Brett Matthew and Zach James, Lead strategists for BetKarma’s inaugural NFL model sportfolios

The most important Sunday in September has finally arrived – Week 1 of the 2019 NFL regular season. As usual, there is an increased sense of uncertainty the first 1-3 weeks of the season, as we begin to get a feel for new coaches, new schemes, and how new players adjust to (or not) and perform in those new schemes. As such, we will keep it relatively mild this week, recognizing there’s still a lot to learn and conviction is limited.

Core Strategy (risking 5.9% to return 5%):

1. Titans +6: risk 1.2% to return 1%
2. Redskins +10: risk 1.1% to return 1%
3. Colts +7: risk 1.2% to return 1%
4. Vikings -3: risk 1.2% to return 1%
5. Bills+3: risk 1.2% to return 1%

Conservative Strategy (risking 3.3% to return 3.2%):

1. Colts +7: risk 1.2% to return 1%
2. 6 point teaser, under Rams/Panthers 55.5 and Pats/Steelers 55: risk 1.1% to return 1%
3. Home team money line parlay, Seahawks/Eagles/Vikings: risk 1% to return 1.2%

Aggressive Strategy (risking 10.6% to return 9%)*:

1. Titans +6: risk 1.2% to return 1%
2. Colts +7: risk 1.2% to return 1%
3. Vikings -3: risk 1.2% to return 1%
4. Bills+3: risk 1.2% to return 1%
5. Bengals +10: risk 1.2% to return 1%
6. Patriots -5: risk 1.1% to return 1%
7. Under Rams/Panthers 24.5 in the 1H: risk 1.1% to return 1%
8. Under Rams/Panthers 51: risk 1.2% to return 1%
9. 10 point teaser, Chiefs +7, Pats/Steelers under 59, Rams/Panthers under 59.5: risk 1.2% to return 1%

Multi-Sport Total Return Fund Strategy

Please follow Brett Matthew and Zach James on Twitter at @nonrandomalpha and @zjalpha for real-time trades throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro).

Performance Reporting

As promised, we will provide detailed post-hoc total and relative performance commentary every Wednesday – so please stay tuned.

Learn more about the overall approach to the NFL model sportfolio strategies here.