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Karma Nation! Another ONE! We are coming off our 2nd straight winning week and are heating back up if you remember our insane start to the year winning the first 10 weeks to open the season! We had a profitable +4.4 units last week as we head into the AT&T Byron Nelson this week at Trinity Forest Golf Club. This is the final tune up before hitting the PGA Championship next week.
Course Preview:
Trinity Forest Golf Club is a Par 71 that extends out 7,380 yards with the possibility of approaching 7,500 yard depending on how they set up the course. Last year this was one of the easiest courses on tour with the field averaging 1.58 strokes under par. There was numerous eagles recorded on the very easy Par 5s here. They have had lots of rain here over the last couple of weeks, and are projected to see at least another inch over Tuesday/Wednesday. As a result this course will be playing super long! This American style links course has almost no trees on it and the fairways are 58 yards wide on average, making it easy to find the fairway. Last year right around 80% of players hit the fairways off the tee.
Key Stats:
SG: Tee to Green
Par 5 scoring
Birdie or better %
SG: Approach
The Bets:
Keith Mitchell -110 vs Marc Leishman
Marc Leishman enters this week on a bit of a skid finishing 58,49,MC in his last 3 events. He has lost strokes in 4 of his last 5 events as well averaging -1.9 SG in his last 5. He is 47th in SG total over his last 24 rounds. Mitchell comes into the Byron Nelson with some momentum finishing in 8th place and coming back to a well liked track. Keith finished 3rd here last year finishing at -19. He gained 12.7 SG total. He gained 5.3 SG approach and 4.8 off the tee. He comes in 2nd in ball striking his last 24 rounds. Keith is also 1st in SG OTT, 4th SG T2G, and 4th in Birdies or better gained. He will be in contention once again here as he is playing his best golf of his career and finds himself on Bermuda greens once again.
The Play: Keith Mitchell -110 1 unit
Keith Mitchell -125 vs Branden Grace
Grace has lost 3.1 SG total over his last 5 events. He hasn’t been able to finish inside the top 50 is his last 4 events and last lost 3+ strokes in 3 of the 4 events. He isn’t as long off the tee with will hurt him here with the wet conditions. This one is pretty easy for me to side with the streaking Mitchell here.
The Play: Keith Mitchell -125 2 units
Scottie Scheffler -125 vs Lucas Bjerregaard
Scottie is a Web.com player that has been dominating there recently. He is from Dallas, Texas and his looking forward to playing this home event in a comfortable setting. He has made all 3 of the cuts in his last 3 PGA tour starts. Scheffler comes in ranking 7th in Ball striking, 4th in T2G, and 3rd in approach. His last PGA event was the Valero Texas Open where he finished in 20th place and gained 5.5 strokes. Bjerregaard missed the cut in the Valero and was -10.1 strokes for the event. He is ranking 84th or higher in 4 of the key stats for this week.
The Play: Scottie Scheffler -125 1 unit
Dylan Frittelli -135 vs Kevin Tway
Kevin Tway is ranking 98th in Ball striking, 62nd off the tee, 62nd in approach, and is 106th in strokes gained total. He arrives here in terrible form missing 6 of his last 7 cuts. He has only gained strokes in 2 of the 7 events. Frittelli comes in ranking inside the top 20 in SG T2G, Ball striking, Off the tee, and 18th in SG total. He has made his last 4 cuts and has 2 top 25 finishes.
The Play: Dylan Frittelli -135 1 unit
Bonus Play: Matt Jones – 135 over Brian Gay 1 unit
To Win Bets:
Keith Mitchell 33-1
Scott Piercy 45-1
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