Welcome to the Week 9 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Move out of the way Keenan Allen, Mike Evans is back in first place for total air yards this season. Allen surpassed Evans after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bye week, but a hamstring injury limited him against the Chicago Bears. Despite seeing double-digit targets, Allen’s average depth of target (aDOT) was unusually low at 8.8. He earned 88 air yards. Evans, on the other hand, finished in second this week in total air yards with 188. He caught 6-of-8 targets for 198 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. After a slow start to the season, fantasy owners are finally reaping the rewards of drafting Evans early.
On the season, Evans eclipsed 1,000 total air yard by 11, catching 38 passes on 67 targets for 662 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. His aDOT is over 15, which is great for weekly fantasy upside, and his target share is 25%. With Chris Godwin on the opposite side of the field, Evans’ 36% of the Bucs’ air yards market share is very high. In fact, Godwin has almost 50 more receiving yards on the season than Evans, but Evans has far too many missed opportunities. While it may be difficult to imagine, he should only get better moving forward.
In Week 9, Tampa Bay gets a tough matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. Stacking Jameis Winston, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans in tournaments is a sneaky way to get high upside with limited ownership percentages. However, in cash games, Evans is not the best WR option. Wait until next week against the Arizona Cardinals to own him in every lineup.
Last Week Leader:
Kenny Golladay (DET)
Last week, Kenny Golladay led the league in total air yards with 188. More impressively, he earned 188 air yards on 8 total targets, catching 6 passes for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. With an aDOT over 20, Golladay showed off his huge upside. In Week 6, he eclipsed 100 receiving yards for the first time since Week 2. In Week 7, he caught 1 pass for 21 receiving yards. It is impossible to predict Golladay’s performances on a week-to-week basis, but his value in tournaments is clear.
On the season, he has 848 total air yards, 55 targets, 31 receptions, 508 receiving yards, and 6 touchdowns. His touchdown efficiency has pleased fantasy owners throughout the season, and his aDOT of 15.4 is promising, as well. With only 22% of the team’s target share, analysts might disregard how important Golladay is to the Detroit Lions’ offense, but his 32% of the team’s air yards market share tells a different story. Golladay is a high-upside deep threat every week.
In Week 9, the Lions square off against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders are one of the best teams in the league against the run, which should force Matthew Stafford into a busy game. The Raiders are liable to blow a coverage or two, and Golladay makes for a great tournament option. He tends to go under-owned based on his up-and-down performances.
Unexpected Value:
DeSean Jackson (PHI)
DeSean Jackson returned to practice this week, and it looks like he could play this weekend for the Philadelphia Eagles. He hasn’t played since Week 2 against the Atlanta Falcons, a game in which he failed to record a reception. In Week 1, he caught 8 passes for 154 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
First look at DeSean Jackson practicing. Going through individual drills. pic.twitter.com/QkAzH4yVr2
— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) October 30, 2019
During his short time on the field this season, Jackson earned a 23% target share and 41% air yards market share. His weight opportunity rating (WOPR) is 0.64, which is well above average, and his aDOT is over 15. Jackson has a limited sample size, but the last few seasons prove that he has plenty of upside as a deep threat.
This week, the Eagles battle the Chicago Bears in Philadelphia. Jackson will be welcomed back with open arms, as the Eagles are desperate for a WR that can stretch the field. Jackson’s presence should open up the middle of the field and help Zach Ertz, as well. Since he is returning from injury, Jackson’s price will be too low on DraftKings. Roster him in tournaments, but ensure that he is fully healthy first.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
