Welcome to the week 11 edition of Jason’s NFL air yards analysis. This article is an attempt to identify wide receivers that are highly involved in a coach’s offensive game plan. Air yards accurately predict a coach’s intention, as even failed attempts to get certain players involved in the game are important. Over the course of the season, players with more air yards offer higher upside, especially when those players are overlooked by the general public. For a more in-depth understanding of what exactly air yards are, please refer to this linked explanation.
Year-Long Leader:
Mike Evans (TB)
Last week, the air yards database wasn’t working properly. Analysts don’t need a database to know that Mike Evans is leading the air yards race through Week 10, though. Keenan Allen is second in the league in total air yards, and he is 250 short of Evans. Last week, Evans added 123 air yards to his total, catching 4-of-6 targets for 82 receiving yards. His target share dropped significantly to 12%, but his average depth of target (aDOT) remained high at over 20. Chris Godwin saw more targets on shorter routes, but Evans should continue to see a significant portion of the team’s total target and air yards market share moving forward.
On the season, Evans aDOT is over 15, his total air yards market share is 38%, and his weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) is 0.64. Earlier in the season, fantasy owners experienced a short scare when Godwin looked like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ number one wide receiver, but that is clearly not the case. Evans brought in 54 of his 89 targets this season for slightly under 1,000 yards and 7 touchdowns.
This Sunday, Evans gets a tough matchup against the New Orleans Saints. In his first game against Marshon Lattimore, the league’s air yards leader failed to record a reception. Luckily for Evans, Lattimore is looking increasingly like he is going to sit out. If he does, Evans can be used in tournaments, but even without Lattimore, the Saints do a good job at defending the sidelines. Chris Godwin runs more routes out of the slot, crossing the center of the field more often. He is the play this weekend. Evans might be a trap in Week 11, but for the rest of the season, he remains the best fantasy WR in the league.
Last Week Leader:
Tyreek Hill (KC)
The Kansas City Chiefs clearly wanted to force the ball to Tyreek Hill in Week 10 against the Tennessee Titans. Patrick Mahomes returned from injury, and he targeted Hill 19 times throughout the game. The speedy wide receiver caught 11 of those targets for 157 yards and 1 touchdown. Those 19 targets resulted in 237 air yards, which led the week. Hill garnered an aDOT over 12, and his total air yards market share eclipsed 50%. Only three players earned a higher air yards market share percentage last week – Odell Beckham Jr., DeVante Parker, and Darius Slayton.
On the season, Hill’s numbers are slightly deflated due to his suspension. He has under 800 air yards, earning him 543 receiving yards on 33 receptions. Five of those receptions went for touchdowns. Most importantly, when Hill is on the field, Mahomes looks in his direction. He currently has 49% of the team’s total air yards market share, as well as 24% of the team’s total target share. It is clear that Hill will be the go-to target for Mahomes for the rest of the season.
In Week 11, the Chiefs travel to sunny California to square off against the Los Angeles Chargers. Philip Rivers and company looked horrible on Thursday night against the Oakland Raiders, and the Chiefs have a much more explosive offense. If the Chargers are frequently turning the ball over, the Chiefs should have an offensive field day. Hill is eligible in both daily and season-long fantasy leagues.
Unexpected Value:
Michael Gallup (DAL)
Michael Gallup impressed fantasy owners last week with 76 yards and 1 touchdown on 4 receptions. He could’ve had a much better performance. On 10 targets, he earned 165 air yards. The Dallas Cowboys threw Gallup the ball 21% of the time, and his air yards market share was 25%. The Cowboys’ young wide receiver is getting better as his career progresses, and he is in line for a massive breakout in 2020.
On the season, Gallup’s performances are up and down. He is gaining over 25% of the team’s total air yards market share, making him one of Dak Prescott’s favorite targets. However, his 674 total air yards are semi-disappointing for fantasy owners that wanted WR1 production from Gallup this season. He has 33 receptions on 56 targets for 530 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. His aDOT is 12, which suggests that he is being targeted down the field. Gallup has plenty of speed and athleticism, and now is a good buy-low time in dynasty leagues.
Next week, the Cowboys get a good matchup against the Detroit Lions, a team that might be without Matthew Stafford. This is expected to be one of the highest-scoring affairs of the week via Vegas, and Gallup should benefit. He has plenty of upside on a weekly basis, but Week 11 is definitely a time to specifically target the Cowboys’ rising star.
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*All statistics provided by Josh Hermsmeyer’s airyards.com*
