More or Less 2/2 (Fantasy Points) – LNG/DMO
I think we get massive value here in a game that I expect LNG to win 2-1 with the possibility of a sweep if they can figure out how to close out an opponent cleanly. Asura is averaging 73.3 points on the season (9 matches) in which he’s scored 65.5 or more points in 7 of the 9, with the only exceptions being a recent upset to VG in which he scored 47.1 and a 2-0 sweep back in January. Asura holds a massive advantage of his opponent DMO and should be able to rack up points with his 77.6% Kill Participation and his ability to score for his team even in losses or games in which they’re trailing. I currently have him projected to smash this number, at around 80 fantasy points, and barring a 2-0 sweep by DMO (+240 underdogs), I think Asura should easily hit value.
On the other hand, Xiaopeng is on a struggling team and has failed to put up numbers all season. Over his last 6 matches for DMO in which they’ve lost (which I project them to here), he has only average 22.4 fantasy points with an average of 7.7 deaths in those same games compared to only an average of 2.2 kills. I think the only where Xiaopeng hits value here is if he can dominate the TOP lane against Xx but I think it’s unlikely given LNG’s ability to control the game and DMO’s high average deaths per game (14.4).
More or Less 3/3 (Fantasy Points) – T1/GEN
This should be a good game to watch and while difficult to target in DFS since the winner could come from either side, I think it gives great opportunity to rack up fantasy points as I expected a 3 game match. In matches this season where T1 has won 2-1, Teddy averages 82.7 fantasy points and in matches they’ve lost he still averages about 74.2. I like the lack of variance you’re getting here and if T1 is forced to be aggressive due to GEN.G’s playing style, I think it’s a great spot for Teddy. (2 units).
On the Gen.G side, Bdd and Ruler are a little riskier as they normally will pay off these fantasy projections with a victory, as Bdd averages about 84 points in a 2-0 or 2-1 win while Ruler averages about 78 fantasy points in a 2-0 or 2-1 win. Gen.G is the current favored team but if T1 comes out hot and Faker/Teddy get going, they could be in store for a loss. I think in a loss or tie, Bdd is the more stable performer so I like his over here but I will go against the odds and say Ruler goes UNDER as he’s gone under this number in his last 5 of 6 matches. Obviously being a 3/3 and riskier, I would play less of your bankroll on this play (0.5 units).
