By Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade on Twitter)
Boy oh boy am I still embellishing that Tax win we had last week in the Jim Dandy Stakes. If you’re not playing the ponies yet, what are you waiting for? We are absolutely crushing winners every Saturday this summer when graded stakes races are available. Today we have a nice card at Saratoga that features three graded stakes races, highlighted by Whitney Stakes. Remember, if you’re a member of DFS Karma and have Discord access, you will get my live up to the minute analysis and best picks in our chat and can ask me questions or what to look for. I seriously suggest that package as you will get picks for all of the races, not just the stakes ones I post about here. Without dragging this on; lets get to the races.
Troy Stakes
First graded stakes race on the card comes at 3:21pm EST when we look at this grade 3 turf race led by World of Trouble. World of Trouble (#1) could win this race by wide open lengths, he’s that good. Figuring out an angle to bet that returns a profit with a heavy favorite winning is the trick. Off the top, I’m throwing out the 6. A couple recent wins, but should be extremely overmatched here. I will focus on Disco Partner (#2), Pure Sensation (#3) and Wet Your Whistle (#5). The value play could be the 5 coming second. While I don’t know if that could happen, it makes sense from strictly a hopeful stance to make money. I personally think Disco Partner is better than Pure Sensation, even though their morning line odds are reversed. I caution you to play this ticket smart, especially if World of Trouble goes off at 3/5 or lower. I want to explain the Double bet you’ll see below since Ive never shared a Double with readers. A double is basically picking the winner in 2 consecutive races. These are a good way to bet if you love a horse in one race and think the next race is a little more open. Since I like the 1 here and can make a case for multiple horses in the next race, I like to take a shot with Doubles.
My Bets:
$25 Win – 1
$1 Trifecta – 1/2,3,5/2,3,4,5 (This payout will only return a profit if 5 or 4 factor into it, so USE CAUTION) $2 Double – Leg A: 1. Leg B: 4,6,7,8,10
Longines Test Stakes
We get our next graded stakes race just 3 races later. This race should be an extremely fast pace, with quick horses running. A favorite of mine to watch, Covfefe (#3), is back after a puzzling third place finish last out. With stiffer competition in this race, I don’t know if this is the race we see the blazing speed of Covfefe, but ill be using on my ticket. I sort of expect Bellafina (#2) to go off as the favorite. I think if speed is holding, Bellafina and Covfefe will duel it out for a win. HOWEVER, if speed isn’t holding I do think there is some value on using Royal Charlotte (#5) to sneak by both of them and win. I do think the best horses are 1,2,3,4 and 5. Serengeti Empress (#1) is puzzling due to the inconsistency of finishes. After winning the Kentucky Oaks in May, that was followed by a 2nd place finish in June. I personally don’t think Serengeti can challenge the 2,3 or 5 and for that reason I’m leaving off my ticket. But when Im not throwing my pesos on NY racing, you can normally find me down in Florida betting at Gulfstream Park. I bring this up because Jeltrin (#7) is listed at 20/1 morning line and is a Florida horse, that has raced 9 times total, and has came 4th or better 8 of those times. I must also mention only 2 of those times were winners. As stated, I do think there are 5 horses better than this horse, but its tough to ignore a horse that is always a long shot and seems
to play spoiler every time.
My Bets:
$2 W/P/S – 5 (as this should be a value horse) $0.10 Superfecta – 2,3,5/2,3,5/1-5/1-5,7 (I left off 1 to win and place, but I guess wouldn’t be surprised if im burned)
Whitney Stakes
Directly following the Test Stakes, we are led into our main event. The Whitney Stakes brings out some real tough competition. I have this race shaped up as a 4 horse race. Thunder Snow (#4), Vino Rosso (#5), McKinzie (#6) and Preservationist (#8). McKinzie and Thunder Snow just raced together in the Met Mile, where McKinzie came 2nd and Thunder Snow 3rd. Vino Rosso normally will press the leaders and could find himself in a nice spot if McKinzie and Thunder Snow tire. Preservationist is a New York horse that’s never left state lines. In 8 starts, hes came top 3 every time. 5 of those were wins. Like Vino Rosso, he will need the 2 up front to get tired in order to win. These are the monsters of the field. Long shots I like are Monongahela (#3) and Yoshida (#7). Yoshida hasn’t been the same horse since a win in 2018. Yoshida is a closer and lately hasn’t been able to be the dominant closer he once was. Monongahela, a midpack stalker, has had better success than Yoshida, but in smaller races. In 24 races, Monogahela has came top 4 in 21 of those. The 3 times he wasn’t in the top 4, he came 5th. I don’t think the 1 or 2 have a shot in this race as they are overmatched. With a gun to my head, the 6 should go off as your favorite. I think the 6 is the best horse in this field, but I will be trying to beat the 6 with my bets.
My Bets:
$0.50 Trifecta Box – 3,4,5,6,8 (This is a $30 bet that we will need 3 or 5 to factor in order to turn a profit) $0.50 Trifecta – 5,8/4,5,6,8/3,4,5,6,8 (This is a ‘beat the favorite’ bet)
$0.10 Superfecta – 5,6,8/4,5,6,8/3,4,5,6,8/3-8
