Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Coming off our worse performance of the year, week 7, albeit still staying slightly ahead of our market competitors on the season, we look to get back on track in week 8. Oddly, Zach had a perfect macro view of the week, predicting 5 underdog covers exact. Though that came to fruition, our selection of games was simply not up to par. As coaches say when their teams lay a dud, let’s throw out last week’s tape and get straight to Week 8.

Core Strategy (risking 5.8% to win 5%):

1. Giants +7 1.3% to return 1%
2. Eagles +2 1.1% to return 1%
3. Jets +7 1.2% to return 1%
4. Browns +13 1.1% to win 1%
5. Packers -4 1.1% to win 1%

1- We are back on the Giants this week, after they fell through at home against the Cardinals. Lions have played too many close games, just traded away their safety and struggle getting pressure on opposing QB’s. Though we do think Lions are likely to put up points this week, with another week to get Daniel Jones acclimated with Giant’s playmakers, we think laying 7 points is too many. Yes, Daniel Jones is prone to risky throws and bad decisions, but his upside is he can help this Giants team put points on the board, especially with the help of Golden Tate, Barkley and Engram in the fold another week.

2- Eagles are banged up, but have the same injuries as the week before. Bills are a one dimensional team that struggles against the Eagles most glaring weakness – pass defense. We are not sure this Bills team is truly a contender. Eagles have the better coach and QB, and with another week to prepare their backups, we think it will provide enough consistency to cover and even win straight up.

3- J.E.T.S. Last week was a huge swing and miss, but the Jets were an absolute snowball of a train wreck, starting and ending with their ghost seeing QB. Simply, they cannot play any worse, and the Jags struggled to close out a wildly inferior Bengals team. We think this line is too high for a Jags team that tends to play games close to the vest. If Jets can just limit mistakes, this one should be decided by a field goal.

4- Browns got a needed bye, and the Patriots have had the good fortune of playing some of the worst teams in football. Simply put, this is too many points, and in fact we are not sure this point spread even comes into play. Either the Patriots dominate the game with Browns errors leading the way or Browns are going to be in position to win this straight up. At least, that is our handicap until Baker’s first ill-advised throw into triple coverage.

5- Square-sharp play of the week is taking KC, so we are fading that and going with Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The Chiefs still have offensive line injuries and the Packers have a good enough defense to take control of this game, even if Rodgers can’t find quality receivers to throw to. Last week was the week to be on the Chiefs, and we were. This smells of a week too late on top of not having the MVP of the league. Their backup is capable, but we don’t think the Chiefs even care to win this game, as a loss still has them 1st in their division.

Conservative Strategy (risking 3.2% to win 2.7%):

1. Giants +12.5 / Over 43.5 teaser: 0.6% to win 0.5%
2. Jets +7 0.6% to win 0.5%
3. Packer/Rams money line parlay: 1% to win 0.7%
4. Eagles +8 / Under 46.5 teaser: 0.6% to win 0.5%
5. Browns +13 0.6% to win 0.5%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 11.4% to win 14.6%):

1. Giants +7: 1.3% to return 1%
2. Giants +12.5 / Over 43.5 teaser: 0.6% to win 0.5%
3. Eagles +2: 1.1% to return 1%
4. Eagles +8 / Under 46.5 teaser: 0.6% to win 0.5%
5. Jets +7: 1.2% to return 1%
6. Browns Money Line: 0.5% to win 1.5%
7. Browns +13 / Raiders +7 parlay: 0.5% to win 1.35%
8. Packers Money Line: 2% to win 1%
9. Jets/Eagles Money Line: 0.5% to win 3%
10. 49ers Money Line: 2.1% to win 1%
11. Eagles +3 / Jets +7 / Giants +7: 0.5% to win 2.25%
12. Rams -11 / 49ers -4  Parlay: 0.5% to win 1%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. 

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals).