Welcome to the week 16 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
It’ll be interesting to see if anyone can catch up to Mike Evans after he suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for the remainder of the season. For now, he still leads the league in total air yards. Last week, he did not play.
On the season, Evans surpassed 1,800 total air yards, catching 67-of-118 targets for 1,157 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 15.4, and his air yards market share came in at 35%. Fantasy owners can’t complain about his 230.7 point-per-reception fantasy points, but not having him in the final weeks of the fantasy football playoffs will hurt.
This Sunday, Evans will not suit up. Chris Godwin is out as well. Breshad Perriman is stepping into a much larger role, and last week, he earned over 120 total air yards, catching 5-of-6 targets for 113 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. He is worth consideration in both daily fantasy and season-long football leagues.
Last Week Leader:
Allen Robinson (CHI)
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The Chicago Bears opened up their offense for one of the first times all season, and both Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller landed in the top 3 in total air yards for Week 15. Robinson topped all wide receivers with 237 total air yards, while Miller placed third with 198. Robinson caught 7-of-14 targets for 125 receiving yards, and Miller brought down 9-of-15 targets for 118 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. It looks like Mitchell Trubisky is finally starting to come into his own, though a little late to salvage the Bears’ 2019 season. Robinson earned the higher aDOT at 16.9 compared to Miller’s 13.2, giving him a higher air yards market share but lower target share.
On the season, Robinson is one of the best wide receivers in the league in total air yards at 1,476. He caught 83-of-130 targets for 1,023 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns thus far. His aDOT is slightly under 12 yards, and his air yards market share is an outstanding 37%. His target share is impressive at 26%. Robinson remains one of the better receiving options in the NFL, and fantasy owners can trust him in all leagues and formats, even with Miller starting to earn a higher percentage of the team’s total targets.
In Week 16, the Bears square off against the uptempo Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are a difficult team to beat, but that is mainly due to their high-powered offense. If Matt Nagy continues to allow Trubisky to open up downfield, Robinson will remain a great option in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues. Anthony Miller is worth the upside in daily fantasy leagues, as well. Pair the duo with Trubisky for maximum upside.
Unexpected Value:
Danny Amendola (DET)
Danny Amendola, after a very slow 2019 campaign, excelled in Week 15 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With Marvin Jones out of the picture due to an ankle injury, the former New England Patriot ran 40 routes, catching 8-of-13 targets for 102 receiving yards. He totaled 138 air yards. Kenny Golladay is struggling with rookie quarterback David Blough starting, but Amendola runs most of his routes out of the slot or relatively close to the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target (aDOT) barely surpassed 10 yards last week, and it should remain the same this week. With 39% of the Lions’ air yards market share and 30% of their target share in Week 15, fantasy owners better pay attention to Amendola this upcoming week against the Denver Broncos.
In 2019, Amendola earned 785 total air yards, bringing down 58-of-90 targets for 641 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. His red-zone efficiency is obviously poor, but in point-per-reception leagues, his frequent targets make him worth rostering. On the season, his air yards market share is 17% and his target share is 19%. In Week 15, both those percentages skyrocketed and should remain high in Week 16. His aDOT is low at 8.7, but he doesn’t need deeper routes or big plays to rack up fantasy points.
This week, roster Amendola in all leagues – both the daily and season-long varieties. Jones is out for the season with ankle and knee injuries, and Amendola is stepping into a big offensive role. Kenny Golladay is going to be covered by one of the league’s best cornerbacks, Chris Harris, opening up even more opportunity for Amendola. He is a great check-down option for the Lions’ young quarterback.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
