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Karma Nation! It’s that time of the week again, time to get into some PGA Bets! We are coming off yet ANOTHER winning week! We collected a small pay day of 1.25 units last week. We lost a couple really close ones preventing a huge week. We still continued the winning streak tho hitting our 9TH STRAIGHT profitable week in a row!!! Our current record stands at 25-11-1 for a profitable 22 units on the year. This weekend we head to the great stadium course at TPC Sawgrass, as we strive for our 10th straight winning week!
Course Preview:
Welcome to the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Sawgrass is a Par 72 course stretching out roughly 7200 yards and supports many iconic holes across its layout. All the top golfers in the world will be coming here to try and win one of the biggest purses of the year. Pete Dye is one of, if not the greatest architects in golf, as he tries to confuse and punish golfers that take on his tracks. He is know as the ‘Michelangelo of Modern Golf’. True to Dye designs Sawgrass doesn’t support any 2 holes being played in the same direction consecutively. Sawgrass is a truly balanced track that doesn’t favor 1 set style of play. This course will present doglegs in both left and right directions and has some of the smallest greens on tour with speeds approaching 13 on the stimpmeter. Hole #12 is now a drive-able 302 yard Par 4 with its green sloping hard to the water. Sawgrass has a challenging final 3 holes that can and most likely will decide a winner. #16 is a short Par 5 that is reachable in 2 shots, but will require the golfer to carry the water hazard to the right and to the left is Oak trees and bunkers. The green will slope to the water that wraps around the back side of it. The next hole is the iconic island green of the Par 3 17th that only measures 137 yards, but will be very tricky with the swirling winds and the big galleries surrounding it. Wind speeds are expected to be higher than normal which will present a challenge of what club to hit into the island. The 18th and final hole gets overlooked at times having to follow the island green, but this Par 4 is a dogleg left that has water guarding the length of the fairway. Driving accuracy will be key here with the lake left and a tree line to the right.
Key Stats:
Ball Striking
SG Approach
Par 5 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
SG Putting
SG ARG
The Bets:
The first bet we will look at this week is Byeong-Hun An vs Tyrrell Hatton. Hatton enters Sawgrass with a -.16 SG total here and missed the cut last year and finished T41 2 years ago. An enters with a positive 4.12 SG total and finished T30 last year. He has gained 6+ strokes T2G in 3 of last 4 events. He also plays well in windy conditions owning a +1.87 SG total. We are backing Byeong-Hun An in this matchup.
An>Hatton -130 1u
Next we look at the Xander Schauffele vs Rickie Fowler matchup. Fowler has been shaky this year with 3 finishes above 36 and coming off a 40th place finish last week and has went MC, 60th, MC in his last 3 trips to Sawgrass. He lost 2.9 SG OTT last week and has been getting saved by his putter lately. Xander finished in 2nd place in his debut here last year. He gained 11 strokes total here last year. He has gained at least 5.9 SG total every event this year and has finished T15 or better in the last 3 events. We are taking Xander in this match up.
Xander>Fowler +110 1u
Our 3rd matchup is Rafa Cabrera-Bello vs Marc Leishman. Cabrera-Bello prefers Bermuda grass and is coming off 5.8 SG putting last week in rout to a 3rd place finish. He gained 10 Strokes total last week. He has made 4 starts this year and has 4 top 25s. Leishman has struggled here the past 3 years losing 5.5 strokes putting last year and 1.1 the year before. He has finished 63,MC,64 in his last 3 starts here. He also performs his worst in really windy conditions. He is -2.8 SG ARG in his last 4 starts total. We are backing Cabrera-Bello here in this matchup.
Cabrera-Bello>Leishman -115 1u
For our last matchup we are looking at the Sergio Garcia vs Hideki Matsuyama matchup. Sergio won this event back in 2008, the last time it was held in May. He also never missed a cut while it was hosted in May. He plays really good in windy conditions at +1.75 SG total. He is coming off of 2 top 10s and has gained 7.6,9.3,3.3,5.6 strokes in his last 4 events. He has also gained 7 or more strokes gained approach his last 2 events. Hideki does not fair too well on Bermuda grass losing .27 SG total. He lost 8.3 strokes last week putting. He is the 5th worst at SG putting in the field over the last 50 rounds. He is also -.35 strokes gained in really windy conditions. We are taking Sergio here.
Sergio>Hideki -115 1u
Xander T20 +150 1u
Poulter T20 +240 1u
Cabrera-Bello T20 +240 1u
Long Shots:
Xander 28-1 to win .1u
Sergio 33-1 to win .1u
Poulter 55-1 to win .1u
Glover 66-1 to win .1u
I will be releasing my Core plays for both Cash and GPP builds as well as Weekend Slate in the Discord Chat. You can sign up by clicking on this link here: http://ChatDFS.com
