(It is early and I will update my predictions once the preseason injuries happen)
AFC
East
The AFC East has been owned by one team for over a decade, and with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady still the face of the Patriots, I am not sure much will change for this conference. Seems like the Patriots are in the Super Bowl every year. The Pats lose Gronk on offense but he has missed a bunch of games due to injury over the past 3 seasons and Tom Brady is use to the offense without him on the field. Tom will just dial up more plays for Julian Edelman and whatever running back is put in the game. The NFL is a quarterback driven league, and until Tom Brady shows he is finally aging, I can’t bet against him finishing first in the AFC East.
The division has 2 second year QB’s looking to make good strides forward, and a seasoned veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick, that seems to play lights out during the month of September and then fade into the darkness. I like Josh Allen’s chances of taking a step forward being a solid for the Bills. I think the Bills come out of the herd and give the Pats a run for 1st place this season with a second year QB and a second year coach. They have a solid receiver core and a respectable defense. Josh Allen’s big arm will help them in windy and cold temperatures at the end of the season. Bills should have a solid 9-7 record and get into the playoffs.
The Jets have a QB destined to be great, and he showed some gut last year playing well despite having a lame duck head coach and some injuries. A new head coach should help Sam Darnold grow in his second year, but learning a new offense isn’t easy. I still think he struggles a bit. He has a couple shore handed receivers to help out, but their top tight end, Chris Herndon, is suspend for some games. The new coaches will need to revamp the 29th ranked defense. One thing that can help a young QB and a defense is a running game and they picked up all-pro Le’Veon Bell in the off-season. Bell should have some fresh legs after sitting out 2018 season as the Steelers franchise tag player. Bell looked out of shape in some photos, so I am not completely sold he has the work ethic to make a huge splash this year. I think the jets get to 7 wins and take 3rd in AFC East.
I have Miami finishing last in the conference. I just don’t see them having an elite year, and I love Fitzmagic, but they are playing a tough schedule and too many new parts to get on the same page. Last year they were 27th for points against and 26th points scored which isn’t a great combination for success.
Pats 10-6 (-500 to win AFC East)
Bills 9-7 (+1000)
Jets 7-9 (+600)
Dolphins 5-11 (+2000)
North
Looking at the AFC North. One team lost a headache for a wide receiver, the Steelers, and one team gained a headache for a wide receiver, the Browns. Cincy stunk last year and the Ravens made the playoffs.
This division has been led by the Steelers or Ravens battling out for the playoffs. The Browns are an after-thought and Cincy has a spark once every couple years. The Browns may change the NFC North landscape for the next 5 years. Baker Mayfield with all his swag and brashness had the Browns playing some meaningful football late in the season last year. The Browns were crucified for taking Baker over some other QBs in the draft, but did he prove most of his doubters wrong last year.
The real question is, can Baker handle an eccentric super personality like Odell Beckham Jr? If he can, then he has himself quite an arsenal of talent surrounding him which should lead to a playoff bid. The defense got a quality rusher in Vernon allowing the backs to cover receivers for less time. I like the Browns to improve from 21st defensively this year and be a top 10 offense to become the King of the North.
The Steelers are in an interesting spot. They lost two dynamic offensive players, Brown and Bell, but they always seem to find quality players to replace superstars. They still have perennial all-pro Ben Roethlisberger with Ju Ju Smith-Schuster catching balls. Will they be able to overcome all of the drama from last season? I think they play well enough to be in the mix to make playoffs and battle Cleveland for the top spot.
Baltimore got much younger on defense dropping a Ravens staple in Suggs. Last season 2nd in points against with a decent offense at 9th in points for. Can Lamar lead them to the playoffs again this year? NO CHANCE. He is one hit away from RG3 being the starter for the year. This team will be an interesting team to watch for the year because of Lamar Jackson. Did he put the time in the off-season to improve enough to make throws and not just be a running quarterback? If there is one thing that is known in the NFL, young running QBs can survive for a while, but eventually a big strong linebacker will get a devastating hit. RG3, Watson, Vick, Steve Young and many more played great scrambling and rushing for yards. All have seen bad injuries and some have never made it back to promising careers. I know their defense will be ready to go although this year I don’t think they can drag the offense to the playoffs.
Cincy didn’t have a good defense last year (30th) or offense (26th). I have been waiting to see if Dalton would make the jump to an elite QB in his career and it doesn’t look like it will happen. Hopefully AJ Green and Tyler Eifert will be healthy for the season to help Dalton improve from last season. It just seems that Dalton doesn’t have the arm-strength to deal with cold and windy conditions. I see them finishing at the bottom of the division again this year.
Browns 10-6 (+125 to win AFC North)
Steelers 9-7 (+190)
Ravens 8-8 (+260)
Cincy 6-10 (+1800)
South
I think this conference comes down to the Colts and Houston. The colts new coaching staff and front office last year did what they needed to do in getting offensive linemen to keep Andrew Luck upright. When that dude has time he can sling the ball. The defense played very well at 10th in points against. The team played very solid football last year and should continue to roll this season. Can Deshaun Watson and the Houston defense beat the titans to lead division? Yes they can, but I don’t think it happens this season. Houston’s defense (4th in points against) still has JJ Watt and Clowney with a solid backend to go with it though Clowney is on a franchise tag and he has a history of taking plays off, so I expect him to not be as productive to protect himself from injury. JJ Watt has a long history of injury and I would expect it to continue due to his age. Realistically, either team could win the division but I am taking the team with the best quarterback in the division and that is Andrew Luck.
Jacksonville looks to improve their offense this year. The team still has a respectable defense (4th in points against), but man did their offense stink last year. Nick Foles is here now and looking to prove he can play at a high level with a team other than Philly. With Foles at the helm Leonard Fournette should have a better year because teams can’t load up the on every down to stop him from running. The offense will make drastic improvements and will give them an opportunity to play meaningful football in December but I think they fall short of the playoffs.
Tennessee is a tough team to figure out because of the injuries players sustained last season. Will Marcus Mariota have full feeling in his hand this year? Can Delanie Walker recover from his leg injury? These two players really complement each other and Mariota is a much better QB when Walker is in the line-up. The defense is solid (3rd in points against) and shouldn’t change. Vrable is a good coach and will have learned from his rookie coaching season. I expect the defense to play very well and the offense to do well and be competitive in every game.
This conference is going to be a dogfight with all of them competing for a chance at the playoffs.
Colts 10-6 (+120 to win AFC South)
Houston 9-7 (+220)
Tenn 8-8 (+650)
Jacksonville 7-9 (+375)
West
Kansas City should explode out of the gate and be undefeated through 4 games and I don’t see them looking in the rear-view mirror at all this season. Patrick Mahomes is looking to continue his crazy amount of success from the prior season. Though it looks like he will have to do it with some new talent. Andy Reid will have the offense rolling early and often this season. The defense needs to improve a bit from the 24th ranking in points against to help out the offense.
Philip Rivers is one heck of a quarterback and his success could rely on his top running back getting a new contract. If Melvin Gordon holds out it will make it tougher on Philip Rivers to be as great as last season. He will still have Keenan Allen to catch passes and he needs him healthy to lead them back to the playoffs this season. The chargers will be in the top of the AFC this season.
Denver has a lot of new parts and we won’t know how they will fit until the season. Joe Flacco is their new qb after a failed attempt with Case Keenum. Joe has a huge arm still but not sure he has the ability to lead a team to the playoffs anymore. New receivers, new offensive system will lead to Denver struggling in the beginning of the season and missing the playoffs again this year.
Oakland was a mess last year offense (28th in points for) and defense (32nd in points against). Now I loved Derek Carr a few years ago, but he never improved after he had the broken leg a couple seasons ago. The offense has Antonio Brown and Doug Martin to go with Carr. Can Antonio keep his cool if the team struggles in the beginning of the season? Probably not, and it could be another long season for the Oakland Raiders.
Kansas City 12-4 (-160 to win AFC West)
Chargers 10-6 (+190)
Denver 6-10 (+1200)
Oakland 4-12 (+1200)
NFC
East
Open and Honest. I am a born and raised Giants fan, but I will be unbiased about the NFC East which most of the teams I hate to death and can’t stand.
Good news is like the last couple years, I won’t have to bet on the Giants and be disappointed, I will be able to bet against them a bunch and win some money. Could be all 16 weeks!!! They have an aging quarterback that I think will be pulled for the rookie at some point in the season. They no longer have a stud wide receiver that can make amazing catches. They do have one of the top running backs in the game, but teams will load the box and make Eli beat them, and I just don’t see him doing that game after game. They will win a couple games and give a few teams trouble.
Lets look at the rest of the division quarterbacks. Wentz has been hurt and missed significant time the last two seasons, the skins have Colt McCoy and Case Keenum, and Dallas have the most stable QB in the division. Dak Prescott is looking to extend his contract and I think Jerry Jones will do it because he is a solid player. Nothing spectacular but he won’t have to be spectacular with a really solid defense. He has a top running back and a top wide receiver with a decent but aging 3rd down receiver in Randall Cobb. That is enough to take Dallas to the top of the division, although I don’t think they run away with it. I see another 10 win season for them.
The Eagles have the potential to make the playoffs and be a force this season and it depends on Wentz making it the full season. They no longer have Nick Foles to turn to when Wentz goes down with an injury. They have top notch receiving core and added Jordan Howard to the backfield. If Wentz stays healthy the eagles will win 9 to 10 games. I have them finishing second in the NFC east.
The skins have a lot to figure out this season. Jay Gruden needs to have a good year or he may be gone the following season. None of the QBs on the roster are top 15 in the league and I don’t think the team is quality enough to finish above .500 for the year. 6 wins will be an achievement.
Cowboys 10-6 (+130 to win NFC East)
Eagles 9-7 (+100)
Redskins 6-10 (+900)
Giants 5-11 (+1100)
North
The NFC North was great to watch last year and I don’t expect anything different this year. We will see if a new coach will help the eccentric player that is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers seems to be losing his magic in the NFL not making the playoffs last year and taking a lot of heat for not respecting his coach. Bad losses caused a ton of locker room problems which led to the dismissal of the head coach. Green Bay will leap frog the Vikings to finish second in the division
Chicago will have a tougher schedule this season because of their success last year. The good news is they have the top defense in the league and that can keep you in any game. Mitch Trubisky has his electric back Cohen with a host of decent receivers hungry to make the Super Bowl. They cruised to a 12 win season and fell early in the playoffs putting them on the couch earlier than they expected. They win the division again this year and I think make the conference finals.
The Vikings are going to take a step back in the division this season, Kirk Cousins is a middle of the road QB and doesn’t beat too many teams with winning records. The Packers and the Lions are going to be better this season, so splitting games with them will most likely happen. Two losses to Chicago, then having to go to Seattle, Dallas, Kansas City and San Diego to play really good teams will give them 8 losses on the season and that doesn’t include playing Atlanta and Eagles at home. It is going to be a tough season for the Vikings.
Detroit is a big wild card in the division. Matt Stafford has shown brilliance in his career but also has shown the ability to make boneheaded interceptions that cost the team wins. I think the coaching staff will do a better job in the second year to produce a few more wins. They will get to 7 wins on the season, maybe win 8 games and that won’t be enough to make the playoffs.
Chicago 11-5 (+170 to win NFC North)
Green Bay 10-6 (+190)
Detroit 7-9 (+1200)
Vikings 5-11 (+210)
South
New Orleans ran away with the division last year and I expect them to do the same thing this season. They have a top QB, really good running back, really good wide receivers, and a good tight end so the offense will be rolling from Week 1. As long as the defense (14th points against) performs similar to last season, they will win 11 games. The rest of the division is up for grabs.
The Falcons played in a Super Bowl a couple years ago and should have won it, but poor coaching led to one of the best comebacks in sports. Last season was not their best year, but usually when the Falcons have a rough year it turns around the next year. Matt Ryan is a top 15 QB in the league and they have one of the top receivers in the league which should have them above .500 this season.
Carolina is tough to figure out because we don’t know the health of Cam Newton. Last season it seemed that his shoulder wouldn’t allow him to make the throws he was making with ease. If he is fixed up and playing like a top QB, the Panthers will win more games than I am predicting. Christian McCaffrey will have a monster year, but he alone can’t drag the Panthers to the playoffs.
Tampa Bay is headed back to the days of old that had them lose 16 games in a season. Hopefully they win a couple games this year. I see them losing 8 games to better teams with them at Rams, Seattle, Saints, Titans, Jags, Lions, Falcons, and Panthers. Then they have to face the Texans, Colts and an improved Niners team at home. The season outlook is bleak with them maxing out at 6 wins.
Saints 12-4 (-180 to win NFC South)
Falcons 10-6 (+375)
Panthers 7-9 (+550)
Tampa 5-11 (+850)
West
Last and definitely not the least: Russell Wilson just landed his huge payday, but will he still be a top QB? Can Goff get back to the regular season form he had last season? Will Jimmy Garoppollo come back from an ACL tear to perform at a high level?
Big questions to be answered during the season. The Cardinals seemed to be rebuilding with a new QB after a new QB last season didn’t pan out. Maybe Kyler Murray is the answer for the Cards and he will bring them out of the bottom of the league. But I don’t think it will be this season. I will be watch intently to see if Kyler Murray’s game translates to the NFL and how he will react to getting hit by bigger, stronger and faster plays. Will be another long season for the cards.
The Rams are the class of the division and they will be again this season. Hopefully losing in the super bowl will not cause a slump this year. Their young coach seems to inspire and bring a fresh new energy to guys playing a tough sport. It seems like the team is having fun and ready to roll back to a super bowl again this year. I expect them to challenge the Saints and bears for the NFC title.
Seattle and the Niners will battle it out for second place in the division with the Seahawks having the edge. Seattle has a top rated defense (11th) and a top rated offense (6th), plus they still have Wilson at QB. Watching them last season and gambling on them would have given you heart burn every game because they seem to play a one possession game week in and week out. Seattle should finish number two in the division and have a chance to extend their season in the playoffs.
Hopefully Jimmy G will be back and healthy this year. He was fun to watch when he was healthy early in the year last season and the last 6 games the year before last. The problem is they have a tough start to the year that could spiral out of control quickly. At the Bucs and Bengals, which hopefully they pick up wins, then against the Steelers, Browns, Rams, at Skins and Panthers. I don’t see them beating the Steelers, Browns or Rams. I have them getting around 7 wins on the season but could improve if Jimmy G shows the game he had prior to wrecking his knee.
LA Rams 11-5 (-200 to win NFC West)
Seattle 10-6 (+300)
San Francisco 7-9 (+550)
Arizona 3-13 (+2500)
Chris Hastings
Follow me on Twitter! @mush_master
