NFL Team Totals Over/Unders Regular Season Wins
Lines below on Team Totals are from MyBookie
The NFL team totals for the year are a fun way to start off the season. These early plays lead you to a nice payout come January. I like to lock these bets after the 3rd pre-season game, so you can avoid some big injuries and be stuck holding a ticket like the Colts over 10 wins with a back-up QB running the team (Wish I was sitting on the under on them, but I didn’t take them).
NFC
The East should go through two teams for the division, the cowboys or the eagles. No question about the top dogs when looking at this division. Looking at the team totals gets a bit more of a conundrum. Vegas does a good Job setting these lines but there is always teams that over achieve and under achieve do to staying healthy or devastating injuries.
The cowboys return a really good offensive line, which is huge in getting off to a great start in the beginning of the season. As long as the cowboys lock in Ezekiel Elliott with a contract so he plays in beginning of season, they will have a solid QB (Dak Prescott) with a really good wide receiver (Amari Cooper), a hall of fame tight-end (Jason Witten) and some key role players on the offensive side. Good news for Cowboys is a favorable schedule early in the season.
Home against the Giants and Dolphins with a road trip to Washington sandwiched in between. Game 4 at New Orleans will be their first test of the year and by then kinks will be worked out. Worst case the Cowboys start first quarter of season 3-1 and off to the races to beat the 9 game over. In the division the cowboys probably will split with eagles and take 4 wins off the giants and skins. They play the Dophins at home (win), Bills at home (win), Jets on the road (win). This puts us at 8 wins on the season. Can they manage to get a 1 win against the Packers at home, Bills at home, Rams at home to push themselves to 9 wins? And get 1 win on the road at the Lions (thanksgiving day game), Patriots, Saints or Bears to beat the 9 win number? In my opinion, yes. Seems that with the offensive lineman carrying the load the cowboys will go over 9 wins on the season.
No play (-115) – over 9 wins on Cowboys
(Contract disputes can ruin this team and I don’t trust head coach) If they didn’t have these problems I would be on the over.
Eagles
The Eagles line sitting at 10 wins is intriguing. To get to 10 wins in the NFL isn’t an easy thing to do unless you play for the Patriots. Carson Wentz was injured in both of his two seasons as a starter and their backup QB went to Jacksonville. On the upside, Philly returns 4 starting offensive lineman to protect Wentz. The eagles have a really good group of receivers to help out Wentz and a solid running back that will help them grind out some victories.
The Eagles have some out of conference games that are tough wins. They will see the Bears, Patriots, and Seahawks at home. They have to go to the Falcons, Packers, and Vikings. To get past 10 wins they are going to need to beat an improved Lions, Jets and Bills team as well as take 2 games on the road from either the Falcons, Packers, or Vikings and take 1 of 3 at home against either the Patriots, Bears, or Seahawks. This all assumes they split games with the cowboys and they beat up on the Giants and Redskins team and take 2 wins against each.
Looking at their schedule and strength in their offensive line I really think they get to 10 wins on the season. I am going to bet that they can get an extra win to push them over the mark to 11 wins on the season. I am not putting a ton of units on it as I am nervous Wentz will be carted off the field at some point this season.
2 unit play over 10(-150) wins on Eagles
Bears
Over Under 9.5 (+120) wins
Bears return the season with 4 of 5 offensive linemen after winning 12 games last season. They look to go to the playoffs for back to back seasons. The line over/under 9.5 is telling me that Vegas is looking for them will take a step back this season. I think it is the perfect time to get on the Bears. They will get to at least 10 wins this season. They have added a good running back to help ease the load off of Tarik Cohen and their defense will be top 5 in the NFL. This will allow for the offense to get some extra chances to score points. Love the continuity on the offensive line and this will lead to wins the first two weeks of the season. They also have the raiders and giants on their schedule, so should pick up 2 easy wins. Overall I look to the bears to be in the mix come playoff time.
2 unit play on Bears over 9.5 wins (+120)
AFC
Like I spoke about in my article about the betting preview for the NFL, the patriots should be at the top of the AFC east at the end of the season. Hard to bet against Tom Brady at this point and until father time attacks Tom then the Patriots will end the season in the playoffs.
The most intriguing team in the division to me is the Bills. Maybe I am getting the wrong read on these guys, but I really think they will be a tough team to beat this year. I think they are being over looked. Last season they had one of the worst offensive lines and still won 6 games. They have upgraded at offensive linemen with 4 new starters on the line. Now usually I frown upon new linemen because continuity is a huge deal with offensive lines. With limited practices and contact days the more the line plays together the easier the beginning of the season is for blocking. In this case the Bills had to get some new players to sure up the line and They start the season with 3 teams that are lower tier in the NFL at the moment. Josh Allen should improve in year 2 and he has the legs to get him some first downs for the Bills when plays break down. LeSean McCoy is healthy and an after thought at the moment in the league, but in case he gets hurt again they have add several running backs to help with the load.
I think the bills will be 3-1 after 4 games of the season and be on their way to going over the 7 win total for the year.
I am taking the Bills to go over 7 wins.
1 unit play (-130) over 7 wins
Texans over/under 8.5 (-140)
My first thought is why is this line so low, which makes me nervous. Houston is returning 4 of 5 offensive linemen, they have a healthy Deshaun Watson who is on the verge of being a stud QB. They will have to do running back by committee with the injury to Lamar Miller. We will see what happens to the defensive line if they trade Jadeveon Clowney, but the defense over all is a top 10 defense in the league. Tough road game to start the season at the super dome, but I expect them to play well there and even gut out a win. They get to play the raiders, Jaguars game 2 and play a Buccaneers team that will be long out of playoff contention by the time the Texans play them. Add in 2 wins against the colts now that Andrew Luck has left the league. We are at 5 wins without breaking a sweat. So we need 4 wins out of 11 to cover the over for the season. I think they are more than capable of beating the falcons (will be a tough game), broncos, and panthers at home. They will go on the road to London to play the Jaguars in November so they don’t have to play a true away game against the Jags.
5 unit Play on over 8.5 (-140) wins Houston Texans
Also receiving my attention, but I didn’t play them.
Under 8.5 on Ravens, – I just don’t see them being as good this year and I don’t think Lamar make the leap to a solid QB this season. (This isn’t a popular opinion)
Under 6 on Giants – the Giants stink, the sooner they start Daniel Jones the better for the team.
Over 7 on Jets – Like what I saw from Sam Darnold, but the schedule they have is gonna be tough to get to over 7 wins. Darnold is going to be very good this year.
