Welcome to the Week 12 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Surprise! Mike Evans is still leading the league in total air yards. Last week, he added 119 air yards to his season total, catching 4-of-8 targets for 69 yards. The New Orleans Saints are particularly good at defending the sidelines, and Evans plays a majority of his snaps on the outside. This was a much better performance than his first meeting with the Saints where he didn’t record a reception, and Jameis Winston’s confidence in his star wide receiver is at an all-time high. Evans will continue to lead the league, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense, in air yards.
On the season, Evans owns 1,510 total air yards on 97 targets. Of those 97 targets, he brought down 58 passes for 993 yards and 7 touchdowns. His total air yards market share is 36%, which is significant considering how well Chris Godwin is performing this season. His target share is lower at 24%. Godwin tends to secure higher target volume, but his average depth of target (aDOT) is lower than Evans’s, which currently sits at 15.6 yards. Evans and Godwin compliment each other in Tampa Bay’s offense.
This Sunday, Evans gets a good matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, making him an elite option in both daily and season-long fantasy leagues. The Falcons are currently ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in passing yards allowed per game, as well as average yards per completion.
Last Week Leader:
D.J. Chark (JAC)
When the Jacksonville Jaguars decided to bench Gardner Minshew in favor of a healthy Nick Foles, fantasy owners questioned the impact that it might have on D.J. Chark’s success. Under Minshew, Chark developed into one of the better wide receivers in the league. Foles return didn’t thwart that development. Last week, Chark led the league in total air yards with 218 on 15 targets. He caught 8 passes for 104 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. His air yards market share surpassed 50%, and it is clear that even with Foles back, Chark is the leader in Jacksonville’s offense.
On the season, Chark recently surpassed 1,000 total air yards, converting 85 targets into 51 receptions for 796 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. His long frame makes him a great red zone target, and the Jaguars are using him effectively this season. His total air yards market share is slightly under 40%, and his target share is 23%. His weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) is similar to that of Mike Evans, suggesting he is about equally as important to his team’s offense. The hype surrounding Dede Westbrook at the beginning of the season is dead. Chark’s hype is alive and well.
This week, the Jaguars square off against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are currently ranked 11th-worst in the league in passing yards allowed per game, which is likely lower than it could be if the Titans kept games competitive. Chark is in a good spot to continue to excel as Jacksonville’s best wide out. It will be interesting to keep an eye on how his relationship with Foles develops over the next couple of weeks.
Unexpected Value:
Johnny Holton (PIT)
With JuJu Smith-Schuster injured last week, Johnny Holton stepped into a larger role for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense. He ended the game with 7 targets, catching 1 pass for 18 receiving yards. However, those 7 targets netted 195 air yards, resulting in a ridiculous 27.9 aDOT. Holton’s total air yards market share was 45%, despite a 16% target share. This suggests that Holton is a very high-upside wide receiver with Smith-Schuster on the sidelines.
On the season, Holton is barely better than his last game. He only surpassed one target in two games this season, and prior to last week against the Cleveland Browns, the last time he saw more than one target was Week 1. With only 2 receptions for 22 yards in 2019, Holton is not on any fantasy owners’ radar. However, he might be a decent long-term stash in dynasty leagues, especially considering how poorly 2019 has treated Smith-Schuster thus far.
If Smith-Schuster sits out in Week 12, Holton is worth consideration in tournaments due to his high upside. The Steelers play the Bengals this week, and the Bengals don’t do anything well, especially defend the pass.They’re ninth-worst in the league with 258.1 passing yards allowed per game.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
