Welcome to the week 13 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Mike Evans continues to lead the league in total air yards. Last week, he failed to eclipse the 100 yard mark against the Atlanta Falcons, converting 87 air yards into 50 receiving yards. Jameis Winston only targeted him 8 times, and he caught 4 of those targets. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a rather stagnant day as an offense, and Evans will return stronger than ever next week.
On the season, Evans is officially over 1,500 total air yards with an average depth of target (aDOT) over 15. His air yards market share is over 35%, and his target share is 24%. He converted 105 targets into 62 receptions for 1,043 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns. No team in the league can stop him.
This Sunday, Evans gets a good matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that entered the season with a tough-looking defense. After the loss of Jalen Ramsey, they fell apart as a unit. In Week 12, the Tennessee Titans scored over 40 points against the Jaguars. Tampa Bay has a much more explosive offense than the Titans, and Evans must be rostered in both season-long and daily fantasy football leagues.
Last Week Leader:
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
“Scary” Terry McLaurin led all wide receivers in Week 12 with over 200 total air yards. Dwayne Haskins targeted him 12 times, but only successfully completed 5 passes for 72 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns. McLaurin has plenty of potential with Haskins under center, but as a duo, they need to be more efficient. McLaurin earned over 50% of the team’s total air yards market share, as well as 40% of the team’s total target share. While McLaurin does remain the best receiving option in the nation’s capital, forcing the ball toward him so often is too predictable for defenses to not adjust.
On the season, McLaurin is dealing with instability at the quarterback position. He still managed to earn 993 total air yards, converting them into 638 receiving yards. He caught 40-of-68 targets and scored 5 touchdowns in 2019 thus far. His aDOT is over 14, and his total air yards market share on the season is 45%, which trails only Tyreek Hill (46%).
In Week 13, the Washington Redskins get a tough matchup against the Carolina Panthers. McLaurin is nearly a must-start in season-long leagues, but with a bad matchup, he can be faded in daily fantasy contests. Moving forward, he is a great add for any dynasty league, as his upside will only increase as his connection with Haskins develops. The Redskins haven’t had a reliable wide receiver since Santana Moss. McLaurin is here to stay.
Unexpected Value:
Courtland Sutton (DEN)
Last week, Courtland Sutton caught 1 pass for 27 yards, but he was targeted 8 times and earned over 100 total air yards. The Denver Broncos’ offense looked horrible, and Sutton suffered. Fortunately for Sutton supporters, he gobbled up (no pun intended – Happy Thanksgiving!) an air yards market share of over 75%. His target share was over 30%. The Broncos obviously wanted to force him the football, but it didn’t work.
On the season, Sutton’s numbers are much more impressive. He is one of the “big three” sophomore wide receivers in the league right now – the other two being D.J. Chark and D.J. Moore. He earned slightly over 1,000 total air yards, catching 50-of-84 targets for 832 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. His aDOT is over 12, and most impressively, his total air yards market share is 41%, which is third-highest in the league behind Terry McLaurin and Tyreek Hill. Sutton is the obvious top receiving option in Denver.
Next week, the Broncs get a great matchup against the loose Los Angeles Chargers’ defense. If Philip Rivers continues to struggle with turnovers, Sutton could see plenty of great red zone opportunities, as well. In season-long leagues, makes for a great WR2 or WR3 option. In daily fantasy contests, he might go slightly underlooked after his poor performance last week.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
