THE WEEKLY WRAP UP

Short and sweet this week —

The last two weeks have been our most trying to date, as personal excuses aside, we failed to DOMINATE two high potential sharp weeks. That said, we did stay above water and beat the market by remaining above average overall, going 6-4 in Circa and SuperContest, beating Supercontest’s 5-5 top consensus plays and tying Circa’s at 6-4. Core, our most important and flagship strategy, went an impressive 4-1 in week 5 and our worst performance to date 2-3 in week 6. This brings us to 21-9 on the season through six weeks, a 70% win rate and an 11% return.

Conservative has taken the biggest hit the last two weeks, as it has dropped 4.6% due to going 0-5. Moving forward, we are going to continue to keep risk down but aim to amp diversification up in Conservative. Admittedly, we have put too much negative EV (expected value) in Conservative by leaning into Money Line Parlays, Teasers and bets that grade to have less than a 50% chance of winning outright. Those type plays should only be in our Aggressive Sportfolio from hence forth.

The Aggressive Sportfolio is down from week 4, sitting at 32.8% return on the year. Multi-Sport Aggressive is up a smidge to 25.2% for the year. The most impressive insight to take away the last two weeks is mitigating risk in weeks we were not confident in. Typically the bye weeks in the NFL are the toughest to handicap because there are fewer games to pick off bad lines and get easier alpha. That said, we think there is market correction looming — THIS WEEK, where favorites may actually outperform underdogs for a change. Why are we so sure? The lines are tighter in week 7 than any week this season, and in our opinion, the market is overweighting home field in most spots, while underweighting matchups and situations in others. We’ve already made Aggressive Sportfolio plays on the Chiefs Money Line 1.7% to win 1% and Chiefs -3 1.1% to win 1% for Thursday night – a little added bonus for reading and following along.

WHAT TO LOOK FOR MOVING FORWARD:

If looking for a deeper dive into our thought process, analysis and rewind of games, check our weekly Podcast — SPORTS TRADING DESK on Bet Karma.

Can find it on Stitcher or Itunes, released every Sunday night into Monday morning. You can also check out THE NFL REALITY CHECK Article, which is a 32 team quick deep dive on what we’ve seen so far from each team through week 5, and what spots to look for to trade them moving forward.

And the latest news, keep an eye out for our CANDID breakdowns of key games we re-watch every play of – shared in Discord on a rolling basis in the NFL-Betting Channel and the BetKarma-Premium channel.

Let’s grind Karma Nation.