Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

We had a nice bounce-back performance in Week 8, with all sportfolio strategies posting positive performance. Core returned 1%, Aggressive returned  7.6%, and Conservative returned 1.1%. Performance was propelled by some of our strongest conviction plays, which included Eagles +2 over Bills, Packers -4 over Chiefs, and Giants +7 over the Lions. However, we believe we left some considerable money on the table, given we had compelling arguments for taking Broncos +5 over Colts, Niners -4.5 over Panthers, and Raiders +7 over Texans. The biggest detractors to performance in Week 8 were attributable to the Jets and far too much exposure to the Browns in the +10.5 to +13 range over the Patriots. Some might argue that the Browns *should* have covered the game, and that they even outperformed the Patriots from a box score perspective, but I think that’s a wrong way to diagnosis the outcome of this game. Penalties, turnovers, and bad coaching were the primary reasons the Browns failed to cover, all of which have not proven to be short-term, transitory issues. Instead, they have become regular and predictable occurrences, with no material indication that the Freddie Kitchens has the wherewithal or skill to correct such habitual mistakes. As such, these weakness need to be appropriately priced into a sophisticated handicapper’s 360-degree analysis of the Browns. Does this mean that we will be avoiding exposure to the Browns (and the Jets) in Week 9? As it turns out, unfortunately, the answer is no.

Back to performance, season-to-date, the Core sportfolio, our flagship strategy, is +9.1%, supported by a 25-14-1 record.  Elsewhere, the Aggressive sportfolio, designed for those with a much more leveraged appetite, is +38.5%, and the Conservative sportfolio, designed for those with more limited budgets, is -6.4%. We recognize the Conservative strategy is vastly underperforming the more risk-on strategies. As such, we are going to continue to re-think how to approach allocation strategies for this sportfolio, and are likely to incorporate more of a smart-beta technique, complemented by built-in pregame hedges that cap downside exposure.

Core Strategy (risking 5.7% to win 5%):

As you may know from listening to our weekly podcast, we typically do not assign sportfolio allocations until mid-day Saturday. However, for this first time this season, we saw some Week 9 opening lines on Sunday night that we thought were too +EV to pass up. As such, we posted some of this week’s preliminary trades to the BetKarma premium Discord channel last Sunday night, and some of these spreads are no longer available at these prices.

1. Patriots -3: 1.1% to return 1%
2. Buccaneers +7 : 1.2% to return 1%
3. Browns +1.5: 1.1% to return 1%
4. Jets -3: 1.1% to win 1%
5. Panthers -3: 1.2% to win 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 6.1% to win 5.3%):

1. Patriots -3: 1.1% to return 1%
2. Browns/Panthers ML parlay: 1% to return 1.3%
3. Chiefs +10/Buccaneers +11.5: 1.1% to return 1%
4. Vikings +3/Patriots +4: 1.2% to return 1%
5. Ravens +10.5/Lions +10: 1.3% to return 1%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 16.5% to win 17.6%):

1. Patriots -3: 1.1% to return 1%
2. Patriots -4: 1.1% to return 1%
3. Buccaneers: +7: 1.2% to return 1%
4. Browns +1.5: 1.1% to return 1%
5. Jets -3: 1.1% to win 1%
6. Jets/Bills/Browns ML parlay: 1% to return 1.8%
7. Panthers -3: 1.2% to win 1%
8. Chargers +3.5: 1.1% to return 1%
9. Lions +10/Bills -3: 1.4% to return 1%
10. Chiefs +10/Jaguars +7: 1.2% to return 1%
11. Chargers +10.5/Chiefs +11/Patriots +4: 1% to return 1.2%
12. Patriots -4/Buccaneers +7/Browns +1.5: 0.5% to win 2.5%
13. Vikings/Chiefs over 41, Patriots/Ravens under 50.5: 2.4% to return 2%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. 

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals).