The all-important “dress rehearsal” Week 3 of the preseason is in the books, bringing with it, for all practical purposes, the conclusion of the NFL preseason (most, if not all, starters will be held out in Week 4). So what did we see and what are some of the most important takeaways for betting preparation purposes?
Well, most teams escaped without any truly devastating, season-redefining injuries (although, as we all know by now, it turns out the Colts were not immune from devastating, season-redefining retirements). The Texans lost Lamar Miller, the Chargers lost Pro Bowl safety Derwin James, and it looks like the Patriots may lose their starting center David Andrews, and Zeke Elliott, Melvin Gordon, and Trent Williams continue their holdouts. From a futures betting perspective, no injuries have materially moved prices – with the semi-major moves coming to the juice on the win total overs for the Texans and Jaguars after the Andrew Luck retirement news.
Approximately $2.4M was cumulatively bet across the slate in Week 3 (modestly beating the $2.3M bet in Week 2), resulting in the largest handle of the preseason. The smallest handle went to the Broncos/Rams game on Friday (approximately $75K), and the largest handle went to the Steelers/Titans on Sunday Night Football (approximately $269K).
The betting public went 10-6 on the week (using ticket count as a proxy for broad public preference), resulting in a 19.3% return, conservatively assuming the same bet size for all games. The largest point swing from opening to closing line was the Ravens/Eagles game, with the preseason juggernaut Ravens moving from +2.5 to -3 with only 57% of the tickets. Penn State Rookie QB Trace McSorely put in one of the preseason’s best single performances en route to an easy Ravens win, but the game was cut short due to weather, and it’s hit-or-miss whether your sportsbook graded the game as sufficiently complete or not.
To best prepare for managing the BetKarma NFL model sportfolio strategies, we watched all preseason Week 3 games in which expected starters played meaningful minutes, and have summarized our key takeaways for the benefit of subscribers below:
Giants 25 v. Bengals (-1.5 to -3) 23
- The demise of Eli Manning looks overblown. Daniel Jones’ relative success seems to be more a product of good play-calling than exceptional talent. Eli looked strong, even sprinting to throw a block down field – signaling he’s all-in on the season and won’t go down without a fight.
- Andy Dalton looked off on some throws, but overall looked solid, including leading a 70 yard TD drive, capped with a pretty 26 yard pass to C.J. Uzomah. Dalton was 7 of 10 for 104 yards.
Redskins 19 (+2.5 to 1.5) v. Falcons 7
- Case Keenum was outplayed by Dwayne Haskins in this game, but it looks like Keenum has locked up the starting gig. Keenum isn’t going to beat anyone unilaterally, but the offense looks competent enough (especially with a potentially emergent Derrius Guice) to take advantage of vulnerable defenses. Skins defense, the team’s clear strength, got pressure and was able to get off the field as needed.
- Matt Ryan was not kept upright throughout the preseason, this game included. However, Ito Smith looked good, and should complement a healthy Devanta Freeman nicely. The Falcons have a young offensive line (two rookies may be starting on the right side), so it may take until midseason to gel. The defense has thus far stayed healthy (a far cry from last season) which bodes well.
Jaguars 7 (+2.5 to PK) v. Dolphins 22
- Nick Foles is a demonstrable upgrade over Blake Bortles, and his favorite target looks to be speedster Dede Westbrook. However, this offense will still be reliant on Leonard Fournette staying healthy and producing 2017-like numbers. The defense looks better and should be more motivated than last year with a competent offense. Rookie DL Josh Allen looks like this year’s Bradley Chubb. Watch out.
- The Dolphins offensive line looked horrendous. Fitzpatrick was running for his life on almost every snap, but made the best of it, and seems to have won the starting gig. The defense played admirably, and could keep the team in more games than many expect – especially since they are led by a defensive-minded head coach.
Browns 12 (PK to -1) v. Buccaneers 13
- The Browns DL sacked Jameis Winston an outstanding 5 times in the first half. They looked fast and well coordinated and we expect them to live up to the hype over the course of the season. With the improved supporting cast, Myles Garrett will be the AFC Defensive Players of the Year. Baker Mayfield struggled, looking very inaccurate on some throws, with others being dropped by backup WRs, but led team to 3 FGs. He hasn’t played with OBJ or Jarvis Landry all preseason. Rashard Higgins has good chemistry with Mayfield, and should be a solid WR3.
- Bucs offensive line obviously struggled (but this may have been more so due to playing an elite DL), and as a consequence, Winston did not look good and the running game also struggled. Bucs starting offense scored zero points. Bucs young RB Dare Ogunbowale showed some flash, and Chris Godwin looks to be a legit WR2 to go with stud Mike Evans.
Bills 24 (+1.5 to -3.5) v. Lions 20
- Josh Allen threw a horrible interception, but it will not show up in the stat line due to a “roughing the passer” penalty; he does not look like he has materially improved or developed his passing skills over the offseason. We are bearish on Allen’s prospects as a starting QB in the NFL; his running ability is his only redeeming quality.
- Rookie TE T.J. Hockenson looks like a legitimate long-term threat for the Lions passing attack, resembling a young Jimmy Graham. Boneheaded penalties continue to be the Lions downfall, showcasing bad coaching. This is the best supporting cast Stafford has had for awhile, and the Lions DL is near the top in the division.
Cardinals 9 v. Vikings (-4.5 to -6) 20
- Kyler Murray is exciting and (except for a few throws) looked very accurate, including a few thatr he dropped right in the WRs bread basket. This may have been expected, but Murray doesn’t look nearly as fast or as explosive v NFL caliber defenders as he did in college. Fast defensive lineman have kept him from rounding the corner and instead making an inaccurate throw. The Cards OL doesn’t seem like they will be able to protecting him well either; similar to how Rosen got his face ripped off almost every game in 2018.
- Vikings running game should be improved from last year with the return of Dalvin Cook, who we believe has the potential to be the no. 1 RB in the league. The weak link continues to look like Kirk Cousins, whose decision making remains suspect.
Texans 0 (+2.5 to -2) v. Cowboys 34
- The Texans ostensibly improved OL let Deshaun Watson get absolutely destroyed on several occasions, including letting Lamar Miller get swallowed up and reportedly tear his ACL. 2018 was a nightmarish performance by the OL (Watson was sacked over 60 times), and the offseason investments do not look like they are paying off. This needs to be monitored.
- Dak Prescott is best when using his feet to roll out of the pocket, and furthered that narrative with a nice throw after escaping pressure for a TD to Michael Gallup. If Zeke Elliot doesn’t return in time, Tony Pollard should be sufficient to carry the load with the Cowboys’ all-pro offensive line making it look easy.
49ers 27 v. Chiefs (-4 to -4) 17
- Jimmy Garappalo put in his best performance of the preseason after a shaky first possession. The 49ers’ stout running game, which is 4-5 running backs deep, can really help take pressure off Garappalo as he continues to reacclimate himself to live game action.
- Pat Mahomes and this Chiefs offense looks like they haven’t missed a beat, and look two steps faster than anyone on the field. Andy Reid continues to plug and play, regardless of who he has on the field with Mahomes. The KC defense, which should be improved, has not shown signs that he has thus far.
Seahawks 23 (+1 to -3) v. Chargers 15
- Russell Wilson looked sharp and continues to have great chemistry with Tyler Lockett; RBs Penny and Carson both put in solid performances and will make this offense capable of keeping up with the points the depleted defense will inevitably give up this year.
- Philip Rivers didn’t play, and backup Tyrod Taylor looked atrocious. Cardale Jones has consistently performed much better and has a nice crisp deep ball.
Steelers 18 v. Titans (-3 to -1) 6
- The Steelers scored back-to-back TDs on what was mostly the Titans starting defense. Ju Ju Smith-Shuster and James Washington, who both scored TDs, could be the next gen dynamic duo on an explosive Steelers offense. James Connor also continued to not skip a beat, and it’s hard to say he’s any less potent than Le’veon Bell would have been with this team.
- Marcus Mariota looked less than average, but Ryan Tannehill did little to further his own case to be the starter. The Titans’ offensive line let both QBs down.
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Like you, we can’t wait for the NFL season to officially kick-off in just a few weekends, and we hope you will take advantage of following our NFL model sportfolios to help you be a better and more successful bettor in 2019. Check out our summary note to learn more about the strategy and which model sportfolio is best for your risk appetite.
