Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade on Twitter)
A week removed from our day in New Jersey at Monmouth Park for the Haskell, we are heading 224
miles up the road to Saratoga Springs, New York to tackle my home track. The Spa is my all-time
favorite track, with my favorite jockeys usually making this place their home during the summer.
Saratoga’s Saturday card will be highlighted by the Jim Dandy Stakes, which will bring a few familiar
names. If you’re new to horse racing or just recently picked it up since I’ve been invited to DFSKarma,
you’ll start seeing familiar names of horses each week. There are lots of “springboard” races during the
summer months to get horses ready and entered into my favorite event of the year, Breeders Cup day.
Enough with the boring stuff and onto the picks.
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Maiden Special Weight – Race 4
This is normally a race I stay away from on the simple fact that first time starters are unpredictable. The
reason I am including it in this writeup is because I see a morning line value play. Will it hit? Who knows – But at
12/1 morning line odds and seeing this horse as the potential speed play. Complexifier is the 7 horse and the
workouts are suggesting flying speed. It seems that the 1 and 1A pair will go off as the favorite choice and has the
credentials for that right. I will revisit this race in Discord, but as it stands, I would put a couple bucks down on the
7 to win/place. The horses I would target in this race are the 1/1A combo, the 7, the 5, the 4 and the 8. 3 is
interesting in the sense that the Sire has a 20% win rate in the Mud, which it looks like we may have a muddy
track. I’m avoiding exotics because first time starters are tough. I am looking for value plays that avoid the 1, but
if you wanted to play exotics, you could play 1/3,4,5,7,8/3,4,5,6,7,8,9. I caution that because if its chalky, the
payout will not be there.
My Plays: $2 Win/Place – 7, 3
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Race 9
Slated to go off at 5:44pm (est), this grade 1 race brings back a horse that we had 2 months back to win
the Met Mile at Belmont. Mitole (#1) will not bring us great value now that the world has seen the speed this
horse has and has an E (1/1) morning line odds. While Mitole will forever be my pick until proven wrong (on a 7
race win streak currently), value will need to be found elsewhere. His biggest challenger is Imperial Hint (#3) which
has tied Mitole for highest speed figure in this race. 2 and 7 would be my longer shots and the 4 is my mystery
play. You could always try to beat mitole with the 3 or 4 on your ticket!
My Plays: $10 Win – 1
$1.00 Trifecta – 1/2,3,4/2,3,4,7
Bowling Green Stakes – Race 10
On to the turf for this grade 2 stakes race. Huge field of 13 racers, which welcomes back last years winner
of this race, Channel Maker (#5). While I do like Channel Maker to repeat, there are far too many great horses in
this race. Sadlers Joy (#2) cant be overlooked. An interesting horse, Ya Primo (#3), is a grade 1 winner from Chile
with Jose Ortiz on the mount and trained by Chad Brown. I think at 8/1 morning line and being a horse from
overseas that many don’t see, we could have a value pick here. Another Chad Brown trained horse, the 12 Focus
Group, is also a live longshot to hit the board. And the 1, Arklow, has disappointed this year, but remains around
the exotic plays. With so many horses running, and the fact that many of them are stakes winners, you could get a
pricey ticket real quick. The obvious play is having Channel Maker repeat the win and have a cheap ticket just
using him. I want to share optional plays.
My Plays:
$.10 Superfecta – 5/1,2,3,8,12/1,2,3,8,12/1,2,3,6,8,9,10,11,12,13 ($16.00 total)
$2 Place/Show – 1,2,3 ($12 total)
$1 Exacta Box – 1,2,3,5,8,12 ($30 total, but could have value if it isn’t a chalky hit)
Jim Dandy Stakes – Race 11
Drawing only a field of 6 for this prep race to the Travers is disappointing but doesn’t lack a talented
group. You’ll instantly recognize three of the six horses right off the bat. War of Will, Tacitus and Tax all meet
again for a 3 rd time, after running together in the Kentucky Derby and in the Belmont Stakes. I fully expect all the
money to filter to War of Will (#6) and Tacitus (#5). They aren’t bad options either as the most decorated of the
group. Global Campaign (#4) has also won some decent smaller races and should take money and Im not sure if his
foot issues are all done. I have said it 3 times since Ive been writing for DFSKarama, but I love Tax (#2). I think this
may be the race he sneaks by and wins it all. His odds will be high, and as stated, we cant ignore the other
contenders. I think of the 2 long shots, Laughing Fox (#1) can be tossed. I HATE Laughing Fox. This is exactly the
kind of article that comes back to burn me, but Laughing Fox should not hit the board. Mihos (#3) could finish off
an exotic. However I do think the most obvious play is 2,4,5,6 boxed, for an exacta and trifecta. 3 has a slight
possibility of sneaking in for 3 rd or 4 th . In my bets, I will be spending up and hoping the 3 upsets in the Exacta and
Trifecta. It’s a longshot for that to happen, but that’s where we make money if it does happen. If Tax wins, we
should make money no matter what. If Tacitus wins, it gets chalky and the payouts go down significantly. I
absolutely HATE War of Will, but if he runs like he did in the Preakness, he will be tough to beat, but I don’t see
that happening.
Global Campaign should get set the pace, and that leaves Tax, Tacitus and War Of Will to stalk. Mihos will be
behind them, which is why I think if it is timed right, he could factor in exotics, although I think its extremely
generous to put him in 2 nd place. The rail at Saratoga has been terrible due to the rain which should negate the 1,
on top of the 1 being overmatched and will be far behind. I don’t see the 1 catching up. The question is can Global
Campaign go the distance with the lead or will one of the 3 stalkers bring him down. I tend to think someone will
chase him down and Im putting my money on Tax.
My Plays:
$10 Win/Place/Show – 2 (This is my hopeful play and I am spending more on it than you should)
$2 Exacta 2,4,5/2,3,4,5,6
$0.50 Trifecta 2,4,5/2,4,5,6/2,3,4,5,6
