Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Through the first quarter of the NFL season, all sportfolio strategies returned positive results from both a total and relative return perspective. Season-to-date, Conservative is +0.3%, Core is +9.4%, Aggressive is +41.9%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +23%, with all strategies achieving these returns by taking limited risks – average dollar risk per bet is between 1.1% and 1.2% of bankroll. An approximate $100 bettor would have increased their bankrolls between $2,300 and $4,200 during the first quarter of football if you had been following either our Aggressive or Multi-Sport Total Return strategies. If you have less risk appetite, our Conservative and Core strategies would have boosted the bankrolls of an approximate $100 bettor by $30 and $900, respectively.

We head into Week 5 with slightly more conviction than Week 4, but are confronted with a card that is littered with tight spreads, offering little room for error. Indeed, of the 14 available games, eight are priced between 3 and 4 points. As such, similar to last week, we are going to modestly pull back on risk, and will redeploy more aggressively when juicier opportunities present themselves in future weeks. Unlike last week, when we thought there were several underdogs that could win outright (we bet both Browns and Raiders spreads and MLs), we just aren’t finding that kind of mispriced risk this time around. In fact, many of our strongest bets are on favorites, including Vikings, Panthers, and Cowboys, and to a lesser extent Broncos, Niners, and Bengals, but no positions will dominate across the sportfolios. Instead, we will temper our allocations, with the appreciation that we have lukewarm conviction in many games, as opposed to red-hot conviction in a few games. We may be more aggressive with actively hedging out risk throughout Sunday via live in-game bets, so please follow the Discord chat closely.

We really hate betting on Kirk Cousins on the road, but the strongest mitigating factor this week is the Giants’ porous defense, who will also again be missing their signal caller Alec Ogeltree. We re-watched the tape on Bears/Vikings last week and didn’t think Cousins actually played as poorly as the media has made the public come to believe. The Vikings loss was more a statement on how good the Bears defense is at home and less a statement on the competency of Cousins. We maintain our conviction in never betting Cousins on the road v. a reasonably good team, but we don’t believe we are operating within that paradigm this week. Danny Dimes has thrown six interceptable passes in the last two weeks, including four v. the Redskins, who actually intercepted only two. The Vikings defense is far more potent than the Redskins, and should be able to turnover Daniel Jones multiple times this week. Nonetheless, the spread isn’t super attractive at -5, so won’t overly leverage the position.

The Cowboys at -3 offer an attractive trade in our opinion, since this spread implies the Packers (sans Devante Adams) and Cowboys are essentially evenly matched. Perhaps they are, but we have this game closer to 4 or 5. The Cowboys’ defense has played well all season, including last week, giving up only four FGs to the Saints on the road, and plays even better at home. The Packers’ defense is an enigma, with some believing after three games that it’s elite, shutting down the Bears, Broncos, and Vikings (for a half), but then had their doors blown off by a less than 100% Eagles team in Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers has shown flashes of his former self, but still continues to look uneasy in the pocket and default to passes out of bounds or at the feet of receivers. His lackluster crew of WRs certainly doesn’t help; many of whom can’t get open and when they do, drop passes. Adams is unquestionably Rodgers’ favorite target and most reliable weapon. He will miss this game with a toe injury, meaning Rodgers will have to play a vintage Rodgers game with C- class WRs to score points against one of the league’s better defenses coming off a loss and eager to bounce back. The Packers’ defense is 29th in yards given up per rush attempt (5.0 yards), and behind a stud offensive line, Elliott and Pollard will be licking their chops. Our biggest concern betting this Cowboys this week is the loss of LT Tyron Smith, who has proven to be a critical piece in the Cowboys’ offensive output, scoring only seven, nine, 12 and six points in four games without Smith. Hopefully Kellen Moore’s game plan will more than compensate for this loss.

Core Strategy (risking 6% to return 5%):

1. Cowboys -3 1.2% to return 1%
2. Vikings -5: 1.1% to return 1%
3. Broncos +7: 1.3% to return 1%
4. Panthers -3: 1.1% to return 1%
5. Niners -3: 1.3% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 2.6% to return 3.3%)

1. Chiefs ML, Vikings -5 parlay: 1% to return 1.2%
2. Cowboys -3: 0.6% to return 0.5%
3. Chiefs, Texans, Niners ML parlay: 1% to return 1.6%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 18.9% to return 16%)*:

1. Cowboys -3 2.2% to return 2%
2. Vikings -5: 2.2% to return 2%
3. Broncos +7: 1.3% to return 1%
4. Panthers -3: 1.1% to return 1%
5. Niners -3: 2.6% to return 2%
6. Bengals -3: 1.1% to return 1%
7. Jets +14: 1.1% to return 1%
8. Buccaneers +10, Steelers +10.5, 7 pt teaser: 2% to return 1.4%
9. Chiefs, Vikings ML parlay: 3% to return 2%
10. Chiefs, Texans, Niners ML parlay: 1% to return 1.6%
11. Bears/Raiders under 47.5, Patriots/Redskins under 49.5, 7pt teaser: 1.3% to return 1%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. 

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals). We have started the week with a nice +1% gain already…

Performance Reporting/Full Transparency

As promised, we will provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday – so please stay tuned. Check out NFL Week 4’s performance report here.