Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s NFL managed sportfolios

Through three weeks of the NFL season, all sportfolio strategies have returned strong results from both a total and relative return perspective. Season-to-date, Conservative is +1.8%, Core is +11%, Aggressive is +34.9%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +26.7%, with all strategies achieving these returns by taking limited risks – average dollar risk per bet is between 1.1% and 1.2% of bankroll. An approximate $100 bettor would have increased their bankrolls between $2,600 and $3,500 through 3-4 weeks of football if you had been following either our Aggressive or Multi-Sport Total Return sportfolios. Even if you have limited risk appetite, our Conservative and Core strategies would have boosted the bankrolls of an approximate $100 bettor by $180 and $1,100, respectively.

We head into Week 4 with possibly the least broad conviction of the season. Indeed, we find ourselves struggling to find a solid five bets to allocate to the Core strategy (a mandate of the strategy is pick at least 5 games, although it is within our discretion to under or overweight these selection from the benchmark 1.1% standard trade size). Because we have had such a strong start to the season, we are going to pull back a bit on risk, appreciating the limited sources of value this week. Our strongest bets this week will be on the Redskins (both spread and ML), Raiders, and Browns, with some Chiefs exposure in various forms here and there (plus a few chalky ML combo trades on Rams and Chargers – we understand, it’s not that creative). It’s hard to bet Chiefs in the TD range because their defense is unusually susceptible to backdoor covers (something Matthew Stafford has made a career doing). As such, we will buy points to bring under 6.

We also like the Cowboys on the road by under a FG, with the expectation that Kellen Moore can bring more consistent play to the offense. We think it’s possible the Cowboys have been preparing for the Saints for two weeks (thus the clunky and unprepared start v the Dolphins last week), and the Saints have been on the West Coast for the past two weeks. If the Cowboys are going to be the 2019 version of the 2018 Bears, then they will cover this game. This allocation is also a fade of game-manager Teddy Bridgewater, who we believe will struggle v this top-tier defense – even if he gets the ball to Alvin Kamara most of the time. The biggest weakness in this game is that the Cowboys is a public favorite, and we hate the head coaching matchup, as we believe Jason Garrett is one of the worst coaches in the game (only currently mitigated by the inventiveness of the aforementioned Kellen Moore).

We don’t believe the Raiders are as bad as the market thinks they are, and think they can stay within a TD (or even win SU) v. a banged up Colts team without their best offensive and defensive weapons (TY Hilton and Darius Leonard). Our Browns trade is a play on our long-term macro view of the Browns and Ravens beginning to come to fruition (i.e., that Browns win the division and the Ravens miss the playoffs). Lastly, similar to the Raiders, we believe the market is underpricing the Redskins, but in addition, is overpricing the Giants due to the infatuation with so-called Danny Dimes. Make no mistake, Daniel Jones has looked good, and even better than we expected. He is a demonstrable upgrade to Eli Manning. But the Giants still have several key offensive weapons missing (although we *love* Evan Engram), and the the defense rivals only the Dolphins in inelegance, impotence, and futility. Rookie underdog Scary Terry McLaurin should have one of his better days on the season, and untimely turnovers by the Giants’ rookie QB could propel the Redskins to a cover and SU win.

Core Strategy (risking 5.9% to return 5%):

1. Raiders +7 1.1% to return 1%
2. Browns +7: 1.1% to return 1%
3. Redskins +4: 1.3% to return 1%
4. Cowboys -2.5: 1.1% to return 1%
5. Chiefs -5.5: 1.3% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 4.6% to return 4.5%)

1. Chiefs, Chargers ML parlay: 2.2% to return 1%
2. Redskins +4: 1.3% to return 1%
3. Patriots/Bills under 49.5, Redskins +10, Chiefs +0.5 7pt teaser: 1% to return 1.4%
4. Raiders, Redskins, Browns ML parlay: 0.15% to return 4.5%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 14% to return 24.6%)*:

1. Raiders +7 1.1% to return 1%
2. Browns +7: 1.1% to return 1%
3. Redskins +3: 1.1% to return 1%
4. Cowboys -2.5: 1.1% to return 1%
5. Chiefs -5.5: 1.3% to return 1%
6. Redskins ML: 1% to return 1.5%
7. Chiefs -0.5/Redskins +9 6pt teaser: 1.1% to return 1%
8. Chiefs, Chargers ML parlay: 3.3% win 1.5%
9. Raiders, Redskins, Browns ML parlay: 0.15% to return 4.5%
10. Chiefs, Rams, Chargers, Redskins ML parlay: 1% to win 3.5%
11. Panthers +4.5, Browns +7.5, Skins +3.5, Chargers ML, Chiefs ML, Rams ML, Bears ML parlay: 0.25% to 5%
12. Raiders +14, Skins +10, Chiefs +0.5 7pt teaser: 1% to win 1.4%
13. Chiefs PK, Patriots/Bills under 49, Browns +14, Seahawks/Cards over 40.5, Bears/Vikings over 31 6.5pt teaser: 0.5% to win 1.7%

*please be sure to follow the Discord chat, as the Aggressive strategy will leverage live in-game wagering as well as dynamic hedging opportunities. We are already +1.1% for Week 4.

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @zjalpha and the premium Discord chat for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro and will be active through to the NBA Finals). Similar to the Aggressive sportfolio, we have started the week with a nice +1.1% gain already…

Performance Reporting/Full Transparency

As promised, we will provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday – so please stay tuned. Check out NFL Week 3’s performance report here.