Bales’ Bananas – Monkey Knife Fight NFL Prop Picks (Divisional Round)
Go Long – Indianapolis Colts/Kansas City Chiefs
The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs are two of the NFL’s premier offenses, and this game is expected to quickly turn into a shootout. These two teams are allowing a total of 547.2 receiving yards per game, and Indianapolis’ numbers are a bit skewed by an easy schedule. Tyreek Hill is a big play threat for the Chiefs, and he’s averaging 92.4 receiving yards per game through 16 games. Hill also owns four games with 139+ receiving yards. While the matchup is far from ideal for Hill, he has proven to be a relatively matchup proof type of player throughout the season. The matchup is significantly better for Travis Kelce, as the Colts have struggled to guard the tight end this season. Kelce is averaging 83.5 receiving yards per game, and he owns 100+ receiving yards in five contests this season. Hill and Kelce are combining to average 17.9 targets per game, and they will be featured in a potential shootout this weekend. The Chiefs have featured one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, but I’m going to save my T.Y. Hilton analysis for the play below. Overall, I’m expecting this game to quickly turn into a shootout between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, which will benefit a trio of their favorite targets in 2018.
Play $50 on Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and T.Y. Hilton OVER 293.5 receiving yards to win $100 (2x)
Over/Under 2/2 – Indianapolis Colts/Kansas City Chiefs
This is essentially a one player play. Darrel Williams saw 11 carries for 31 yards in his last game against the Oakland Raiders, but that was with Damien Williams playing limited snaps and Spencer Ware injured. Prior to that game, Darrel Williams was active for five games, totaling only two carries for 13 yards. Damien Williams will be back in the lineup for the entire game this weekend, while Spencer Ware is also expected to return from injury. There simply won’t be many snaps available for Williams, specifically snaps where he carries the ball. T.Y. Hilton has enjoyed a great season, averaging 90.3 yards per game through 15 total games. In the regular season, Hilton needed only 14 games to record 27.6% of the Indianapolis Colts receiving yards. He gets an elite matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who are allowing a league-high 295.1 receiving yards per game. Hilton has certainly been a boom or bust option throughout the season, but this is an ideal matchup for him. Andrew Luck and the Colts will likely be throwing the ball early and often in this game, and Hilton’s big play ability and role in the offense should be enough to carry him to another big game in this matchup.
Play $50 on T.Y. Hilton OVER 91.5 receiving yards and Darrel Williams UNDER 12.5 rushing yards to win $111 (2.22x)
Over Under 2/2 – Dallas Cowboys/Los Angeles Rams
Ezekiel Elliott’s total is set at bit low for his talent and potential carries. On the season, he’s averaging 98.2 rushing yards on 20.6 carries per game. He was the clear focal point of the Cowboys offense in their first playoff game, recording 137 rushing yards on 26 carries against the Seattle Seahawks. The Los Angeles Rams have struggled to defend the run this season, allowing 122.3 rushing yards per game this season. They also allowed a league-high 5.1 yards per carry, but that number was masked because they forced their opponents to play from behind for the majority of the season. The Dallas Cowboys defense is simply too good to get blown out, meaning they’ll be riding Elliott throughout the entire game. Todd Gurley’s rushing total is a bit more risky, but he’s finally fully healthy. He saw 12 or fewer carries in three of his final four games of his regular season, but still averaged 89.4 rushing yards on 18.3 carries per game. Over the first eight games of the season, Gurley averaged 21.1 carries per game, but that total dropped to only 14.5 carries per game over his final six games. With so much on the line in the playoffs, Los Angeles is likely to ride a healthy Gurley. The matchup against Dallas is difficult, as they are only allowing 94.6 rushing yards per game this season, but I’m siding with the volume and talent of Gurley in this situation.
Play $50 on Ezekiel Elliott OVER 88.5 rushing yards and Todd Gurley OVER 74.5 rushing yards to win $124.50 (2.49x)
NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
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Over Under 2/2 – Phoenix Suns/Minnesota Wolves This is simply a matchup based play....