Today is another huge day for horse racing with stakes races littered across America. I already gave you my cheat sheet for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but there are many more races with big name horses getting their prep on for Breeders Cup weekend. I want to zero in on a few races between Belmont and Santa Anita for a few of the important races. I will also be giving out two more races on my twitter (@splitxserenade) for Santa Anita and Churchill Downs, so make sure you follow there!
If you’re not a member of DFS Karma yet, consider joining! I’m available all day long in our Discord chat and give up to the minute changes, answer questions and give advice.
Vosburgh Stakes
Belmont – 2:35pm
An absolutely special treat of a race to start our day out! We get a speedy race for 3-year olds and up on dirt going 6 furlongs. Six horses with 3 stand outs, making it tough to bet on this race for any sort of return. As always, when its too chalky or small of a field, its best to pair these in a sequence bet (double, pick 3, etc). The horse I feel should win this race is the 4, Imperial Hint, but is the morning line favorite. I must assume the horse goes off as the favorite and so, I try to see which horse has the best shot at beating the favorite. This leads me to deciding between the 5, Promises Fulfilled or the 6, Firenze Fire. All 3 of the top horses run a different race with Imperial midpack, Promises Fulfilled pressing the pace and Firenze Fire a true closer. My thoughts are that Promises Fulfilled should press the 1 horse to speed up this race. I like midpack Imperial to take over from eventual leader Promises Fulfilled and will have to fight off closer Firenze Fire that should close at a nice rate.
My Bets:
$10 Win – 4
$1 Trifecta – 4,6/4,5,6/1,2,4,5,6
Beldame Stakes
Belmont Park – 4:43pm
We get another race for Midnight Bisou (#1) to show why she is the top older lady racing. After having one of the all time great duels with Elate last month in the Personal Ensign Stakes on Travers day at Saratoga and winning by a nose (and staying undefeated this year), there is not any doubt in my mind that she puts this field of 6 away rather handily. I don’t know if there will be much value in betting her as her morning line is 2/5, but this is easily a horse you can lay your pennies on and feel comfortable (barring any circumstances she cant control). But she will get familiar foe Wow Cat (#6), which came 4th in their last battle. Newcomer Vexatious (#5) doesn’t seem to have close to the speed needed, but will try anyways.
My Bets:
$100 Win – 1 (Please only bet this if the odds makes sense. If the horse is 1/9, don’t put $100 to win $10)
You may need to get creative using this horse in a pick sequence or double with race before or after.
Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes
Belmont Park – 5:49pm
This is the main event of Belmont today. I gave a detailed breakdown of each horse earlier in the week, which I linked to above. I think this race sits with Preservationist (#4) setting the pace. This is the oldest horse in the field of five, and thus comes the experience. The speed and finding his best foot these days means it’s his race to win or lose. I’m seeing a lot of early bets placed on Vino Rosso (#3), who I tossed from winning. That will be the horse that presses Preservationist and puts him on a quicker pace than either would like. Blinkers are off of Vino Rosso in this race as well. I think, if my analysis of run style holds steady, we should see Tacitus (#1) take command of the lead from both Preservationist and Vino Rosso. The big question is Code of Honor (#2) going to be able to over-take Tacitus in the stretch again? I think IF Tacitus can resist the urge of pressing the pace and sits back, he should have enough in the tank to not get passed by a closing Code of Honor. My estimated order of finish: 1-2-4-3.
My Bets:
$20 Win – 1
$1 Trifecta – 1/2,3,4/2,3,4
$.50 Trifecta (Alternate) – 1,2,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4 (Use this if you don’t like Tacitus like I do, I don’t blame you
Rodeo Drive Stakes
Santa Anita Park – 7:41pm
Going to take on the brutal Santa Anita Park in Arcadia California for our next stakes race. We transfer to turf going one and a quarter miles for 3 year olds and up. Field of 6 and 4 of them are of Irish ties. All low odds, so if you pick the right horse, you should get paid decently for it. For newer players, this race sets up to be sort of a “pickem” as they are all fairly equal. I like Elysea’s World (#3) to do better than the 6/1 morning line will lead you to believe. You must imagine that Beau Recall (#2), Paved (#6) and Excellent Sunset (#5) will all be game enough to try and get a piece of the board.
My Bets:
$2 Exacta – 2/3,5,6
$0.50 Trifecta 2,3,5/2,3,5,6/2,3,4,5,6
Awesome Again Stakes
Santa Anita Park – 8:13pm (NBC Sports)
Are you tired of fields of 6 yet? We have another for the main event at Santa Anita. This will be on dirt and again, three really decent horses and 3 average horses. The silver lining here is that I think McKinzie (#4) gets the win (as the favorite), but we get a small price with Seeking The Soul (#3) to get in second. Round out 3rd place with either Higher Power (#1), Draft Pick (#2) or Mongolian Groom (#5). Isotherm (#6) can be considered a toss. If you want extra insurance, you can add the 1 to the exacta, but it dilutes the payout if it comes chalk chalk. Im banking on a little bit more of a price horse to get second.
My Bets:
$10 Win – 4
$5 Exacta – 4/3
$.50 Trifecta – 4/1,2,3/1,2,3,5
