After yesterday’s NBA take down, we’re going to not only see what values and better plays are for the pros today, but we’re also going to dip our feet in the waters of college basketball.
College basketball betting is so much different than betting NBA. In the NBA:
1. You have a finite number of teams and match ups,
2. 12 guys to a team in which typically 8-9 play in regular rotations.
3. You have several match ups between the same teams.
4. The player mentality is so much different–in college, you have say 30 games a year versus almost 3 times as may for professionals.
5. The days between games can be pretty long for CBB, whereas you may be playing your 4th game in six nights in the NBA.
It makes a difference.
So then how do you look at CBB vs. NBA? There are a ton of factors, but you have to add the touch of the coach to the analytics. Coaching in college is king–the players listen, the coach makes player personnel decisions, and the style is almost exact every game. This means that you should know the types of coaches in NCAA basketball–strategic, innovative, preparation, flexible. For example–Tom Izzo is a strategic coach with tremendous preparation. Shaka Smart is an innovative coach with flexibility to his game. These things make a difference.
Enough of the philosophies, already! Get to the good stuff!
NCAAB:
Central Michigan @ Akron (-6.5)
This game seems to be off as far as the line goes. This is more than likely due to the overvaluing of the games between these two in which CMU, at home just 2 weeks ago, had to win by 2 in OT over the Zips. However, this is a misleading result due to several factors. When you look at different trends and stats:
–AKR 2-8 ATS L10, including 0-5 L5
–AKR is 265th in NCAA in FG %, CMU 135th
–Pace favors CMU
–Coach Keno Davis style is more shooting, more defense. He is a flexible coach but still strategic.
–CMU 4-1 SU on the road
–AKR has shot horrendously the last 3 games (38% overall FG, 26% 3PT)
The Take: CMU +6.5
St. Peter’s @ Niagara (-3) 140 O/U
Normally, betting on 2 teams with losing records is a crap shoot, especially in the pros. However, this game gives bet signals to show that the line is off overall.
–Favorite is 4-1 ATS L5
–NIA much better FT shooting team than STP (makes huge difference with tighter lines)
–NIA doesn’t shoot great, but they do shoot often–and STP is 338th in NCAAB defending 3PT
–STP 0-3 SU when allowing over 70 pts (NIA avgs. 74 ppg)
While Niagara isn’t exactly a sure bet, the numbers and trends certainly show in the data that they should win this game with a STP team that, while overall 5-12, is 3-3 over last six. Regardless of the Peacocks better play, Niagara is the better play here:
The Take: Niagara -3
Portland @ Oklahoma City (-5.5), 227.5 O/U
These two teams meet for the 2nd time in less than a month, with the first being a nip and tuck game where the Thunder prevailed by 2. The number that sticks out here is the O/U. The number seems to be a result of looking at tired legs–this will be the 4th game in 6 days for both teams.
Some items to consider:
–OKC Overs 6-1 L7
–L5 game averages: POR 228, OKC 247
–Both teams @ 40% 3PT shooting L5
–L5: POR opp fg % 47.9%. OKC 50%
These teams have both been shooting the ball well and haven’t exactly been defending with vigor. While some believe that tired legs equals poor shooting, it also means poor defense, and with both teams being efficient on the offensive boards, this should give plenty of chances for garbage buckets in what should also be a fun game to watch with Lillard and Westbrook trading punches. The public right now is betting the under feverishly, but I’m going contrarian.
The Take: Over 227.5
Good luck and good gambling!
NOTE: Timmay’s betting style incorporates a conglomerate of data, analytics, his own proprietary model, and looks for the biggest edge in plays. While there are always some “square” tendencies for some games, some of the betting picks will be of the variety that goes against the grain versus the public. He covers NBA, MLB, NFL, NCAAB, and NCAAF. Successfully sports gambling for over 15 years, Timmay owns and operates @geeksgambling on twitter.
