Saratoga has come and gone, as it does each year. We got a nice look at the baby crop and opinions start to form for which horses look strong as 2 year olds and will ultimately make a run at qualifying for the Kentucky Derby. After Saratoga closes for the summer, we shift our focus on the Pennsylvania Derby at Parx as well as the last of the Breeder Cup qualifiers.
This Saturday brings a stacked card at Parx headlined by the rematch of Maximum Security and War of Will in the Pennsylvania Derby. I will have thoughts and best bets for all races leading up to the main event. Below, I will give my first take on the race and give my analysis.
Make sure to check back on Saturday for my best bets and final thoughts on this race.
1. Math Wizard 8/1 [12: 2-2-3] $260,073
My first thought when I saw Math Wizard get the 1 draw was that it was perfect. This horse is the only true closer in the field and not having to exert himself to get towards the rail saves even more. This horse doesn’t have the accolades that some of the other horses have in here, but if we see a quick pace, this horse can come flying late. I will ponder on this horse until I get a true sense of the weather and how the track plays leading up to the big day. Shouldn’t be a winner, but a true shot under right conditions to factor. Completes Exotics
2. Improbable 3/1 [8: 4-2-0] $829,520
As a 3 year old, Improbable has only one win against a shallow weak field. However, he did come 4th in the Kentucky Derby, over a sloppy track amidst all the drama. I’ve never been extremely high on this Baffert horse. In the derby, this was Bob’s worse horse, but finished best due to post position draw. Now that the Derby is sort of out of sight, I still have a hard time accepting this horse is legitimate. But it’s a Baffert trained horse that will have hall of fame jockey Mike Smith aboard. Baffert has won this race 2 years in a row and if he put his horse here, there must be a reason. Slight Win Possibility
3. Shanghai Superfly 30/1 [8: 0-3-0] $28,330
I’m not sure how this horse made its way to this race. This is the CLASSIC example of lying on your resume to get a job just to find out you have no idea what you’re doing and you’re not qualified to be there. This horse will only be in the way, and (*knocks on wood*) will not factor unless some ungodly circumstances happen. Garbage
4. War of Will 5/1 [12: 4-1-1] $1,515,569
War of Will has always had this aura surrounding him that he would be one of the top 3 year olds. This year, his claim to fame was running in all three of the triple crown races and winning the Preakness. Other than that, he has only disappointed. His last out, he faded hard to Tax (which we had!), Tacitus and Global Campaign. He came 5th in a field of 6! You would think Mark Casse will have this horse ready to go again. But you can expect a fade from me, at least early on. It seems the morning line thinks like I do has has given this horse value at 5/1. Underneath play
5. Spun to Run 8/1 [8: 3-1-3] $360,520
This horse has hit the board 7 out of 8 tries. He has found himself running against the top horses in the Haskell (Grade 1), where he finished 3rd to Maximum Security and Mucho Gusto. His next outing, he goes down to Grade 3 and wins the Smarty Jones. Trying his hand at another Grade 1, I cant see him winning. His odds suggest hes a long shot and Im curious if he can keep up this notion of hitting the board and playing with the big boys. I like him to Finish Exotics
6. Mr Money 4/1 [10: 5-2-0] $1,074,220
Mr Money is a wildcard for me. My first impression was that he wouldn’t be able to hang. But I thought about it for a day now and have sort of waivered a little. Mr Money is on a 4 race win streak, but against nobodies (Grade 3). I still have in the back of my mind that it is a tough ask for this horse to come and battle the top ranked 3 year old in mixed Grade 1 company. But if you analyze his run style, I’ve determined that the pace will decide if Mr. Money will get lucky or not. Mr. Money has always stalked the pace and then would go on to win by open lengths. Trying his hand with the best of the best should give us Mr. Moneys best. I think since hes more so unproven, you have to Use On All Tickets
7. Maximum Security 9/5 [7: 5-1-0] $1,279,400
Max loves to dictate the race. Having an outside starting position should force him to the front where he can (hopefully) slow down this race and force the other horses to follow his rules. This is the class of the field when looking at the races he’s won and the competition he has put away. His only misstep (besides the DQ of the Kentucky Derby that he crossed the wire first in) was a race he wasn’t prepared for, was sick (his trainer ordered bloodwork 2 days prior to the race) and wasn’t expected to win. That makes him nearly undefeated and assuming he gets his way, hes the Horse To Beat
