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Karma Nation! It’s that time of the week again, time to get into the PGA bets! We are coming off yet another winning week after going 4-2 last week to improve the streak to 7 STRAIGHT winning weeks!! I have been writing this article for the past 4 events going 19-5-1 over that span. I had been releasing my bets via Discord before that. We are looking to build off this momentum and gunning for 8 straight winning weeks as we prepare for the Honda Classic!
Course Preview:
PGA National is a Par 70 that stretches out 7158 yards. This bodes as one of the toughest courses on tour, with water in play on 14 of the 18 holes. This track usually supports high winds that adds to the difficulty and will take driver out of most players hands making it a less than driver course and puts emphasis on longer iron approach. They did some work renovating the greens last year putting TifEagle Bermuda in. This could cause the greens to be more firm and slightly bumpy for the first year after, as greens continue to develop. I would rank ball striking as my #1 stat to look at because with the amount of water that we have here on the course you have to be hitting the ball well or there is a good chance your ball will be getting wet, if you add in possible strong wind gusts that will only magnify miss hits as well. Lucky the wind is projected to be unusually calm this week, with wind speeds under 10 mph. Holes #15-17 represent what is called ‘The Bear Trap’ which is one of the most challenging stretches in golf that will humble even the best of players. #15 is a Par 3 that has a smaller green being protected by water and a back side bunker. This undulating green has some run off areas on it. #16 sets up as a dogleg right that gives golfers the choice of either challenging the water and bunker on the right or laying up short on the left hand side, which will leave a long 220+ shot into the green. #17 is a Par 3 with one of the smaller green sizes on tour, and it leaves roughly 1/4 of the players taking a bogey or even worse. So there is possibility of many changes going on in the leaderboard down this stretch as someone claims victory or sees it slip away.
Key Stats:
Ball Striking
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Putting
Par 4 Scoring
The Bets:
For this weeks first bet I’m looking at Graeme McDowell the Florida Native has shined here in the past. He owns 4 Top 10s and a 14th place finish is his last 8 trips. He prefers to play on Bermuda grass with +.44 SG putting stat. The wind also doesn’t bother him as he grades out high in windy conditions. He is great at avoiding bogeys and his recent form has him with a 69% driving accuracy score. He doesn’t rely on Par 5 scoring to boost his score which is a plus here.
McDowell>Henley +105 1u
Next we look at Sungjae Im who started out hot in his first 4 events this year, but then by his 5th and 6th week he looked to tire down and missed 2 cuts. He lost 3.6 SG putting is his last event which was in tough conditions and on poa greens where he is statistically bad at owning a -.72 SG putting stat. Now he gets a week off to rest up and comes to Florida to play on Bermuda greens which he prefers better having a +.20 SG putting stat. He is good at avoiding bogeys and had a +8.8 SG total rating in his 7th place finish at the Waste Management Open.
Im>Frittelli -120 1u
Emiliano Grillo is another resident of Florida and is on record of saying how much he loves this Event and course. He has performed well in these tough courses in which ball striking is key. He has been putting really bad on the west coast to open the season, but hes coming back to Florida away from the poa greens on to his more friendly Bermuda greens. Grillo is 9/9 in making cuts this season and has played this event better every time here, with 74th place in ’16, 43rd in ’17, and finishing 8th here last year. He has also improved his putting numbers here each time played.
Grillo>Horschel -110 1u
Sergio T10 +160 1u
Kokrak T20 +250 1u
Scott T20 -140 1u
Long Shots:
Grillo 40-1 .20u
Piercy 45-1 .20u
I will be releasing my Core plays for Cash games and GPP builds as well as Showdown/Weekend slates in the Discord Chat. You can sign up the this by clicking the link here http://ChatDFS.com
