Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 10 – UPDATED)

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Quarterbacks

Cash

Cash games feel relatively wide open at this point in the week at quarterback. It’s important to note that generally quarterbacks don’t become overly chalky compared to other positions in cash games. Josh Allen leads the way, though, even coming off of a terrible game against the Miami Dolphins. He gets an elite matchup against the New York Jets, and the Buffalo Bills own the third-highest implied team total on the slate. Prior to last week, he posted 29+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, flashing 40+ DK point upside. Justin Herbert is another interesting option on this slate. He’s coming off of a big game, and Herbert gets a great matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who’ve struggled against quarterbacks this season. He’s only a bit cheaper than Allen, though, and he doesn’t have the built-in rushing floor.

Tom Brady’s priced between Allen and Herbert, and he’s another option to consider in cash games this week. He gets an elite matchup against the Washington Football Team, who’ve struggled with air yards throughout the season. Brady’s thrown for 15 touchdowns over his last 4 games, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. Dak Prescott is another quarterback that makes sense in cash games, as he boasts our second-highest Karma Rating on the slate this weekend.

GPP

Matt Ryan’s quietly turned his season around as well as anyone in the NFL. He’s scored 20+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s coming off of a 31.52 DK point performance against a tough New Orleans Saints defense. Ryan gets a significantly better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys this weekend, and he should continue to flash for a relatively low price tag. He’s a quarterback that consistently goes overlooked, especially with him playing without Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Still, Ryan’s thrown for 2+ touchdowns in 7 of his last 8 games, and he’s a great option in tournaments this weekend.

Oddly enough, I’m interested in another quarterback that is seen as washed up by the public eye – Carson Wentz. He hasn’t flashed elite upside at this point, although he comes with a relatively low price tag. The major concern is a lack of pass attempts if the Indianapolis Colts blow out the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. This concern should keep his ownership low, but he comes with tremendous potential if this game stays even somewhat close. Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts, and Taylor Heinicke can all be considered here, as well.

UPDATE

I’ve essentially limited by cash game pool to Josh Allen and Dak Prescott at this point in the week. There are a few more quarterbacks I’d personally consider, although Justin Herbert is the only other one projecting for double-digit ownership. Arguably my favorite play of the weekend is Tom Brady, who is without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. He could also be without Chris Godwin this weekend. Regardless, I feel comfortable backing Brady against a terrible Washington Football Team defense. I’m also high on Matt Ryan, who’s found plenty of success in recent weeks, yet goes overlooked nearly every slate. The other players listed above, specifically Carson Wentz, are still in play, as well. I’m not currently adding any other players to my pool at this point, though.

Running Backs

Cash

There are several cash viable running backs on this slate with only one standing above the rest at the moment. Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Demetric Felton are all expected to be out, leaving D’Ernest Johnson as the clear value on this slate. He started only a few weeks ago, scoring 27.8 DK points in his only game with double-digit touches this season. He’ll be the workhorse for the Cleveland Browns, and Johnson is the clear salary relief option at this position. It’s important to note that Chubb *could* still play this weekend, although it’s unlikely.

Najee Harris isn’t a cheap option anymore, but he’s one of very few running backs with a workhorse role. He’s scored at least 1 touchdown in 5 consecutive games. He also boasts a tremendous floor because of his role in the Pittsburgh Steelers’ passing game. Austin Ekeler’s in a similar position as Harris but in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. He boasts an elite red zone role, and he’ll find touches regardless of the game script. Ezekiel Elliott’s surprisingly cheap for the second week in a row. He somewhat struggled last week in the worst game script possible, although he still scored 12.6 DK points. The Dallas Cowboys feature one of the highest implied team totals on the slate, making Elliott a fine cash game option. Jonathan Taylor and Cordarrelle Patterson can also be considered here.

GPP

With so many great cash game options, the ones that lose ownership throughout the week can be sifted to GPP options, which will likely happen in my Friday update. Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook are two elite options with tremendous upside on this slate. I slightly prefer Cook of the duo, although both make great tournament options. Another high-priced option that is seemingly going overlooked is Christian McCaffrey. He returned to a sizeable role last weekend, and he should be healthier as the weeks continue. McCaffrey was an elite play over $10k last season, and he’s priced nearly $2k cheaper this weekend. Regardless of the quarterback situation, McCaffrey is in play at that price tag.

Zack Moss is dealing with a concussion, and he has yet to practice this week. If he’s out, Devin Singletary will make an outstanding option. He’s a running back that I believe is more talented than the public, and he’ll take over a full workload if Moss can’t suit up. Singletary’s the same price as Johnson, though, which will keep his ownership down. James Conner’s scored as an RB1 throughout the season, mainly because of his ridiculous red zone role. He’ll see a full workload with Chase Edmonds injured, and Conner is coming off of a 40.3 DK point performance. We know he has the capability to find success in the passing game, and that’s the aspect that will give him added upside. Leonard Fournette, D’Andre Swift, and Michael Carter can be considered in GPPs at this position, as well.

UPDATE

The clear-cut chalk is D’Ernest Johnson, who will be locked in as the Cleveland Browns running back with Nick Chubb officially ruled out. Najee Harris is another cash game option, as he’s projecting for 20%+ this weekend. If you’re spending up on your RB1, Harris is the likely pair with Johnson. If you’re spending down on both running backs, you’re likely pairing Johnson with Mark Ingram, who will take on a bigger role with Alvin Kamara injured. For what it’s worth, I’m also willing to use Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, or Cordarrelle Patterson in cash games, although any of this trio will likely be used as your RB3.

I’m keeping the listed running backs above in my GPP pool, and I won’t be adding any more at this time. Devin Singletary is the only one we’re waiting on news, though, as he won’t be viable if Zack Moss is starting. I’m also likely to be underweight on James Conner in GPPs, as I don’t truly love his talent at the moment. I understand his role and the upside he possesses with his touchdown potential, although he’s someone I’m likely to be underweight to the field on in GPPs.

Wide Receivers

Cash

Cash games start with Davante Adams this weekend. He’s coming off of his lowest-scoring game of the season, although he saw 14 targets with Jordan Love at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers is expected to return this weekend, and Adams’ price tag has dipped $1k from the last Rodgers started. He gets an elite matchup against the Seattle Seahawks, who don’t feature anyone that will be able to slow him down defensive. Michael Pittman’s in the midst of a breakout, as he’s currently scoring as a WR1. He’s scored 17+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, and Pittman is the WR1 for the Indianapolis Colts. He gets an elite matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the only real concern is a blowout.

There are several options you can consider here, and it likely comes down to who you play at quarterback. If you’re using Tom Brady, you have your choice of Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. I slightly prefer Godwin, although the Washington Football Team’s struggled with air yards, and Evans leads the team in percentage of air yards. Stefon Diggs is the preferred pairing with Josh Allen this weekend. Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott can be paired with Keenan Allen and CeeDee Lamb, respectively.

GPP

A.J. Brown could see some ownership because of his new role in the Tennessee Titans offense. He’s seen 9+ targets in each of his last 4 games, scoring 30+ DK points twice over that span. With Derrick Henry out, Brown will continue to see plenty of targets, and he’s an elite option on a weekly basis, regardless of the opponent. Terry McLaurin’s another boom or bust option on this slate. He boasts plenty of upside as the WR1 for the Washington Football team, and the easiest way to move the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is through the air. Washington should be throwing. for the majority of the game, giving McLaurin plenty of upside in this matchup.

DK Metcalf gets a solid matchup against the Green Bay Packers in a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. With Russell Wilson likely returning to the lineup, Metcalf regains his tremendous upside in virtually any matchup. He’s quietly produced with Geno Smith under center, and he’s only that much better with Wilson. Tyler Lockett can also be considered here. DJ Moore’s in an interesting spot this weekend. He’s going a bit overlooked with PJ Walker getting the start under center. Can he truly be that much worse than Darnold’s been in recent games, though? Likely not, making Moore an interesting tournament option against the Arizona Cardinals. Amari Cooper, Jakobi Meyers, and Adam Thielen make solid GPP options on this slate, as well.

UPDATE

Davante Adams continues to make the best cash game option at WR, as he won’t be overly difficult to fit into your lineup. We have to wait on the Chris Godwin news before we can move forward with other options, though. If Godwin is in, he’s a great option. If he’s out, Mike Evans or Tyler Johnson could become locks later in the week. Michael Pittman is also an option I’m willing to take a stand on in cash games. For a surprisingly low price tag, Cole Beasley could work his way as a cash game option if you need some salary relief here. Diontae Johnson is another player that isn’t listed above that I’m willing to move into my cash game pool, although he isn’t my favorite option. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper, who I’m sliding ahead of CeeDee Lamb here, can be used in cash games, as well.

I’m shifting CeeDee Lamb to GPPs with Cooper being a cash game option this weekend. Outside of that, there aren’t any other changes I’m truly making. Terry McLaurin continues to make an elite option, as Washington should be throwing from the start to the finish of this game. I’m also willing to add Mike Williams and Justin Jefferson as two high-end WRs that haven’t been performing overly well in recent games. They’re boom or bust options this weekend.