Welcome to the week 7 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
No one dethroned Mike Evans this week on the year-long air yards leaderboard. It is worth noting, however, that Chris Godwin climbed into the top-10. Between the two of them, Evans and Godwin have a combined 1,466 total air yards. Despite the high-upside of Bruce Arians’s offense, Jameis Winston is being rightfully criticized for his poor performances this season. It will be interesting to see if he remains the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ starting QB for the remainder of the season.
After a rather pedestrian Week 5, Mike Evans caught 9 passes on 17 targets for 96 yards in Week 6. This resulted in 226 air yards, which landed him in second for the week behind Stefon Diggs. Evans currently has an aDOT over 15, a target share of 25%, and an air yards market share over 35%. He is the best season-long WR option for the foreseeable future.
Next week, the Bucs are on a bye week. The week after, Evans and company are back against the Tennessee Titans, a defense that ranks near the league average in most receiving categories. Both Evans and Godwin are matchup-proof in season-long leagues. In daily fantasy leagues, use Evans and Godwin in tournaments for their upside, even in bad matchups.
Last Week Leader:
Stefon Diggs (MIN)
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the worst defenses in the league at defending deeper routes, and Stefon Diggs proved that this week. After a few less-than-impressive performances over the last few weeks, Diggs caught 7 passes on 11 targets for 167 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. This resulted in 250 total air yards, the most of any WR for Week 6.
Don't want to defend Diggs?
You're going to regret that decision. pic.twitter.com/lQ0zfOHOLt
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) October 13, 2019
On the season, Diggs has 577 total air yards, resulting in 24 receptions on 34 targets for 420 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. His target share is only 22%, as he battles Adam Thielen for Kirk Cousins’s attention. However, his air yards market share is 45%, which is the direct outcome of his high 17-yard aDOT. Thielen’s aDOT is 12, and his air yards market share is 36%. Granted, Thielen is much more consistent and sees more red zone targets, but Diggs has the greater upside.
Next week, the Minnesota Vikings travel into Detroit to battle the Lions. Matt Patricia’s defense has one of the league’s better average receiving yards per target, and one of the league’s best opposing QB completion percentages. This is going to be a difficult week for Cousins and company, and after two very successful games in a row, it may be time to fade Diggs and Thielen in daily fantasy leagues. In season-long leagues, both WRs are great options every week.
Unexpected Value:
Calvin Ridley (ATL)
In Week 6, Calvin Ridley looked mediocre with 4 receptions on 6 targets for 48 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Most fantasy owners are happy with this performance because of the touchdown, but Ridley is starting to become too touchdown dependent. Per Matthew Freedman, in games where Ridley scores a touchdown, he averages 18.6 fantasy points. In games where he does not score a touchdown, he averages 4.3 fantasy points.
Calvin Ridley might be the NFL's most TD-dependent player.
TD (10 games): 18.6 fantasy points
No TD (11 games): 4.3 fantasy pointsIn Week 6 he faces a Cardinals defense without two starting cornerbacks.
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) October 10, 2019
On the season, Ridley has shown potential. He definitely continues to play in the shadow of Julio Jones, especially with regard to his target share (15%). However, he has a decent air yards market share of 25%, and his aDOT is over 14. As the season progresses, and Mohamed Sanu’s role lessens, Ridley should increase his target share. His advanced metrics show that all he needs are opportunities to produce.
Next week, the Atlanta Falcons square off against the Los Angeles Rams, a defense that ranks near the middle of the league in almost all receiving categories. With 544 total air yards, Ridley has untapped upside. His high aDOT suggests deep play ability, and he has as many touchdowns as Jones this season. Buy low, if possible, on Ridley prior to the back-half of the season.
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
