Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade on Twitter)
Today will be a great day. I love this track and card so much that I trekked 9 hours one way to be here for it. Travers Day at Saratoga is billed as the “Mid-Summer Derby” and always has a full day of loaded cards. By this time, if you’ve been reading along each article I post, most of these names today will not shock you. We’ve won with many of these names and lost some heartbreakers, unfortunately. When my “home” track has a day of stakes racing, I like to also give my thoughts on the undercard. Last time I did this at a New York track, we had 7 out of 8 winners for the Belmont Stakes day. Hopefully we can pull off a repeat performance, as we have 6 stakes races on the undercard. I will preface this with the fact that the entire Saratoga meet thus far, besides bad weather, has been the dead rail. Its tough to find a winner that comes from the inside post. While it has happened (See: Dunbar Road in the Alabama), the horses on the rail end up slow and stuck. Good jockeys will angle their horse out early or sit back and get off the rail. So, this has been a tricky meet to handicap thus far. My travers content will be provided in the discord for members, but you can have a sneak peak at the horses I like in the best bet section.
Forego Stakes (1:48 PM ETD)
Stakes racing gets underway with this 6-horse sprint, led by the extremely fast Mitole (#3). Gonna be tough to beat Mitole, even after the misstep last race. I don’t think the other competitors can beat him. Mitole does find himself going against common foes in Firenze Fire (#6) and Promises Fulfilled (#1). Of those two, Promises Fulfilled has the strongest case to upset, but hasn’t been able to best him yet. Also, drawing the #1, means Promises Fulfilled will need to get out of the gate early and have an early lead to get off the rail. I think Mitole will run up as well and it will be an endurance test in this sprint. Not that I think either will die out, but if you want a value play, Bon Raison (#5) would be my longshot closer if Mitole and Promises Fulfilled wear each other down.
Ballerina Stakes (2:23pm ETD)
Next up is another 7 furlong sprint, but this time we’ll see 7 horses. Separationofpowers (#4) is a strong horse for Chad Brown. I would have leaned that way easily if it weren’t for Mia Mischief (#5) entering this competition, who completely dismantled Covfefe last time out. Could be a toss up between these two. Come Dancing (#2) could spring a mild upset if the door is left open too long and odds go off where I think they will. H. Allen Jerkins Stakes (2:59pm EDT) The third straight seven-furlong sprint stakes race. Ill take it, as I love watching these types of races. With 9 horses in this field, Im excited to see what Shancelot (#1) does here. Shancelot is a perfect 3 for 3 lifetime and won a month ago by a whopping 12 lengths and huge speed figures. With only 3 races under his belt, its tough to form a huge opinion, but I feel that you could single this horse to win. However, I don’t like Rowayton’s (#8) speed figures. Seems too slow for a race like this. I also don’t trust Hog Creek Hustle (#9), as the lone horse that beat me on Belmont day. I tend to think that was a one off. I do like horses such as Call Paul (#2), Borracho (#4) and Mind Control (#6) AT 15/1 ML!! Playing this race, I think you have to use the undefeated horse in Shancelot and pair it in a pick sequence or Double.
Ballston Spa (3:35pm)
Moving to the turf and going just over a Mile, this race could go any which way. The talent pool in this race is pretty high, making it tougher to find a clear cut favorite. Im drawn to Mascha (#9) because ive seen this horse multiple times run in France and it has my favorite jockey aboard. Only a month ago was Mascha’s first start on American soil, at Saratoga, and came away with a win. Going up against tougher competition could be tricky. Secret Message (#3) will probably go off as the favorite, but isn’t a lock here. This horse has always stuttered when going up to grade one competition, including a miserable 4th in the Diana last month at Saratoga. But on a good day, Secret Message can probably hang with the group as one of the quicker horses in the field. Honorable mentions in this race include Fifty Five (#2) and Starship Jubilee (#8).
Personal Ensign Stakes (4:12pm EDT)
The most important stat of this race is going to come in the distance. Six horses running on dirt. This group all knows each other really well, as they are normally paired together. These older dirt females have usually been seen looking up at Midnight Bisou (#1). She’s been on a 5-race winning streak, making her perfect for 2019. I think Elate (#4) is her strongest competition. Being put on the rail, Midnight Bisou is going to have to make a move to get away from the dead zone or else she will be found too far back. Last November, Wow Cat (#5) was impressive and came second, with Midnight Bisou coming 3rd. My ONLY knock to Midnight Bisou is that she has never won a race that’s gone a Mile-And-An-Eighth. Elate seems to do better with longer distance, but has never beat MB. I do feel that this is a 2-horse race, but being a bigger fan of Midnight Bisou, I will lay my money with her.
Sword Dancer Stakes (4:49pm EDT)
Going a mile-and-a-half on turf, I think this is the most wide open race of them all. Its easy to look at the ML favorite, Annals of Time (#7) and think this horse has what it takes to win. I tend to look at the closest competitors and think they are closer than the public might think. Channel Maker (#8), Channel Cat (#4), Ya Primo (#6) and Sadler’s Joy (#9) are all SO close. This is one where you will spend a lot to hopefully win a lot, or you can attempt to pair it in a Pick sequence and use a bunch of these horses to win. I am not overly confident in this race unless your ticket is large.
Best Bets:
Race 5: $20 Win – #5 Race 5: $1 Pick 3 – 3 / 2,4,5 / 1
Race 6: $0.20 Empire 6 – 2,4,5 / 1 / 2,3,8,9 / 1,4 / 4,6,7,8,9 / 6,7,9,12
