Bales’ NFL Game Theory (Week 1 – UPDATED)

*If you don’t already play 3 max entry contests, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NFL lineups.

Quarterbacks

Cash

There are two high-end cash options on this slate. If you can get to the top of quarterback, Patrick Mahomes will make an elite option. He’s arguably the safest quarterback in the NFL, scoring 20+ DK points in 16 of his 18 games last season. He also flashed 40+ DK point upside. Although I don’t love the matchup against the Cleveland Browns, the Kansas City Chiefs boast the highest implied team total on the slate at 30.5 points. Josh Allen is the other high-priced cash option this weekend. He gets a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers, although they could be without key defensive players in this game. Similar to Mahomes, Allen is a consistent quarterback who boasts elite upside. He’s a candidate for MVP this season, and his red zone usage makes a great option on any slate.

There are two more players that I’d consider in cash games at this point. Kyler Murray is one of my favorite options on the slate. He isn’t projecting for a ton of ownership, according to our Projections Portal, but he’s a dual-threat option playing in one of the best game environments on the slate. Murray recorded 158 rushing yards over his first 2 games last season. I made the bold call that he’d post 300+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards this week on our NFL Podcast. Jalen Hurts is another dual-threat quarterback who is a bit too cheap on this slate. I like his matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, and I expect the Philadelphia Eagles to give him more designed runs this season. He boasts QB1 upside on any given week, but he isn’t priced as if that’s the case. Although both can be considered in cash, they aren’t projecting for as much ownership as Mahomes or Allen.

GPP

My favorite GPP quarterback on this slate is Ryan Tannehill. He enjoyed an elite season in 2020, consistently flashing tremendous upside in the Tennessee Titans offense. I love the game environment in the Arizona/Tennessee game. The Cardinals are struggling with their secondary, and Tannehill will enjoy the new duo of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for the first time this week. This game also has a three-point spread, suggesting the Titans could throw the entire game. Sam Darnold gets a revenge game against the New York Jets, and he’s far too cheap. I’m expecting him to take a step forward with elite skill position players surrounding him and one of the top offensive minds in the game as his coach. Jameis Winston and Carson Wentz are other high-upside tournament options that come with surprisingly low price tags. Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, and Joe Burrow are other options that can be considered in GPPs, although they sit in a tier below Tannehill and Darnold at this point.

UPDATE

There isn’t much of a change here at this point. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes continue to lead the slate in projected ownership, although there’s more buzz around Jalen Hurts. He’s likely the third cash option. I also feel comfortable with Kyler Murray in cash, although his ownership isn’t likely to end up as high as Allen or Mahomes’.

In GPPs, Ryan Tannehill continues to be the top option, along with the players listed in the above GPP section. Matt Ryan is a player moving up my rankings, though, as he’s making a strong push for one of the top GPP options on this slate. Another player I’m willing to add to my GPP list is Mac Jones, although he comes with terrible downside in this matchup. Still, he’s a cheap option that will open up other positions this weekend if you opt to use him.

Running Backs

Cash

Running back is a relatively simple position in cash games this weekend. Pricing came out a while ago, giving us plenty of salary relief options at less important positions. We can pay up for three running backs on this slate if we want. It’s the safest position at the top, meaning that’s the optimal route at the moment. Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara currently rank first, second, and third on our Projections Portal in “projected points” for this weekend. It won’t necessarily be difficult to utilize all three of them in your cash lineup. Keep in mind, if you do that, you likely won’t have the capability to use Allen or Mahomes at quarterback, as you’ll need to save a bit of money there. At the moment, McCaffrey is the cash game lock of the trio. I currently prefer Kamara slightly to Cook if you’re only looking to use two of these three. There isn’t truly a way to go wrong with any of them, though.

There’s one more player that I’d consider to pair with two of the three above if you can’t spend up on all three. Antonio Gibson. He’s still priced under $6k, although I don’t expect that to be the case for long. He’s a versatile player in the mold of McCaffrey, who has Ron Rivera as his head coach. After dealing with injuries as a rookie, Gibson should take on a larger role in the offense, and he flashed 40 DK point upside as a rookie. The ideal route in cash games at this point is to use three of these four running backs, depending on what you feel comfortable with at other positions.

GPP

With so much ownership concentrated on the above four options, the majority of other players will go under-owned on this slate. One of my favorite direct pivots on this slate is Raheem Mostert. The speedy running back posted 25.1 and 18.7 DK points in his first 2 games in 2020 before dealing with injuries the rest of the season. They drafted Trey Sermon, although I expect Mostert to see a major role early in the season with it lessening later on. He also gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Lions, and the San Francisco 49ers are massive favorites. Mike Davis is another high-upside option, who is going a bit overlooked. He ranks 10th in “ceiling projection” in our Projections Portal, although he’s only $5.4k. Davis is a versatile option, who has the potential to play a workhorse role in the Atlanta Falcons offense. He also gets a plus matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles that we aren’t worried about at this point.

Speaking of workhorse backs, Joe Mixon is an interesting option. This article will be updated on Friday, and I’ll have more information on him then. If he’s projecting for lower ownership, I’m interested in him. If he’s garnering ownership, I’ll pass. For higher-priced options, Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones boast elite upside. I don’t love either matchup, although they’re players that can dominate against any defense. Chubb’s especially interesting because he will go overlooked with the Cleveland Browns being underdogs. Regardless, I’m expecting him to be a massive part of the offense, as he’s proven he does boast pass-catching abilities. James Robinson and Chris Carson are mid-priced options on teams that are small favorites. Both can be considered, although their early-season roles are a bit unknown, adding to the uncertainty. If you’re looking for a salary relief option on this slate, Chase Edmonds is the top option. He’ll split snaps with James Conner, although I prefer Edmonds in this matchup. He’ll work more as the pass-catching option, and he could see extra red zone snaps. He’s a bit too cheap for tournaments in what should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate.

UPDATE

We’ve had pricing for this slate for quite some time, meaning there aren’t going to be a lot of updates in this article. The cash game section holds true at this point, as well. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara are my top two options in cash with Dalvin Cook coming in third. Antonio Gibson is the fourth option I’d consider, although he’s in a tier below the top three. The only new news is that Joe Mixon is gaining more traction. I’m not truly looking to play him in cash games this weekend, but his increased ownership would also move me off of him in GPPs.

My GPP pool hasn’t changed much. I believe you can consider Derrick Henry with so much ownership being concentrated with CMC, Kamara, and Cook. For what it’s worth, I have Henry in a tier below them, but I understand playing him in tournaments at extremely low ownership. Mike Davis is also starting to garner more buzz around the industry. He’s in a similar position to Mixon, where I won’t use him if he becomes chalkier by Sunday. This is a situation to monitor.

Wide Receivers

Cash

You’re going to be looking to save salary at wide receiver in cash games. As I mentioned earlier, pricing came out a while ago, leaving us elite salary relief options, specifically at this position. There are several cheap wide receivers who will be de facto WR1s on their teams to start the season. Marquez Callaway is expected to lead the New Orleans Saints receiving group with Michael Thomas injured. He’ll benefit from gunslinger Jameis Winston winning the starting job, and Callaway in the clear salary relief option. Marvin Jones will share the field with other talented wide receivers, but most reports suggest he’ll play the role as the WR1 in Jacksonville this season. The Houston Texans will struggle defensively this season, specifically in the secondary, making Jones the second outstanding receiving option under $4k on this slate. Michael Pittman’s expected to slide into the WR1 role with T.Y. Hilton out for the Indianapolis Colts. This game is sneaky good for fantasy, although it may be difficult to truly trust chalk Pittman with an unknown Carson Wentz under center.

Arguably the top cash option this week is Tee Higgins. The Cincinnati Bengals are expected to rank near the top of the NFL in pass attempts once again. Higgins is coming off of an outstanding rookie season, but he’s still priced below Tyler Boyd and Ja’Marr Chase this week. He could take on a larger role overall, especially earlier in the season as Chase gets acclimated to the NFL. Higgins is priced at least $1k too cheap on this slate. Oddly enough, if you’re looking to spend up, there are several outstanding options that can be considered in cash. Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill can all be considered here. These higher-priced options are better suited for tournaments, though, as it’s safer to spend up for your running backs in cash games.

GPP

As mentioned above, any of those high-priced options can be considered in tournaments with DeAndre Hopkins being my favorite play. Hopkins is a target hog in Arizona, and he’ll once again take on the spotlight against Tennessee this weekend. On the other side, A.J. Brown is an elite option to fill out the stack. He’s dealing with an injury, though, and if he isn’t fully healthy, Julio Jones is another option that can be considered here. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both high upside options for the Seattle Seahawks, and they’re quietly going overlooked on this slate. This is one of the better games to attack, and both receivers come with tremendous upside in this type of matchup. Another pair of wide receivers that I like is Robby Anderson and DJ Moore. Anderson rejoins his former quarterback in New York, and they’ve flashed plenty of chemistry when together. I like Anderson the most of the pair, although I believe both can find success in this game.

DraftKings priced several rookie receivers that could have roles in Week 1 at the minimum price this week. Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all $3k on this slate. That’s the order I like them in, as well, as using any of these players will open up plenty of salary on this type of a slate. Even Terrace Marshall is the minimum price and can be considered. Although I don’t fully trust any of these options, I do believe they could potentially be a key to taking down a tournament on this slate. Brandin Cooks and Corey Davis are two more WR1s who could be peppered with targets in Week 1. They both come with tremendous upside for their price tags. They also offer more safety than the rookies outlined above, as well. Ultimately, the most contrarian way to use wide receivers will likely be to pay up for them this weekend.

UPDATE

With Tre’Quan Smith out, it’s important to note that Marquez Callaway could be the highest-owned player on the slate. Tee Higgins and Marvin Jones are also projecting for plenty of ownership. With Jamison Crowder ruled out, Elijah Moore has been bumped into the cash game pool. He’s far too cheap for a major role in the New York offense. That also shifted Michael Pittman’s ownership down drastically, as his salary relief won’t be needed with so many other options. If you’re spending up, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley, and Davante Adams seem to be the trio that are garnering the most buzz in cash games at this point.

If he’s going to come in under-owned compared to those around his price tag, Tyreek Hill will make an elite tournament option tonight. Aside from singling him out, my player pool for wide receivers is more or less outlined in the same as what’s outlined above. The only player I’d add is Tyler Boyd, who Sam already offer in our NFL Podcast.