Headlines…

We had modestly negative performance across most sportfolio strategies in Week 4, with the Aggressive strategy outperforming and actually returning positive results. This week saw the broad market get its face ripped off, with the SuperContest top 10 consensus picks going 2-8. Our highest conviction plays (Redskins, Browns, Raiders) were mostly on target, but overweight positions to the Redskins across all sportfolios played an outsized impact on performance. Our overconfidence in Redskins was painfully misplaced, and ruined otherwise compelling positions, including massive return potentials from our Browns/Raiders/Redskins money line parlays, which would have paid out at +3000 odds.  Additional detractors from performance could be attributed to lower conviction satellite allocations to Cowboys and Chiefs. Core, our most important and flagship strategy, went 2-3 and returned -1.5%; Conservative went 1-3 and returned -1.5%; Aggressive went 11-14 but returned +5.2%. Both our Conservative and Core strategies continue to beat their benchmarks by 3.6% and 8.4%, respectively.  Listen to our initial reactions to Week 4 action and a preview of Week 5 spreads here.

Performance was less than ideal this week, but we continue to beat the market. Even in a down week, performance across Conservative and Core was only off a little more than 1%. Note the Aggressive sportfolio’s <50% hit rate on bets this week but positive net performance. We believe this is an excellent example of manager skill in practice – taking attractive risks and capitalizing on +EV opportunities. Average risk taken per bet across all risk-profiles actually continues to drift lower (not higher, as some managers may be inclined to do when performance has been as positive as it has been for us season-to-date). Average risk taken per bet across all risk-profiles is now between 1.1% and 1.2%. Taking responsible risks allows our subscribers to implement our strategies in confidence. Season-to-date, Conservative is +0.3%, Core is +9.4%, Aggressive is +41.9%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +23%.

Competitor Performance

We understand bettors have a lot of options when it comes to selecting an external strategy, and recognize that it takes time, trust, transparency, and strong performance to earn your hard earned dollars. As such, every week, we will also showcase how our flagship NFL Core strategy performed v.s. who we believe to be relevant competitors in the marketplace – this ‘relative return’ performance metric demonstrates the efficacy of our strategy against some of the market’s next best alternatives.

This week, our primary benchmark, the SuperContest Consensus Top 5 picks, went 1-4, winning Saints, and losing Chiefs, Patriots, Vikings, and Cowboys. Usually anytime a pick is above 30% it’s an exceptionally high conviction position (0-1), and the Public Consensus Top 3 overall public picks went 0-3, losing Chiefs, Patriots, and Texans. Right Angle Sports slipped again in Week 4 going 2-3, keeping pace with the BetKarma NFL Core strategy, allowing us to keep the no. 1 spot.

Breakdown of NFL Core, Conservative, and Aggressive Sportfolios

• Browns +7: Our macro thesis coming into the season (Browns win the division; listen to our preseason breakdown of the team here) has shown some life the last few weeks. In addition to betting the Browns over, we also bet the Ravens under, so thought this was an ideal match-up to express two macro views in a single game. The Ravens defense is subpar at best and this team has beaten the Dolphins and Cardinals, while getting manhandled by the Chiefs and Browns. We jumped to 4-0 picking for or against the Ravens on the season ATS in week 4, with an easy winner of Browns +7. This was another egregious line, as we had the true line closer to 3.  This Ravens team, more than most is matchup dependent. Home field had no affect again, as the team with more upside and a stronger left hook dominated start to finish. We increased our allocation to Browns on Sunday morning, as our conviction increased.
• Raiders +7: The Raiders pick started out with the old-fashioned “why is this line so high,” to start the week, and by Sunday morning Zach was posting plays in Discord and on Twitter to take the Raiders money line and even  -3.5 in an alt line on the Raiders at +350, showing his confidence in a desperate Raiders team playing a game manager QB without his best weapon and a banged up defense. These Sunday morning trades posted to Discord really boosted performance for the Aggressive sportfolio, and mitigated much of the damage caused by the Giants’ blowout of the hapless Redskins.
  
• Redskins +3: Terry McLaurin, the Redskins most dynamic offensive weapon, was announced out late Sunday morning, serving as a significant gut punch to the trades we had across all sportfolios on the Redskins. After re-watching the tape, this game was a one-sided handicap, thus a poor play, but half the handicap was correct – the Giants are not good. They are riding the momentum of Daniel Jones and believing in something for once, but the Redskins did everything in their power to not only hand this game over to the Giants, with penalties at every important turn, but then letting overwhelmed rookie QB Dwayne Haskins in the game to put the nail in the coffin. Haskins spelled ultimate doom in just a 2 score game. The proof? Janoris Jenkins, who was all-time torched by Mike Evans last week, won NFC defensive player of the week against the Skins. That’s how poor of a performance from top to bottom the Skins actually had, little to do with the rah rah rallying Giants. Daniel Jones tossed a pair of bad interceptions, and could of had another. Again this is a downgrade on a bad Redskins coach and team, and the Giants are right where we want them.
• Panthers +4.5: After rewatching the tape on the Panthers, this was the right side but for the wrong reasons. The Panthers defense, once again, came to play. Watson struggled avoiding late pressure, just missed some big throws, and is not targeting Deandre Hopkins enough until late in the game when coming from behind. The biggest takeaway that will likely be forgotten is Kyle Allen was strip sacked three times and could have lost another. His decision making still looks on point, and this offense is heavily reliant on Christian McCaffrey, but this variable will likely come into play again soon, turning the tables on the Panthers. The Texans just need a more in-sync Watson right now. He’s better than this game, and he knows it.

• Cowboys -2.5: Cowboys played some of the worst teams in the NFL through their first three weeks, and while we dinged the Ravens for the same thing, we didn’t ding the Cowboys. This lack of consistent application of a handicap, cost us and the sportfolios. That alone should have kept us off this side in a night game at the Saints, Brees or not. Without actually knowing more, we guessed that this Cowboys offense was going to be different, and though it may still be in time, right now – Dak is who we thought he is and this offensive line is not the running stalwart it has been in the past – at least not against solid competition.  These type games hurt, because we are still bearish on Saints on the season, especially with a game manager as a QB. Cowboys stout defense gave us a fighter’s chance, but the opposite was true on the other side of the ball.
• Bears -1: One of our sharper trades of the week, although wavered in conviction due to the ineffective Trubisky. To our handicap’s point, it wasn’t going to matter who was QB for the Bears, because Cousins on the road vs a great defense is a bettor’s wet dream – all day – every day (although we are looking closely at Vikings on the road v Giants in Week 5 – hmm). Cousins is at his best when his team is in front and he can manage an occasional 3rd and 4. Anything beyond that on the road is playing with a lighted piece of dynamite in a hot potato game. And you’re playing by yourself. The fact that the Bears opened -3.5 at home vs the Packers week 1 and only -2 at home against Cousins, shows you the market was overjoyed with the Vikings dominance over the Raiders the week prior.
• Underperformance this week can be directly attributable to the Redskins misfire. If the Redskins cover (or even play competitively and stay within 10 points), performance would have been wildly positive, and in fact may have been the best week of the season. However, this is also a statement on the lack of diversification across the sportfolios, and was a complete oversight on our behalf. The outcome of a single game should not dramatically swing performance, and we expect to do a much more thorough job of correcting for this vulnerability in the future.
• For a standard $100 bettor, Core suffered $167 in losses, Conservative suffered $147 in losses, and Aggressive returned $700 in gains.

Closing thoughts…

Please reach out to learn more about the overall approach to the NFL sportfolio strategies, and remember to follow our ultra aggressive Multi-Sport Total Return Fund strategy exclusively on Twitter by following Brett Matthew and Zach James at @nonrandomalpha and @golcondafund for free pregame and in-game bets throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro over the course of a calendar year). Multi-Sport Total Return Fund suffered $360 in losses in Week 4.