The Super Bowl for Sports Bettors, Investors and everyone in between
When you look in the mirror dreaming of that life altering victory, what do you see? Do you see your potential as that of a Jeff Bezos, Lebron James or Usain Bolt? If you’re reading this, you sure as hell do not look in that mirror looking for mediocrity. Whether you are a marketing genius, the dominant force in your college buddy’s fantasy football pool, or just proudly living in Momma’s basement, you would welcome the chance to be the one standing atop the world’s premiere competition for bettors and sports investors – The SuperContest – if only to look yourself in the mirror tomorrow and say – ‘I did it, I beat everyone, I won the big one, I am the best.’ Making a million+ dollars on top of it might even make it taste that much sweeter.
The SuperContest – by Westgate in Las Vegas
Seems like a dream doesn’t it? Well, this time last year in 2018 my investment partner and I thought so too. We had considered entering this premiere competition before – the lauded SuperContest – akin to the World Series of Poker Championship but for NFL handicappers. Last year we sucked it up, pulled the trigger and invested $1500 into it to see how we might fare against the best of the best. This contest features the who’s who of sports bettors and now we were all locked in the same starting gate, facing off to see who would prove themselves and come out on top.
Finishing in top 4% – is that good enough?
We were right in the thick of it in 2018, in position to actually win the epoch of sports betting competitions. However, I’ll start at the end, because this is about moving forward to evolve, not dreaming about what could have been. We, GOLCONDA FUND finished in 101st place out of about 3,000 entries, or about the top 4%. One shy of finishing in the money. At the halfway point we were in 59th place, in position to make hundreds of thousands of dollars if we gained a game or two.
What went wrong? Oh, I’ll get to that. What went right? Ohhh, I’ll show you. But, most importantly, how can we take what we learned in 2018 and move our winning percentage from 61.9% to 70% and take home a return on our investment? How can we improve upon a 52-32-1 record? Or best yet, how can we pick the correct side of just a few more games and bring in close to 2 million dollars for top prize and a first-place finish?
How to Turn a Profit in the SuperContest
My cousin and I evolved our sports betting tactics to mirror financial investment strategy over the last seven years. 2018 we put our market strategy to the ultimate test.
If we entered the SuperContest each year over the next 20 years, we would be investing $30,000 over that time, or $1500 a year. All we need to do is to finish in 10th place once in 20 years to turn a 300% profit, or turn 30K into about 90K. And that’s our targeted floor. The ceiling? Well, last year’s winner raked in 1.4 million off a $1500 investment. Needless to say, there is hefty upside, 93,000% of it. And to boot, this year’s payout will be even higher.
Last year we finished just under 62% success rate over 85 picks in 17 weeks, finishing tied for 101st place, half a point out of the money, and if we would have had a couple more correct picks, we would have covered our entry fee in the SuperContest for the next 20 years.
Why should you consider entering the Super Contest?
I’ll be completely honest; I don’t think most should enter if they cannot hit 65% or don’t have the liquidity in their bank roll. It is overly bloated with entries, and the Westgate is not expanding its payout structure. It’s like in poker when too many people play their hand during the pre-flop. Your odds go down whether you have pocket Aces or not. You may still be in the lead, but now you have a slight edge compared to an enormous one when going heads up.
PROS AND CONS
CON 1 – POPULARITY
As the SuperContest grows in popularity, it is going to be ever more difficult to see a consistent return for finishing in the upper tier, even if predicting winners at a higher and higher rate, season after season. The outliers, the lucky ones and the fluke seasons will create a volatility that may require a 70-75% mark to have a chance to win the top spot.
CON 2 – PAY OUT STRUCTURE
What needs to happen for the SuperContest to be worth the entry fee is a deeper pay out structure. The structure should go out further than the top 2%. Top 5% seems more appropriate, or even up to the top 10%. Had the SuperContest paid out 10%, a 101st place finish would have seen a return that likely covered the cost of entry and then some, a nice incentive to give it a shot the next year for those with weaker risk appetites.
THE PRO – DREAM BIG. BE BIG. DO BIG.
Let’s be honest, you’re not reading this to learn about why you shouldn’t enter the SuperContest. You want to know why you should and better yet – how to win. Well, I will give you the tips beat into our heads. Most of which we already knew, but a good reminder never hurts. Gaining some perspective in a high pressure, one mistake costs thousands competition ($2,267.30 to be exact) is great way to improve performance:
HOW TO WIN
1 – Consider both sides
Seems rudimentary and like common sense. It’s not always, not when reviewing a 16 game slate and maybe betting other sports too. If you love the Patriots to cover, have you actually considered the Bills? If you love the Saints, have you considered the Bucs? A common mistake by even professional bettors, something we notice in many of their podcasts and information distribution channels, is we don’t always walk a mile in the less palatable team’s shoes – something world champion debaters would never go without. They consider both sides of an argument or side, which either strengthens their original thesis or takes them off it. If you think it is a slam dunk from the outset, SO DOES EVERYONE ELSE. You aren’t gaining ground if everyone is thinking the same obvious thing.
2 – No edge, no play
If you are guessing, don’t pick that game. Have an edge that aligns with your strategy, or at worst aligns against the public. Another way to put it is finding the value, the market discrepancy or know something ESPN or Wager Talk are not discussing in their analysis, or whatever you use for your intel. Line moves can help you narrow in on what games to consider as well, just like in betting.
3 – Seek Alpha
One thing few bettors will talk about in regards to the SuperContest is seeking alpha. What is that? It’s gains against the relative market, or in this case the field. The field is made up of the best sports handicappers out there. Know what they are going to do, because even they become predictable. Many of these sports handicappers tend to rely on their 60% betting success models, but that’s not going to win the SuperContest. Why? You need to aim for 70% if you want to win.
4 – Fundamentally no team is as good or as bad as you think
Most of the time no team is as bad or as good as you think it is. This seems like a layman’s conclusion, but sometimes simplicity highlights the most profound truths. When a team is down on their luck, they are still full of professional athletes. They are still desperate to at worst play for their next contract and pay check. 
The outliers are teams like the 2014 Patriots who dominated all season, and then even they lost in the Super Bowl after an undefeated season to a lesser team. Even the best teams in history are made up of humans. Never get too high or low on a team. Let the market do that. That’s when you strike.
5 – The Line is based on Market Sentiment not predicting final scores
Remember, the line is tied to market sentiment, not the final score of a game. This number matters secondarily to the fundamental match up, which team has the edge and how this game may unfold. This is counter to some common belief in sports betting circles where line moves are the be all end all. That is viable for sports betting, but not the SuperContest.
That said, finding edge with under dogs is a more equitable strategy than seeking what the public might be looking for – favorites. Last year the top 10 finishers in the SuperContest picked over 60% underdogs and performed the best with those picks.It doesn’t mean this will happen again, as in 2017 the winner was more evenly split, but the reason underdogs are typically a stronger play, when there is value, is because they are generally less palatable to the public or novice. So underdogs have more value built into their side of the line.
6 – Get over the Butt Hurt, and fast
You will pick a game, regret it, and it will go down faster than the Titanic. Get over it. Especially before teams might teeter and give up on a week / season, move on fast. You know who else is butt hurt after a beat down? The team that got destroyed; the players, the fans, the coaches. Generally, they are pissed, focused and ready to get back to proving themselves on the football field. The opposite tends to be true for those who are peaking. It doesn’t mean either will cover their next week’s line, but don’t fade a team just because you were wrong the week before. You may have just been a week early.
7 – Know what you don’t know.
This may seem more philosophical than pragmatic, but wisdom is knowing what you don’t know. Our two worst weeks on the season, the only two weeks we finished less than .500 were the two weeks we knew our model had no edge. We knew we were not finding any value and had nowhere to go other than to start guessing. One of these weeks was the same week Vegas had one of its worst NFL Sundays on record, meaning the squares mopped up and the books got baked. Those two weeks, we should have considered alternate methods. This is dangerous if not done with caution. We have to know what we do not know. We had to be willing to toss out our weekly strategy for these two weeks and try something else. I would not do this for betting games, but for the SuperContest it is something to consider.
8 – Win the week
You know what you need to hit 70% and be right there to win the SuperContest? 3.5 wins a week. Or just go 3/5 then 4/5 back and forth through the season. Throw in a 2/5 and a 5/5 and you will be just fine too. A strategy few will talk about, because most have no idea…is just win every week. Get over .500. Hit 3 games and look to pick up 4 or 5. If you apply metrics over the course of the season, you will not win this contest. You have to approach each week as its own week, and you want to win at least 3-4 games.
2018 SuperContest Winner
2017 SuperContest Winner
So, learn from us, win this behemoth, look yourself in the mirror and cry out – ‘I am the best!’ Then give us a digital high-five for helping guide you on your SuperContest journey. Follow our GOLCONDA FUND SuperContest picks for the 2019 season at BetKarma.com and track our NFL portfolios so you can be a sharper NFL bettor in 2019. You can also track our weekly managed portfolios progress on Twitter @ZJalpha and @nonrandomalpha and listen to our Sports Trading Desk Podcast, weekly.
