Welcome to the week 8 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Keenan Allen (LAC)
Keenan Allen officially usurped Mike Evans for the year-long leader in total air yards. After weeks at the top, Evans ultimately fell to second due to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking a week off. While Evans enjoyed a week-long rest, Allen earned 209 total air yards, catching 4-of-11 targets for 61 yards. He failed to find the end zone. Most impressively, Allen’s average depth of target (aDOT) reached 19 yards, his air yards market share hit 50%, and his weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) soared to 0.78.
On the season, Allen accumulated a total of 861 air yards, 564 receiving yards, 70 targets, and 44 receptions through 7 weeks. Despite being one of the most impressive WRs in the league with regard to fantasy football, the Los Angeles Chargers’ star has yet to reach his ceiling. His air yards market share has room to grow at 36%, as does his 25% target share. His 12.3 aDOT likely increases as a healthier Hunter Henry operates as Philip Rivers’s check down option. Even his touchdown numbers are too low. With only 3 scores on the season, his red zone production is less-than-ideal, despite repeated attempts to get him the ball inside the 20-yard line.
In Week 8, the Chargers are headed to Chicago to square off against Matt Nagy’s struggling Bears. With the way Mitchell Trubisky is handling the ball, the Chargers should see a higher time-of-possession than normal. The New Orleans Saints opened up the Bears’ stout defense, and the Chargers have the offensive weapons to do the same. Allen is a must-start in season-long football leagues for the next 10 years. In daily fantasy football leagues, pairing him with Rivers makes sense as a high-upside tournament stack.
Last Week Leader:
Keenan Allen/Robby Anderson (LAC/NYJ)
Keenan Allen led the NFL in total air yards for Week 7, but doubling down on an Allen write-up is boring. Robby Anderson finished in second last week for total air yards with 180. He caught 1-of-8 targets for 10 receiving yards. The New York Jets struggled heavily to gain any sort of momentum on Monday night against the New England Patriots, but Anderson’s advanced statistics are important moving forward. He earned 45% of the team’s total air yard market share, and Sam Darnold has shown that he loves throwing the ball in Anderson’s direction. With an aDOT over 20 yards, his upside is nearly unparalleled.
On the season, Anderson earned 555 total air yards, but gained only 266 total receiving yards. He is underperforming consistently. His air yard market share is over 40%, and his target share is 20%. With 37 targets, Anderson is a focal point of the Jets’ offense, but they have to do a better job forcing him the ball. With Darnold healthy, Anderson’s fantasy value skyrockets during the latter half of the season. He is a great buy-low target in season-long leagues.
Next week, the Jets match-up against a Jalen Ramsey-less Jacksonville Jaguars’ squad. The Jaguars are in the bottom-half of the league in receiving yards per targets, suggesting big-play potential for Anderson.
Based on his recent performances, he will be under-owned in daily fantasy leagues. Now is a great time to roster him in tournaments.
Unexpected Value:
Allen Robinson (CHI)
Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Bears are underperforming this season. Matt Nagy is finding the challenges of his sophomore season as a head coach to be too challenging, as the Bears’ offense stagnates. Allen Robinson is the one offensive weapon to show any consistency in Chicago. Last week, a few garbage-time receptions boosted his stat line, but prior to that, he had a solid fantasy performance. The New Orleans Saints are good against outside WRs, and Robinson proved he can get open on the best in the league. He earned 170 total air years in Week 7, catching 10-of-16 targets for 87 yards and 1 touchdown.
#Bears WR Allen Robinson puts #Saints Rookie S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in a blender for his 3rd TD in the past two games.
CGJ was running his mouth all drive and gets humbled at the end. pic.twitter.com/lUp4MNdAN3
— Steve Frederick (@_SteveFrederick) October 20, 2019
On the season, Robinson has 622 total air yards, 464 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. His aDOT is slightly over 10, and his air yards market share is 42%. He is second in the league in WOPR, and if Nagy ever figures out a way to get the offense operating again, Robinson has tremendous fantasy upside. In season-long leagues, consider adding him if the price is low enough. He will continue to produce, even in a malfunctioning Bears’ offense.
Next week, the Bears are home in a must-win game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers struggle against the pass, and if Trubisky is going to figure it out under the helm, this is the week. Robinson could go under-looked based on how terrible the Bears’ offense has been, making him a good tournament option on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
