Welcome to the week 14 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Is it even necessary to have this category at this point in the season? Mike Evans is so far ahead of all other wide receivers in total air yards that it is seemingly impossible for him to drop to the number two spot. Last week, he earned 170 total air yards with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.5 yards. His air yards market share was 50%, and he caught 4-of-11 targets for 53 receiving yards. It was a down week for Evans, but enough to keep him in first place.
On the season, Evans eclipsed the 1,750 air yards mark, topping the second-place Kenny Golladay by over 400 air yards. He brought down 66-of-116 targets for over 1,000 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. His air yards market share is over 35%, and his aDOT is over 15 yards.
This Sunday, Evans squares off against the Indianapolis Colts. He is matchup-proof. With season-long fantasy leagues heading into the playoffs, Evans is obviously a must-start. In daily fantasy leagues, he is always worth consideration in both 50/50 contests and tournaments.
Last Week Leader:
Alshon Jeffery (PHI)
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After dealing with an ankle injury in Week 12, Alshon Jeffery bounced back in a huge way against the Miami Dolphins’ atrocious secondary. He caught 9-of-16 targets for 137 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Most importantly, he led the NFL in total air yards with 267. Carson Wentz struggled over the last few weeks, but Jeffery remains a dangerous receiving option. His aDOT was over 16 yards, and his air yards market share eclipsed 50%. He led the NFL in weighted opportunity rating (WOPR), as well.
On the season, Jeffery has 768 total air yards, converting that into 490 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. He caught 43-of-71 targets. Unfortunately for the Philadelphia Eagles, he was plagued by the injury bug for a few weeks, limiting his potential upside. His air yards market share is over 30%, and his target share is over 25%. It is clear that Jeffery is the Eagles’ top receiving option when healthy. His aDOT on the season is low at 10.8 yards, but perhaps the Eagles figured out that throwing the ball downfield is a more effective strategy for a receiver with Jeffery’s frame. At least, after his performance last week, that is the hope in Philadelphia.
In Week 14, the Eagles get an easy matchup against the New York Giants. The Giants are attempting to block the Eagles’ path to a potential playoff birth, and with Daniel Jones out due to an ankle sprain, Eli Manning stands in Philadelphia’s way. Jeffery should be able to find separation against the Giants’ defensive backs, and he has the same upside he had against the Dolphins, making him a great option in both season-long and daily fantasy leagues.
Unexpected Value:
Anthony Miller (CHI)
The Chicago Bears decided to give Anthony Miller an increased role in the offense over the last few weeks. In Week 13, he earned 140 total air yards, catching 9-of-13 targets for 140 receiving yards. His aDOT was low at 10.8, but he is agile enough to earn yards after the catch. His air yards market share eclipsed 40%, which is great considering he plays on the same team as Allen Robinson. This is good news for the sophomore wide receiver out of Memphis. Next season, expect a breakout.
In 2019, Miller earned slightly over 650 total air yards, securing 489 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns. That was prior to Thursday’s game against the Cowboys, in which Miller earned his first touchdown of the season. His aDOT is low, as well as his air yards market share and target share, which suggests that the recent uptick is not mere coincidence. Miller is taking on a larger role, and he is the perfect buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues.
This week, Anthony Miller played on Thursday night. The Bears defeated the Dallas Cowboys 31-24, and Miller recorded 3 receptions for 42 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Next week, the Bears get a much tougher matchup against the Green Bay Packers in Wisconsin. That game could turn into a shootout, making Miller worth consideration in deeper season-long leagues and daily fantasy leagues due to his lower price tag.
Follow Jason Bales (@BalesTJason)
*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
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