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Over/Under 2/2 – Detroit Lions/Arizona Cardinals
Kerryon Johnson averaged 64.1 rushing yards per game through 10 games as a rookie in 2018. He also averaged only 11.8 rush attempts per game over that span. Overall, Johnson posted an impressive 5.4 rushing yards per carry in those games. He gets an elite matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who allowed a league-high 154.9 rushing yards per game last season. They also allowed 4.9 yards per carry last season, ranking in the bottom-three of the NFL in that category. Johnson will play the role of the featured back, and he averaged 115.3 rushing yards per game in games that he saw 15+ carries last season. This feels like one of the easiest overs on the slate, as Johnson has a very real chance of recording 100+ rushing yards in this matchup. Larry Fitzgerald is an interesting player because no one truly knows what to make of Arizona’s new offense. Fitzgerald averaged 4.3 receptions on only 7.0 targets per game in 2018. With that being said, Arizona ranks second last in the NFL in plays run per game, while they want to rank near the top of the NFL in that category this season. The difference between first and 31st last season was roughly 14 plays, giving Fitzgerald plenty of opportunities for added targets. Arizona will also move to a spread offense with the intention of getting the ball out of Kyler Murray’s hands quickly. That leads to easy targets [and receptions] for Fitzgerald and company. While he doesn’t seem to be as much of a lock as Johnson, this total still seems a bit low.
Play 1 unit on Larry Fitzgerald OVER 4.5 receptions and Kerryon Johnson OVER 67.5 rushing yards to win 2.47 units (1.5x)
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