Go Long – Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans
Andrew Luck has been enjoying a dominant season, and his two best games, in terms of yardage, have come against the Houston Texans. He was able to throw for 399 and 464 yards in those games. His top two options on the season have been T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron, who combined to total 419 receiving yards in those games. This is also a plus matchup for each player, as Hilton owns the third best WR/CB matchup on the slate, while Ebron owns the third best TE matchup this weekend, according to Pro Football Focus. Overall, Hilton and Ebron combined for 36 targets in those two games, and they should see similar targets and production once again this week. DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t get as good of a matchup as Hilton or Ebron, but he’s an elite-level receiver. On the season, he’s averaging 98.3 receiving yards per game, although he totaled only 36 receiving yards in his last matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. With that being said, Hopkins totaled 169 receiving yards in his first game against Indy this season. Through two matchups this season, this trio is averaging 312.0 receiving yards per game, giving them plenty of leadway for this play.
Play $50 on DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, and Eric Ebron OVER 285.5 yards to win $100 (2x)
Rush Hour – Los Angeles Chargers/Baltimore Ravens
We’re back to attacking the Baltimore Ravens in a rushing prop. Lamar Jackson has looked outstanding since taking over the starting job, and he’s now a focal point of the rushing attack. Through seven starts, he’s averaging 79.4 rushing yards on 17.0 carries per game. He also owns over 90 rushing yards in three of those games. Gus Edwards has also taken over the starting running back job in the same time frame as Jackson. In those seven games, Edwards is averaging 93.4 rushing yards on 17.4 carries per game. He has only seen 12 and 14 carries over the last two weeks, which is a bit of a concern, but Baltimore could lean heavily on the run once again this week, and Edwards is their top option. Overall, Jackson and Edwards are combining to average 172.8 rushing yards per game since taking over the starting jobs. Melvin Gordon has only seen 32 carries over his last three games, totaling 144 rushing yards in those games. He has been dealing with an injury, though, and the Los Angeles Chargers are likely going to move him back into a workhorse role in a must win playoff situation. In his first nine games, he averaged 82.3 rushing yards on 15.9 carries per game. That total would be significantly higher excluding his 28 yard performance against the Buffalo Bills. Jackson and Edwards have been two dominant options in the run game, and a workhorse Gordon puts this play well over the top.
Play $50 on Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, and Melvin Gordon OVER 229.5 yards to win $100 (2x)
Over Under 2/2 – Seattle Seahawks/Dallas Cowboys
Amari Cooper has featured plenty of ups and downs for the Dallas Cowboys, but he’s averaging 5.9 receptions for 80.6 yards and 0.7 touchdowns on 8.4 targets per game over his last nine games. He has also been a significantly better option in Dallas, where he’s averaging 7.0 receptions for 110.2 yards and 1.2 touchdowns on 8.6 targets per game. According to Pro Football Focus, Cooper gets the best WR/CB matchup on the slate against Shaquill Griffin. He’ll also spend time against Tre Flowers, who ranks as the second worst cornerback on the slate this weekend. This receiving prop is low because of Coopers recent struggles, but he’ll be a huge part of the offense once again this weekend. Tyler Lockett has been one of the most efficient players in the NFL, posting an 81.4% catch rate through 16 games. With that being said, Lockett has seen six or fewer targets in 15 of his 16 games. Furthermore, he has seen six targets in only one of his last seven games. He’s expected to spend the majority of his time against Chidobe Awuzie, who’s allowing only a 64% catch rate on the season. Lockett could also spend some time against Jourdan Lewis, who has been an above average cornerback in his limited snaps, and Byron Jones, who has been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL this season. Lockett will need a nearly perfect game to record 5+ receptions based on his target share, and that likely won’t be the case against one of the NFL’s top pass defenses.
Play $50 on Amari Cooper OVER 67.5 receiving yards and Tyler Lockett UNDER 4.5 receptions to win $132 (2.64x)
