they are in 2021. After struggling for much of his rookie season, Fields’ turned it around the last 2 weeks, scoring 19.14 and 29.3 DK points. The Ravens have struggled with yards after the catch and missed tackles, suggesting Fields could gain easy yards through his receivers or via his legs. He’s flashed upside without throwing for multiple touchdowns this season, and Fields should be throwing throughout the majority of this game. Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Aaron Rodgers, and Derek Carr are other options that can be considered here.

Running Backs

Cash

Once again, we have several great options in cash games, although you’re likely starting at the top of the position. Christian McCaffrey continues to be too cheap. He posted 26.1 DK points last week with losing several potential touchdowns to other players. Although he gets a tough matchup against the Washington Football Team, McCaffrey will find fantasy points against anyone because of his versatility. He should be over $10k, making him a relatively easy option to insert into your cash pools. Nick Chubb is another high-priced option that can be considered here. He posted 33.3 DK points without Kareem Hunt in his last game, and he’ll be in the same situation this weekend. Chubb also gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions in a game they should be running the clock out.

You’re going to have to make a choice with a mid-price option here. James Conner was one of the highest-owned running backs last weekend, and he performed reasonably well because of his touchdown. As always, he’s a massive touchdown threat because of his red zone role. Conner gets a plus matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, and he’s an outstanding option once again. The other option is AJ Dillon, who’s only $100 more expensive than Conner. He’s coming off of a great game, scoring 26.8 DK points against Seattle. He gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who’ve featured one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Dillon will see a massive role with Aaron Jones injured, and he’s an elite option in one of the top offenses on this slate.

GPP

It looks as if Chris Carson will be out once again, making Alex Collins an interesting option this weekend. He’s getting nearly all of the carries for the Seattle Seahawks, who get an elite matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. They’ve struggled to stop the run this season, and Collins boasts 20+ DK point upside when given a full role. He comes with an extremely low price tag because of his recent performances, giving us an edge in GPPs this weekend. It’s important to keep an eye on Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins’ statuses, as Collins will be at his best if Seattle can get out to an early lead against their division rival.

Although I like Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin is a player to consider in tournaments. He’s taken on a larger role in the Miami Dolphins offense, recording 61 carries over his last 4 games. Gaskin also owns a solid role in the Miami passing offense, though, as he saw 6 targets on 2 games ago. He gets a great matchup against the New York Jets, who feature one of the worst defenses in the NFL. He already posted 30+ DK points once this season, and he’s a great salary relief option in GPPs. D’Andre Swift could garner some ownership this weekend, although I prefer him in tournaments rather than cash games. David Montgomery, Dalvin Cook, and Michael Carter are a few more options to be considered this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Cash

At the top of receiver, you’re likely choosing between Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. Adams will be a popular pick with Aaron Jones out, as he’s going to be a massive part of the Green Bay Packers offense. He’s locked into double-digit targets, and he gets a matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who don’t feature anyone that will be able to slow down one of the best receivers in the NFL. Hill’s the lead receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs in the best game environment on this slate. He’s seen 9+ targets in every game since Week 3, including an 18-target game a few weeks ago. This likely comes down to who you use at quarterback, though. If you’re using Mahomes, I’d stack Hill with him. If you’re leaving that game in cash games, Adams is my preferred option.

Michael Gallup returned last week, playing 42 offensive snaps for the Dallas Cowboys. He’s priced far too cheap, after turning 5 targets into 3 receptions for 42 yards. He’ll continue to see more and more snaps as he gets healthier, and this is a game environment he can perform well in. He’s a clear salary relief option this weekend. Tee Higgins is another player that comes with too low of a price tag, which has been the case for several weeks. He’s seeing plenty of targets for the Cincinnati Bengals, and he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 2. Higgins is performing well without scoring, and he comes with far too much upside for his price tag if he can find the end zone. Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown can also be considered if you have the salary here.

GPP

Oddly enough, it seems as if CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper could go a bit overlooked this weekend. The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled with air yards and YAC throughout the season, which plays into any of the Dallas Cowboys receivers. Either of them can be considered, although I slightly prefer Lamb, who’s flashed more YAC-ability early in his career. If one of these two starts garnering more ownership than the other, I’ll likely swap them, as both come with tremendous upside in this matchup.

Jaylen Waddle “struggled” with air yards early in his career, although that hasn’t been the case in recent weeks. He’s seeing more air yards with a higher aDOT, especially with DeVante Parker injured. Waddle gets a great matchup against the New York Jets, who’ve struggled with airYAC this season. He’s a great pair with Tagovailoa in GPPs. Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are both going to benefit from Russell Wilson returning. The quarterback struggled against the Green Bay Packers last week, and I expect him to look significantly better in a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals this weekend. DJ Moore is another high upside option that will go overlooked with Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup. Hunter Renfrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Brandin Cooks, and Deebo Samuel can all be used on this slate, as well.