The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books and it was a raucous! We wrapped up this 1st leg in excellent fashion. Brett and I even won a free couple nights at Vegas’ D Hotel and Sports book, to see if our Golconda Fund Circa Millionaire picks might vault us to first place and an MVP prize of over $140,000! After three weeks, we were within a half point of first place, at 12-2-1; positioned perfectly to have a chance to cash and win 1st quarter’s MVP honors.

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Before I get to the final verdict of how we finished the first quarter in Circa Million, let’s recap to see what we can take with us moving forward. Remember the goal is to hit 70%, and so far we are maintaining good position to place in the money and have a viable shot at 1st.

Looking back at week one, the top 5 consensus picks in Circa went 2-2-1 and in SuperContest went 3-2:

By comparison, our picks went 4-0-1 in Circa and 3-2 in SuperContest. I must tell you. Week 1 has always been my favorite betting week of the NFL season. Why? Simply, the lines are way off! The market has no idea what the hell is going on, and even professional bettors seem to forget the handicapping skills that got them this far. Remember week 1 the last two years? Against arguably the worst two teams coming into the season, Ravens were favored by a TD or less against Nathan Peterman’s Bills and the 1st ever tanking NFL team Dolphins. Ravens won those games by a combined 90+ points. Then in week 2 the Dolphins were +18 at home vs. the Patriots, suggesting the Patriots are 12 points better than the Ravens? So clearly, the lines aren’t on point to start the season. This week proved once again to be as predictable as they come. The public loved the big favorites by and large, and the sharps knew those teams were mostly over-hyped.

What we took away from week 1 to implement toward the rest of the season is home field is overrated. And I mean that literally, my related question was even featured by Brent Musburger on VSiN – the second clip below —

Thanks for your question on this #TwitterTuesday @ZJAlpha. Here's the response from the #MyGuysinTheDesert desk! pic.twitter.com/lH32pmsbBz

— VSiN (@VSiNLive) September 24, 2019

 

Besides, static Power Ratings and non-contextualized numbers be damned in the SuperContest and Circa, because to hit 70% and have a legitimate chance at placing first, we think a blind -2 to -4 points for home field is arbitrary and should be weighted based on the situation of the teams and against the whole slate of NFL games. Bigger variables such as coaching strengths, match-ups, and injuries all have a greater accumulative weight for us, and over weighting home field and applying it blindly is for bettors who want to take the work out of nuance and specificity. Everything is contextual. EVERYTHING.

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Fundamentally – we saw Ravens move the hype needle a few thousand percent by ravaging those hapless fish in Miami. We saw teams the market thought would be solid, Steelers, struggle mightily, and teams the market thought would be bad turn it on in the right moment to cover, Cardinals. We waived goodbye to the likes of Nick Foles and Big Ben, and the course for week 2’s overreaction was surely set —

WEEK 2 RECAP

In week 2, the top 5 picks in Circa went 2-2-1 and in SuperContest went 3-2:

By comparison, our picks went 3-2 in Circa and 2-3 in SuperContest.

THE TAKEAWAY

What we pulled away from this week is FADE the SQUARE SHARPS, and they did not fair well. We got caught up in too much Square Sharp thinking this week, rather than lean on our strengths of questioning the Square Sharp logic. From our experience, Square Sharp handicaps tend to ignore key fundamentals and outsider viewpoints in favor of confirmation bias trend-lines and historic data points meant for long term betting sustainability. Not to hit 70% in a one off year, and surely not to win the week – EVERY week – our BET_KARMA Sportsfolio Mantra. Remember, there are 10-16 games each week, the goal is to pick off the lines/games that have the most value and upside, and applying tired metrics across all games, is not a 70% success rate strategy.

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Our best play, that we did not put in SuperContest unfortunately, because it took until Saturday to really see the signal through the noise – Thank you Nate Silver – buy his book here, free plug, was Seattle +4, an outright winner over the Steelers. We did however put that pick in our Circa picks, because we had a little extra time to consider this play across all games and all movements in lines.

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To be fair, Vikings +3 should have covered a few different ways, but our worst pick was the Titans, as we got cute fading a Colts team that we were still high on even after Luck’s retirement, a team the market was still not taking seriously.

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Fundamentally, more injuries to quarterbacks abound as the league lost Brees, Manning finally got swallowed up by hurricane Daniel in Florida, and the Jets found a 3rd stringer off the street to chuck balls into the dirt.

WEEK 3 RECAP

Onto week 3, the sharpest week of the year. This one is going to be difficult to top. The top 5 picks in Circa went 5-0 and SupreContest went 4-1:

THE TAKEAWAY

What we pulled away from this week is LINE VALUE, LINE VALUE, LINE VALUE! Now, to be clear, when I say line value, first and foremost I mean the line compared to our handicapped line. This week, worse than any in memory, had lines EGREGIOUSLY off! 22s instead of 17s, +3s instead of -2s, 6.5s instead of 4s and on and on. On our Sports Trading Desk Podcast, put out every Sunday night to recap the week and get a first look at the next week’s lines, we said this week was the week of the underdog and 1st time QB’s filling in for starters – and boy was it ever!

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Minshew set the stage on Thursday night, Kyle Allen took the reigns from there. Bridgewater, Daniel Jones and Mason Rudolph did enough to carry their teams over bloated lines and most to straight up victories. Our Circa picks went 5-0, our SuperContest went 4-1, and we put ourselves in position to win MVP honors and a 140K if have a good showing week 4 in the Circa Sports Million. And, a little good fortune would of course go a long way too.

WEEK 4 RECAP

And that brings us to week 4 and to an end to the first quarter of the season. So, how did we do? Well, the top five picks went 1-4 in SuperContest and Crica, which is exactly what we predicted might happen to give us a chance at 1st place and make 140K by being 1st Quarter MVP in Circa Million.

We went 3-2 in SuperContest, bringing our winning percentage to 65%. Drum roll please. Circa Million we swung …… and missed, going 2-3, finishing the 1st quarter in the Circa Million 14-5-1 or at 73.7%. We squared up on Cowboys at saints, yuck, and took two bad road teams in division games. Even though we faded most of the consensus picks, we were not quite sharp enough.

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Sadly, we lost out on top place and MVP honors by 2.5 games. The silver lining is the top ten consensus picks in Circa went 3-7 and in SuperContest went 2-8. We started the week agreeing this could be a very nice alpha week, and we were right thematically. However, a couple admittedly public plays and a one-sided handicap fading the Giants, proved to be a death sentence.

THE TAKEAWAY

What we pulled away as a key reminder moving forward, something we did in week 3, but failed to hone in on in week 4 – we must bet numbers, not just teams. Week 3, we bet the Jets for Christ’s sake, and that was ONLY because the number was six points higher than what our projections said it should be. Obviously teams matter, situations, injuries etc. but in the end if the market is off, that’s what you bet. Don’t get lazy. Don’t get cute. And consider all angles of a game, not just a Wednesday handicap that paints a game with a single narrative. I’m looking at you RJ Bell’s Dream Podcast and Houston -4. Insert winky face. Glad we faded that square sharp logic and got Panthers in the SuperContest at +4.5, an outright winner.

All that said, look out for the half way point SuperContest and Circa Million recap and take a look at our pre-season SuperContest preview to learn from our last year 101st place finish and follow Golconda Fund to see how we fair the rest of the way. Listen to our weekly The Sports Trading Desk Podcast on Stitcher, Itunes, Youtube released Sunday nights!

We recap the NFL week and look ahead to the next’s lines. And you can follow our Sportfolio performance, up over 30+% on the year in our NFL Aggressive fund at DFSKarma.com and BetKarma.com.

Follow us on Twitter Zach @GolcondaFund and Brett @nonrandomalpha