Welcome to the Week 5 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Week 3, Mike Evans led the NFL in air yards with an outstanding 244. This week, he leads all wide receivers, surpassing Keenan Allen, with 581 total air yards. His aDOT is 16.6, which is high relative to other WR1s. Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense is loaded with potential targets for QB, Jameis Winston. Evans only earns 25% of the team’s total target share, compared to 24% for Chris Godwin. His WOPR, or weighted opportunity rating, is still .10 points higher than Godwin’s, and Evans should remain the top option in Tampa Bay. ‘
This weekend, the Bucs travel into New Orleans to face off against the Saints, in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Saints are known for their ability to cover the outside WRs, so it would not be surprising to see Godwin, who plays 47.4% of his snaps from the slot, have a better statistical outing than Evans. Even so, Evans is a lock in season-long leagues, as well as worth consideration in daily fantasy leagues.
Last Week Leader:
John Brown (BUF)
On the season, John Brown ranks in the top 30 for total air yards, but that number is likely inflated due to his stellar Week 4 performance, in which he led the NFL with 173 air yards. Brown has been somewhat of a go-to WR for the Buffalo Bills early in the season, averaging 24.6% of total targets, as well as 20% of red zone targets.
Last week, Brown’s total target share was normal at 25%. His WOPR was 0.61, which is actually slightly lower than that of Cole Beasley. Most importantly, his aDOT was 15.7, which shows that Brown is the WR that Josh Allen, or whoever starts at QB for Buffalo, targets down the field. Brown only converted 5 of his 11 total targets for 69 yards and 0 touchdowns, but his upside is clear.
This week, against the Tennessee Titans, Brown is on potential breakout alert. He can be rostered in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Unexpected Value:
Will Fuller (HOU)
Will Fuller is currently top 15 in the league in total air yards with 399, 63 shy of his teammate DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins, on the season, has 24 receptions on 36 targets for 259 total receiving yards. Fuller, on the other hand, has 14 receptions on 23 targets for 183 total receiving yards. Through four weeks, both Hopkins and Fuller are underperforming. As far as a buy-low, Hopkins is as good of a buy as any WR in the league right now. Do not sell.
Fuller is worth consideration in season-long and daily fantasy leagues, as he is currently getting overlooked. His aDOT is 17.3, which is just under 5 yards higher than Hopkins. He is only seeing 18% of the team’s total target share, but it is obvious via the advanced metrics that Deshaun Watson loves Fuller as a deep threat. When these two finally get on the same page, a 150+ receiving yard, 2 touchdown performance is possible. Buy now on the Houston Texans’ WRs.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
