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Karma Nation! It’s time for the 3rd Major of the season as we are at Pebble Beach Golf Links, in Pebble Beach, CA. This will be the toughest test for the golfers to date this season. Pebble Beach has hosted the U.S. Open twice and has boasted a 75.15 scoring average. The shorten the fairways from roughly 45 yards wide to 25 yards, and support some of the smallest greens on Tour that will be rolling faster than average at around 12-12.5. The winds can come up and roar on any part of this ocean front track and wreck havoc on the field. This week we have found a lot of great spots to attack at the betting window. Lets get into the picks!
Erik Van Rooyen -110 vs Danny Willett
Van Rooyen’s last 2 PGA starts have resulted in a 20th place last week at the Canadian Open, and a 8th place finish at the PGA Championship. Erik has gained strokes in all 3 PGA starts this year gaining 6.1 last week and 10.1 strokes at the PGA. SG Approach is a key stat I’m looking at this week and he has gained in that department his last 2 events. Looking at the last 24 rounds Erik is 17th in Ball Striking, 11th Off the Tee, and 17th in SG Total. Willett is 61st Around the Green, 89th in Short Game, and 100th in putting over his last 24 rounds. Willet last 4 U.S. Open finishes are: Cut, WD,T37, Cut. Willett has also missed the cut in 5 of his last 9 events.
The Play: Erik Van Rooyen -110 1 unit
Ian Poulter -110 vs Bubba Watson
Bubba Watson comes in to the U.S. Open having missed 4 of the last 5 U.S. Open cuts. Bubba comes off a 63rd place finish in Canada, and a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Last 24 rounds he is 104th in approach and 74th in putting. Poulter is a grinder in these tough events and has made the cut in his last 3 U.S. Opens. This shorter course will maximize the short game, and Poulter is 17th in short game and 14th in putting. Poulter has a +.88 strokes gained stat on difficult courses, and a +.6 SG stat in windy conditions.
The Play: Ian Poulter -110 2 units
Webb Simpson -145 vs Tony Finau
Finau comes in with bad form losing strokes around the green in 3 of his past 4 events, which isn’t good when that will be a key stat here. Finau comes in off a missed cut at the Memorial in which he lost 6.8 strokes total. Finau has only finished better than 60th in 2 of his last 6 events. Tony is 143rd in SG around the green, 83rd in short game, and 66th in T2G. Webb comes in off a 2nd place finish at the Canadian Open and has 4 top 20s in his last 5 events. Webb has gained 6 or more strokes total in his last 5 events. Webb won the U.S. Open at anther course here in California and finished T10 in last years U.S. Open. Simpson is 4th in short game, 8th in putting, and 8th in SG total over his past 24 rounds.
The Play: Webb Simpson -145 2 units
Hideki Matsuyama -140 vs Francesco Molinari
Hideki comes in with great form having better his results in each of his past 5 events. Hideki finished in 6th place at the Memorial. Matsuyama has gained more than 4 SG total in 9 of his last 11 events. He has gained strokes in T2G, APP, ARG in all 10 of his last tracked events! Hideki has gained 1.5 strokes on difficult courses this year. Over the past 24 rounds Hideki ranks in the top 10 in the following SG stats: T2G, BS, APP, ARG, SG Total. Molinari comes into this event in bad shape after a hot start to the season. He has lost strokes in 2 of his last 3 and hasn’t finished higher than 48th. Molinari is 57th ARG, 70th short game, 82nd in putting.
The Play: Hideki Matsuyama -140 1 unit
Xander Schauffele -105 vs Jon Rahm
Justin Thomas -105 vs Jon Rahm
Rahm comes into the U.S. Open in bad form missing his last 2 cuts. He lost strokes in every key category last time out. Rahm has missed the last 2 cuts at the U.S. Open. Jon is 64th in approach and 90th around the green over his last 24 rounds. Xander comes in off a 16th place finish at the Memorial, MC, 14th place finish at the PGA Championship and 2nd at the Masters. Xander is a big game hunter and always seems to come out in big events. In his first two U.S. Opens he has finished T6 and T5. Justin Thomas comes in off a 20th place finish in Canada. He looked to have shaken the rust off after his wrist injury. His putter is the only thing that has held him back lately, as he is 5th ARG, 8th T2G, 15th OTT, and 18th in BS over his past 24 rounds. Thomas has made his last 3 cuts at the U.S. Open and looks to gave his game back.
The Play: Xander Schauffele -105 1 unit
The Play: Justin Thomas -105 1 unit
Bonus Play: Dustin Johnson -170 over Tiger Woods 1 unit
Top 10 Plays
Hideki +300 1 unit
Top 20 Plays
Xander +125 1 unit
Hideki +150 1 unit
Casey +200 1 unit
Longshots:
Justin Thomas 30-1 To Win
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1 To Win
Webb Simpson 45-1 To Win
Justin Thomas 40-1 First Round Leader
Webb Simpson 50-1 First Round Leader
Top Rest of the World Player
Hideki +550 1 unit
To Miss the Cut
Finau +200 1 unit
Fowler +300 1 unit
