Welcome to the week 15 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
It’ll be interesting to see if anyone can catch up to Mike Evans after he suffered a hamstring injury that will keep him out for the remainder of the season. For now, he still leads the league in total air yards. Last week, he earned only 2 targets, catching 1 pass for 61 receiving yards and a touchdown. His 47 total air yards in Week 14 are the last that he will earn in 2019.
On the season, Evans surpassed 1,800 total air yards, catching 67-of-118 targets for 1,157 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. His average depth of target (aDOT) was 15.4, and his air yards market share came in at 35%. Fantasy owners can’t complain about his 230.7 point-per-reception fantasy points, but not having him in the final weeks of the fantasy football playoffs will hurt.
This Sunday, Evans will not suit up. Chris Godwin steps into the WR1 role in Tampa Bay, as the Buccaneers square off against the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Godwin’s air yards market share is currently 23% on the season, but that percentage will skyrocket this weekend. He can be rostered in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues without hesitation.
Last Week Leader:
DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)
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The Houston Texans, after going down on the scoreboard to the Denver Broncos early, forced the ball to DeAndre Hopkins for a majority of last week’s game. He caught 7-of-13 targets for 120 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, totaling 194 air yards. His aDOT was high enough at 14.9 yards, and his air yards market share totaled 45%. The Broncos struggled to contain one of the league’s best wide receivers, but ultimately ended up on the winning side of last Sunday’s contest.
On the season, Hopkins is one of the few wide receivers in the league that might surpass Mike Evans after his hamstring injury. He earned 1,444 total air yards in 2019 thus far, catching 93-of-133 targets for 1,023 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. His lower 10.9 aDOT is concerning, but he earns enough volume in the Texans’ pass-heavy offense to ignore it. His air yards market share on the season is 35%, and his target share is 30%. Due to all his receptions, Hopkins actually produced more point-per-reception fantasy points than Evans this season at 239.1.
In Week 15, the Texans get a great matchup against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans tend to control the clock with Derrick Henry, but Deshaun Watson and company should have plenty of scoring opportunities. In season-long leagues, Hopkins is a must-start, as he has been all season. In daily fantasy leagues, he is worth consideration in both 50/50 contests and GPPs.
Unexpected Value:
Calvin Ridley (ATL)
Unfortunately, due to an abdominal injury, Calvin Ridley is out for the remainder of the season. He is, however, a great addition in dynasty leagues, as fantasy owners are currently seeking out other sophomore wide receivers like D.J. Moore, D.J. Chark, and Courtland Sutton. Last week, Ridley caught all 5-of-5 targets for 76 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. He earned 64 total air yards before falling victim to the injury bug. Julio Jones is obviously the top option in Atlanta, but Ridley showed plenty of upside this season.
In 2019, Ridley earned 1,246 total air yards, catching 63-of-93 targets for 866 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. His air yards market share failed to eclipse 30% because of Jones, and his target share failed to surpass 20%. His weighted opportunity rating was low at 0.44, which suggests nearly 900 receiving yards is closer to Ridley’s floor than his ceiling. As Jones continues to age, Ridley’s upside will increase. He is behind both Moore and Chark in total air yards this season, but slightly ahead of Sutton. He tends to not be in the same conversation as those three, so right now is the perfect buy-low time on Atlanta’s future star wide receiver.
This week, load up on Jones if he plays. He is currently questionable. Both Russell Gage and Justin Hardy are worth consideration, as well. The Falcons get a tough matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, but the New Orleans Saints proved teams can pass against them. This could turn into a high-scoring affair, as the Falcons should be losing early.
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
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