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1. Tom Brady OVER 311.5 Passing Yards (-110)- This is top overall bet in the entire game for me in total confidence, Brady has passed for 343 and 348 yards in two playoff games this season, and is over 400 yards passing in the last two Super Bowl’s. The Patriots have never had a blowout victory in the Super Bowl, and it’s extremely likely that game-script will keep Brady throwing even late into the second half.
2. Gerald Everett Touchdown (+1200)- This is obviously an unlikely touchdown, hence the odds, but Everett is coming off a four target game (50 yards) against the Saints, and should continue to see increased work against the Patriots on Sunday evening. Much has been made about how good the Patriots are against 11 personnel vs how bad they are against 12 personnel leading up to this game, and if there’s one team that is going to adapt to this matchup it’s Sean McVay, and we know that because he did so against the Saints in the NFL championship game. We should see plenty of two tight ends from the Rams tonight if they want to win this game, and all we need is that coveted end zone target to cash in.
3. Marcus Peters INT – YES (+425)- The odds are good enough on this that I’m willing to take a stab at it, even though I could easily see a scenario where Brady doesn’t throw an interception at all. Basically, Marcus Peters is bad, and I think he will be targeted heavily by the Patriots in this game. The more targets he sees, the more opportunities he has to pick one off, and if there’s one thing Marcus Peters is good at, it’s gambling to turnovers. He has 22 career interceptions, and he would be my top pick on the Rams defense of a potential turnover at these odds.
Game Pick
Rams ML (+115)- I know, the Patriots are a lock to win if you pretty much anyone, but the Rams have been my pick to win the Super Bowl all season, and I’m going to continue riding them here. There has been some late sharp money coming in on them after it was all Patriots early, but I don’t think you need to mess with the points on either side. The Patriots are not as good as they once were, and while that won’t stop them from winning, I think the Rams have the firepower to compete with them in a close game. Like I mentioned above, the Patriots splits against 12 personnel are hilariously bad compared to 11 personnel, and if anyone is smart enough to adapt to that it’s Sean McVay, and the fact that they did such against the Saints gives me the confidence I need. I do think it could all come down to Rob Gronkowski, if he has a big game I don’t see the Rams winning, but I really don’t think he has it left in the tank outside of a big play or two, and I think the game as a whole will come down to the last possession.
MVP Pick
Todd Gurley (+800)- Our discord channel got this a week and a half ago, when we jumped on it at +1200, but even at these odds I’m still interested in the possibility of Gurley being crowned as MVP. Someone pointed out to me that the last time a running back won Super Bowl MVP, I was three years old, but if you think about potential situations, it’s not hard to make a legitimate case. The Rams don’t have a Tom Brady, yes I think Jared Goff is a good Quarterback, but he benefits from Sean McVay’s scheme so much that it’s hard to truly evaluate him both under him and his time under Jeff Fisher. He can make legitimate throws, like the game winning drive against the Saints, but you don’t think about the Rams winning specifically because of a monster game from Jared Goff, unlike you do with Tom Brady and the Patriots. A short time ago, Todd Gurley had top-three odds for the regular season MVP award, now we are getting him at +800…for a single game. C.J. Anderson has been a concern, but Gurley has assured he is healthy and with an extra week of rest he should be locked and loaded for his first Super Bowl appearance. Think about a situation in which the Rams win the game, if the Patriots win…Tom Brady is winning MVP 100%, we saw this in their Super Bowl against the Falcons when James White was the MVP of that game, but it still went to Brady. I don’t think the same can be said for Jared Goff, and if the Rams do win this game, is it really that hard to imagine it being from a massive 100+ rushing and receiving yard game from Todd Gurley? I don’t think so…
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
