Welcome to the week 6 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article attempts to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Air Yards Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Mike Evans remains the league leader in air yards, but his performance this last week is definitely worth consideration moving forward. Against the New Orleans Saints, Evans recorded 0 receptions on 3 targets, totaling only 22 air yards. To his credit, the Saints are extraordinarily effective at eliminating the outside WR presence, struggling against the slot WR across the middle of the field. Chris Godwin caught 7 passes on 9 targets for 125 receiving yards. He plays a majority of the time from the slot. Evans remains a dominant force in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass attack with 603 total air yards, a 15.9 aDOT, and a 0.59 WOPR.
This upcoming week, the Bucs square off against the Carolina Panthers in a home-away-from-home game in London. The Panthers’ cornerbacks are far less adept at defending big-bodied, outside WRs, and Evans should return to form. Fantasy owners questioned his upside earlier this season prior to an 8-reception, 190-receiving-yard, 3-touchdown massacre against the New York Giants. Both Evans and Godwin remain high-upside fantasy options in season-long and daily leagues.
Last Week Air Yards Leader:
D.J. Chark (JAC)
Barring an incredible performance from Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, or George Kittle on Monday Night Football, D.J. Chark led the league in air yards this week. He caught 8 passes on 11 targets for 164 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, showing great efficiency on 175 air yards. With an aDOT of 15.9, Chark is one of the Jacksonville Jaguars most important deep threats. Based on his advanced metrics, it is unlikely that Chark slows down any time soon.
On the season, Chark has 536 air yards, an aDOT over 14, and a WOPR of 0.59. He is gaining 38% of the team’s total air yards market share, and with over 100 total PPR fantasy points, Chark has surprised plenty of Dede Westbrook touters. Over the next few weeks, the Jaguars, led by the one and only Gardner Minshew, get to play the New Orleans Saints, Cincinnati Bengals, and New York Jets. Chark’s production should remain steady, and he can be trusted in season-long, as well as daily fantasy leagues.
Unexpected Value:
Mike Williams (LAC)
It is going to be difficult to outperform last week’s recommendation, Will Fuller, but Mike Williams has breakout potential. On the season, his total air yards are 416, aDOT is 14.9, and WOPR is 0.48. Williams’ air yards market share is 32%, which is only 5% lower than Keenan Allen. Unfortunately, his advanced metrics have only translated to 14 receptions on 28 targets for 231 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns this season. Such a significant difference in potential and actual receptions and receiving yards indicates that Williams is underperforming given his offensive opportunities.
Last week, Williams caught 6 passes on 13 targets for 74 receiving yards. More importantly, he recorded 155 air yards and a WOPR of 0.92. His air yards market share increased to 73% with Chris Harris shadowing Allen. With Hunter Henry and Dontrelle Inman sidelined, as well as Travis Benjamin playing with an injury, Williams is likely to continue to be heavily involved in the Chargers’ passing attack. As more defenses focus their energy on defending Allen, Williams will benefit.
This week, the Chargers play at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers are in the bottom 10 in the league in both receiving yards per target and completion percentage. Allen is unlikely to repeat his bad performance last week with only 50 air yards, 4 receptions, and 18 receiving yards, but as long as Henry and Inman are out, Williams will continue to see plenty of targets. Both Allen and Williams are worth starting in season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
